General Election 2024 Harris vs Trump (6 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

Today it begins, Kamala has reached the point that she's the Democratic Party nominee:

There's video from today. this link has video from her first public appearance since Biden endorsed her:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/22/live-updates-harris-democrats-biden-drops-out-trump-campaign.html

She spent yesterday on the telephone for most of the day. I read that yesterday that she called the party leaders in all 50 states. That would take me three days.

She's renamed her YouTube channel, that's the where to go for video: https://www.youtube.com/@kamalaharris

This is her video on her channel from two hours ago:



To play it, start it, and then move it up to 5:47. This was one of those live videos which don't start at zero.

I've named this thread General Election 2024 Harris vs Trump

Trump needs an introduction post as well, a MAGA suporter ought to write it: @Farb, @SaintForLife , @Others, calling for someone to please introduce your GOP candidate for this 2024 general election thread.

 

[J-DONK]

I’m familiar with 1930’s Germany. There is no comparison to today. Jews in Germany had been living there for hundreds of years. They weren’t streaming across the border into Germany. They were already assimilated. So your comparison ignores the problem created when undocumented migrants ignore our border laws and come into this country illegally. The Jews were breaking no laws.

You also ignore the fact that the Biden administration all but invited these folks to cross over. I actually read his build back better policy on his website. There was nothing having to do with border enforcement or integrity in that document. He was warned that this would cause a flood of migrants. Repeatedly and he ignore those warning and did what he wanted. His policy is straining social safety nets in just about every state and is costing billions of dollars. It is not and never has been a wise, well thought out, well executed policy. You can’t ignore the first three years and the fact his policy exacerbated the problem causing two the three times more border crossing than any of his predecessors. He sat on his arse for three years and ignored it. He was responsible and Harris was responsible. She said herself in her FOX interview that the incumbent is responsible for what happens on their watch. So by her own see definition, her administration is accountable. As it should be.

What does assimilating, or law breaking have to do with creating outgroups to blame for societial issues?

I don't even understand your second conserative talking point.

In 2016, Trump ran on the same flood of illegal immigrants terrorizing the country. How did Joe Biden cause the issue if it existed before Trump's first term?

You are proving my point. Joe Biden somehow caused an issue that Trump has ran on 3 times. He is going to fix it(thistime)

You are also making specific claims you can't backup. What does "straining social safety nets" mean? You need data to back up claims like Trump fixed illegal immgrantion, Biden then broke it again. You need to show an increase in "social safety net" that is linked to illegal immigrants.

Can you find that?

 

[RobF]

I support trans people, but I also support the idea that by virtue of formerly being male, if you have a physical advantage by virtue of being born male* over an average female athlete you should be restricted from such competition.

* I’m not sure how hormone treatments might mitigate a physical advantage.

They do mitigate a physical advantage, but it remains a complex issue, because the degree to which they do so is one question, and it's a complex question (since it depends on the individual, the sport, etc., etc.). Even where we have an answer, it remains complicated; we wouldn't necessarily say, in general, if an identifiable group of women has, e.g., a 5% advantage on average in one regard over the average woman, then that entire group should be excluded from competing. There would also be the question of whether an individual, who does not necessarily retain a significant advantage, should be excluded on the basis of being part of a group that on average did so. That's complicated by it being impossible to precisely assess on an individual level (as there's no control on an individual level, since an individual can't transition and not transition simultaneously, and individual performance changes over time with training, practice, and other factors as well).

So for example, if we take a case study of Lia Thomas, since it's come up, swimcloud has pre and post transition information:

Lia Thomas

Austin, TX

www.swimcloud.com

We can see there that Lia Thomas's winning time in the 500 yard freestyle in the NCAA Division 1 Women's Championship was 4:33.24 (for reference, this is some way off the women's record, by Katie Ledecky, 4:24.06; that was exceptional, but the top ten fastest times are in the range 4:24.06 to 4:31.90).

We can also see at the same championship that she finished 5th in the 200 yard freestyle (1:43.40) , and 8th in the 100 yard freestyle (48.18).

We can also see that her actual best time recorded, pre-transition, in the 500 yard free was 4:18.72. Which would not only have won, but would have beaten the women's record by more than five seconds.

So we can see that her performance did drop significantly post-transition, bringing her into the range of women's performances.

But the question of whether that's fair or not remains highly debatable, because it very much depends on how you define it. She clearly was not, in fact, competing as a man, at her pre-transition male level, and she clearly could be - and was - beaten by other women quite a lot. So in that fundamental sense, you could regard it as fair.

That said, she went from, for example, three 2nd place finishes in the men's Ivy League Championships in 2019, to three first place finishes in the women's Ivy League Championships in 2022. That shows she was a competitive swimmer before, but it also shows substantial improvement. Some people have argued that improvement indicates it's unfair, also suggesting that, for example, her 500 yard free time dropping ~6% indicates the same unfair advantage, on the basis that the average difference between men and women is typically 10-11%.

The problem with that is that, as I mentioned before, is that's comparing an individual against group averages, which is not necessarily accurate. What we can't do is compare how Lia Thomas did with how she would have done in 2022 if she hadn't transitioned. If she'd have continued to improve, that difference would be more than 6%; but it's impossible to say to what extent she would have.

So in conclusion, yes, we can see that transitioning does mitigate physical advantages, but there's quite a few studies indicating some advantage is retained on average; it's difficult to quantify this on a group and especially on an individual level, and it's also difficult to define how, and at what point, to draw a line (given that people are naturally varied and have lots of advantages and disadvantages from other biological properties; at what point does a particular advantage become unfair to the point of exclusion?).

That's why I personally continue to take the position that it should be a process, carried out by the sport's governing bodies, with rules adjusted on the basis of the facts. And not by popular demand from an uninformed pitchfork-wielding mob.

 

[Poppy]

Transexuals are being demonized like immigrants. I don't agree with transexuals competing in women's competitions, but that is rare, yet it is being used as a tool to rationalize discrimination and demonization of all trans people. It is similar to the treatment that used to be doled out to gay people. They are human beings, and we should respect their human rights.

you have no arguement from me there.

 

[TampaJoe]

What does assimilating, or law breaking have to do with creating outgroups to blame for societial issues?

I don't even understand your second conserative talking point.

In 2016, Trump ran on the same flood of illegal immigrants terrorizing the country. How did Joe Biden cause the issue if it existed before Trump's first term?

You are proving my point. Joe Biden somehow caused an issue that Trump has ran on 3 times. He is going to fix it(thistime)

You are also making specific claims you can't backup. What does "straining social safety nets" mean? You need data to back up claims like Trump fixed illegal immgrantion, Biden then broke it again. You need to show an increase in "social safety net" that is linked to illegal immigrants.

Can you find that?

I thought we were talking about deportation of illegal immigrants. My bad. Cause if we were talking about deporting illegal immigrants then their legal status is relevant in my view. Nobody is talking about deporting legal immigrants or all members of a specific ethnic or racial group.

Further nobody is claiming that Biden created illegal immigration nor that Trump completely solved the problem. I didn’t make that claim. But Trump didn’t make it worse. Biden did. Much worse. Two to three times worse than any of his predecessors. And if you don’t known that it is putting a strain on our hospitals and schools housing and law enforcement then you aren’t really plugged into current events. It’s not a made up issue. Ask any mayor in any major city if it’s straining their resources. Ask any school superintendent.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

That's why I personally continue to take the position that it should be a process, carried out by the sport's governing bodies, with rules adjusted on the basis of the facts. And not by popular demand from an uninformed pitchfork-wielding mob.

I can't agree with this enough. It's disgusting that this is made to be a national political issue - the entire purpose is to demonize an at risk minority.

I don't think saying transgender athletes can't compete as their preferred gender is some terrible position. It raises really difficult questions about what is fair, the purpose of sport and why we have gendered sports in the first place. Ultimately, transwomen are not considered to be women by society - that's really the issue. As someone firmly in the transgender rights camp, I don't fault someone for saying they aren't women. However, I will also say this drive to now more carefully categorize women is very dangerous, and honestly feels like it would be more dangerous to women than just following another traditional American virture 'Mind your business'.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

I thought we were talking about deportation of illegal immigrants. My bad. Cause if we were talking about deporting illegal immigrants then their legal status is relevant in my view. Nobody is talking about deporting legal immigrants or all members of a specific ethnic or racial group.

Yes, some people are talking about deporting legal immigrants - that's part of the whole de-naturalization discussion going on in the proposed Trump administration.

 

[TampaJoe]

There used to be a show call Retromercial that showed old commercials from the 50s to 70s

Those commercials told you what the product was, what it did, why what it did was good and why you should buy it

That was a long time ago

I get the point you're making about marketing, but I disagree that what's happening

i wouldn't call what the right has specialized in as marketing, or messaging or selling

It's more of a carvival barker who's only job is to get you to pay 2 bits to see the three headed chicken

Say whatever lies you can, and when called for lying, just keep lying

It was shameful that Trump did (and was allowed) to claim the election was stolen, immigrants stealing all the jobs, haitians eating pets

"Vote for me and see the Fiji Mermaid, I mean, the 'concept' of a great health care plan"

I won’t debate with you that Trump isn’t fit for the job. We agree on that. I don’t want a hat or a watch or sneakers with his name on them. I wouldn’t want my kids getting Huckabee’s propaganda book nor would I want Trumps coffee table book in my house. Hawking all that crap is below the office. I’m not a big fan of his business style nor how he manages and deals with his staff. No reputable school in this country teaches Trump Management. He is an arse. Major league arse and he’s proud of it. But he’s not the second coming of Hitler and he is not a threat to Democracy in my view. So all the ads and the claims to the contrary were wasted on much of the country because they didn’t buy into the premise.

I wasn’t gonna vote for Harris anyway but I wasn’t given a reason to vote for her. Much of the air space was taken with “Vote for her cause he is a Hitler or a threat to Democracy”. If one doesn’t buy into that rhetoric there has to be something else to motivate people to vote for her. It wasn’t there IMV.

 

[TampaJoe]

Yes, some people are talking about deporting legal immigrants - that's part of the whole de-naturalization discussion going on in the proposed Trump administration.

That would take a constitutional amendment and there isn’t the requisite support for such a thing. So it isn’t a serious conversation.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

That would take a constitutional amendment and there isn’t the requisite support for such a thing. So it isn’t a serious conversation.

I'm not so sure... there are a class of legal immigrants that are not US citizens that can be deported without a Constitutional amendment, or at least it appears to be open to interpretation on whether they can be deported. The point being, very prominent people in Trump's inner circle, are in fact, discussing deporting legal immigrants.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

I wasn’t gonna vote for Harris anyway but I wasn’t given a reason to vote for her. Much of the air space was taken with “Vote for her cause he is a Hitler or a threat to Democracy”. If one doesn’t buy into that rhetoric there has to be something else to motivate people to vote for her. It wasn’t there IMV.

I find this interesting b/c I thought her economic policies were vastly superior as well. Do you disagree with that, or was it that you did not hear about the differences? I knew about the differences, so I'm curious to see what kind of messaging gets through and which ones don't.

 

[MT15]

I feel the same. If you have the Y chromosome you are naturally bigger,stronger,and faster than 95% of females

No, not the mere presence of a Y chromosome. Your body has to go through puberty as a male to see the results. If you do not experience puberty as a male, your body won’t be statistically different than a biological female. With hormonal supplements, your body will be indistinguishable from a biological female.

So that’s the entire argument. People like Poppy want to exclude all trans people from sports, even if they have never gone through puberty, and thus have zero biological advantage. Even though people try to explain, they don’t care. Because of propaganda from the right. So yay, let’s punish trans people, for reasons.

Also, even with full natural puberty, I think the overlap on strength and muscle development isn’t as stark as you put it. I don’t believe just any man is bigger, stronger, faster than 95% of females. There’s a lot more overlap than that.

 

[J-DONK]

I thought we were talking about deportation of illegal immigrants. My bad. Cause if we were talking about deporting illegal immigrants then their legal status is relevant in my view. Nobody is talking about deporting legal immigrants or all members of a specific ethnic or racial group.

Further nobody is claiming that Biden created illegal immigration nor that Trump completely solved the problem. I didn’t make that claim. But Trump didn’t make it worse. Biden did. Much worse. Two to three times worse than any of his predecessors. And if you don’t known that it is putting a strain on our hospitals and schools housing and law enforcement then you aren’t really plugged into current events. It’s not a made up issue. Ask any mayor in any major city if it’s straining their resources. Ask any school superintendent.

You are making all these claims with zero data to back it up. I don't know that illegal immigration was worse under Biden. I don't know that the social services are strained because of illegal immigration. Are you ever going to provide a source for these claims?

Here is a conserative souce for the first half of the Biden admin, that shows the opposite.

https://www.cato.org/blog/new-data-show-migrants-were-more-likely-be-released-trump-biden

In absolute terms, the Biden DHS is removing 3.5 times as many people per month as the Trump DHS did. These figures are important for understanding how each administration has carried out border enforcement.

During the Trump administration, DHS made 1.4 million arrests—what it calls “encounters”—in fiscal years 2019 and 2020 (24 months). Of those people arrested, only 47 percent were removed as of December 31, 2021, which includes people arrested by Trump and removed by Biden, and 52 percent were released into the United States.

 

[MT15]

I actually read his build back better policy on his website.

That never passed. So it wasn’t implemented.

 

[TampaJoe]

I find this interesting b/c I thought her economic policies were vastly superior as well. Do you disagree with that, or was it that you did not hear about the differences? I knew about the differences, so I'm curious to see what kind of messaging gets through and which ones don't.

Other than a broad references no. The only somewhat specific proposal I heard was giving first time homeowners 50k (aggravating inflation in home prices) to be offset by some vague reference to incentivizing home builders. I can only assume she would continue the same Biden policies. And I didn’t think much of Biden’s policies.

 

[TampaJoe]

That never passed. So it wasn’t implemented.

He implemented much of that via executive order.

 

[MT15]

Nobody is talking about deporting legal immigrants or all members of a specific ethnic or racial group.

Yes they sure are. Both Trump and Vance (IIRC) have promised to revoke the legal status of Haitian refugees for one example. Both have also flirted again with a Muslim ban verbally.

 

[MT15]

He implemented much of that via executive order.

And most of it was blocked by the courts.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Other than a broad references no. The only somewhat specific proposal I heard was giving first time homeowners 50k (aggravating inflation in home prices) to be offset by some vague reference to incentivizing home builders. I can only assume she would continue the same Biden policies. And I didn’t think much of Biden’s policies.

All her policies were on her campaign's website, and several newspapers did outlines of both Trump and Harris' proposals. I find it odd that people talk about not knowing some of this stuff... I did a quick google search and I get several articles about both of them.

I also find it odd that we already went through one Trump administration where the economy did not perform significantly better than under Obama but did increase the deficit massively even before Covid. And then compare against Biden where he came into office with an economy that was halted b/c of Covid and will leave with arguably the best economy in the world right now.