General Election 2024 Harris vs Trump (13 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

Today it begins, Kamala has reached the point that she's the Democratic Party nominee:

There's video from today. this link has video from her first public appearance since Biden endorsed her:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/22/live-updates-harris-democrats-biden-drops-out-trump-campaign.html

She spent yesterday on the telephone for most of the day. I read that yesterday that she called the party leaders in all 50 states. That would take me three days.

She's renamed her YouTube channel, that's the where to go for video: https://www.youtube.com/@kamalaharris

This is her video on her channel from two hours ago:



To play it, start it, and then move it up to 5:47. This was one of those live videos which don't start at zero.

I've named this thread General Election 2024 Harris vs Trump

Trump needs an introduction post as well, a MAGA suporter ought to write it: @Farb, @SaintForLife , @Others, calling for someone to please introduce your GOP candidate for this 2024 general election thread.

 

[J-DONK]

FYI: Her worst miss was a 5 point margin.

If you give Trump that best case scenario, Trump doesn't win a blue wall state if he wins Iowa by 2.

Also, we should all be on polymarket right now betting that Dems win NC.

 

[MT15]

Oh, and to cap tonight off, Daily Beast has tapes of Epstein talking about Trump 2 years before he died where he recounts how Trump told him his favorite thing was sleeping with the wives of his friends. And other such depravity. Haven’t read it or listened, FYI, I would believe just about anything about Trump so they don’t have to convince me.

Listen To The Jeffrey Epstein Tapes: ‘I Was Donald Trump’s Closest Friend’

Explosive tapes recorded by author Michael Wolff show Epstein claiming Trump liked to “f---” his friends’ wives and first slept with Melania on the Lolita Express.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[Nebaghead]

This is from Nate Silvers blog about the Selzer poll and its impact on the model.

Releasing this poll took an incredible amount of guts because — let me state this as carefully as I can — if you had to play the odds, this time Selzer will probably be wrong. Harris’s chances of winning Iowa nearly doubled in our model from 9 percent to 17 percent tonight, which isn’t nothing. Polymarket shows a similar trend, moving from 6 percent to 18 percent after the survey. But that still places Harris’s odds at around 5:1 against.

 

[LA - L.A.]

This is from Nate Silvers blog about the Selzer poll and its impact on the model.

Releasing this poll took an incredible amount of guts because — let me state this as carefully as I can — if you had to play the odds, this time Selzer will probably be wrong. Harris’s chances of winning Iowa nearly doubled in our model from 9 percent to 17 percent tonight, which isn’t nothing. Polymarket shows a similar trend, moving from 6 percent to 18 percent after the survey. But that still places Harris’s odds at around 5:1 against.

Silver has no credibility with me. He's like that guy who keeps predicting a team's first round draft picks until one year he eventually gets one right. Then he starts thumping his chest about it and others make the mistake of thinking he has some special insight, inside sources, or superior smarts, just because the dice finally rolled in his favor one time.

Placing odds on the outcome of a system that is both complex and complicated is as unscientific as it gets and is an absurd application of math as well.

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[UriUT]

This is from Nate Silvers blog about the Selzer poll and its impact on the model.

Releasing this poll took an incredible amount of guts because — let me state this as carefully as I can — if you had to play the odds, this time Selzer will probably be wrong. Harris’s chances of winning Iowa nearly doubled in our model from 9 percent to 17 percent tonight, which isn’t nothing. Polymarket shows a similar trend, moving from 6 percent to 18 percent after the survey. But that still places Harris’s odds at around 5:1 against.

Christ, why would he bring in Polymarket? As a supposedly legit pollster? It's crazy. I had a heated discussion with my brother before Biden stepped down. One of the things that he insists on as a predictive measure are the markets. In his mind, it doesn't make logical sense that the market can be wrong...(let alone one where it's offshore AND American's cannot participate; points I don't think he is aware). These measurements that we're obsessed with are being gamed. It's actually natural that 0 sum-obsessed, unscrupulous participants are players of the game, come to think of it. We have to establish more self-awareness.

 

[zztop]

When it was discovered that he wears diapers his supporters claimed that real men wear diapers. What will they say in response to this?

Much like the ear bandage some started to wear, as some kind of badge or honor or whatever, some apparently took to wearing diapers.

 

[J-DONK]

Christ, why would he bring in Polymarket? As a supposedly legit pollster? It's crazy. I had a heated discussion with my brother before Biden stepped down. One of the things that he insists on as a predictive measure are the markets. In his mind, it doesn't make logical sense that the market can be wrong...(let alone one where it's offshore AND American's cannot participate; points I don't think he is aware). These measurements that we're obsessed with are being gamed. It's actually natural that 0 sum-obsessed, unscrupulous participants are players of the game, come to think of it. We have to establish more self-awareness.

These betting markets were wrong before, famously, with the romney whale.

Bet against them if you want, and take their money.

 

[Nebaghead]

The point was how much weight this poll has on different models. It is positive news for anyone who wants Harris to win.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

Much like the ear bandage some started to wear, as some kind of badge or honor or whatever, some apparently took to wearing diapers.

Biden: Trump supporters are walking around with that on their heads as if its something to be proud of.

The next day...
Me:

 

[MT15]

The point was how much weight this poll has on different models. It is positive news for anyone who wants Harris to win.

Yeah, it’s positive but not because of anything Silver has to say about it. He has jumped the shark, IMO. Should no longer be considered an authority. JMO.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Christ, why would he bring in Polymarket?

Ever see the episode of South Park about how hard it is to tell an advertisement from a news story, because of how advertising has corrupted almost everything on the internet? I think it applies here.

Polymarket Hires Nate Silver After Taking in $265M of Bets on U.S. Election: Report

As the U.S. presidential election enters its final stretch, crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket is striking while the iron is hot by hiring popular statistician and writer Nate Silver as an adviser.

finance.yahoo.com

As a supposedly legit pollster? It's crazy. I had a heated discussion with my brother before Biden stepped down. One of the things that he insists on as a predictive measure are the markets. In his mind, it doesn't make logical sense that the market can be wrong...(let alone one where it's offshore AND American's cannot participate; points I don't think he is aware). These measurements that we're obsessed with are being gamed. It's actually natural that 0 sum-obsessed, unscrupulous participants are players of the game, come to think of it. We have to establish more self-awareness.

 

[UriUT]

These betting markets were wrong before, famously, with the romney whale.

Bet against them if you want, and take their money.

Queue the Selena gomez scene in The Big Short explaining side bets.

 

[MT15]

It makes me sad and angry that this is necessary.

 

[UriUT]

Ever see the episode of South Park about how hard it is to tell an advertisement from a news story, because of how advertising has corrupted almost everything on the internet? I think it applies here.

Polymarket Hires Nate Silver After Taking in $265M of Bets on U.S. Election: Report

As the U.S. presidential election enters its final stretch, crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket is striking while the iron is hot by hiring popular statistician and writer Nate Silver as an adviser.

finance.yahoo.com

I had seen that he was hired by a thiel company. Is this the same one?

 

[LA - L.A.]

I had seen that he was hired by a thiel company. Is this the same one?

It appears that it might be.

Peter Thiel Invests In Polymarket Political Betting Platform—But The Future Of Gambling On Elections Remains Unclear

Regulators proposed new rules Friday that would explicitly ban gambling on political contests.

www.forbes.com

 

[UriUT]

It appears that it might be.

Peter Thiel Invests In Polymarket Political Betting Platform—But The Future Of Gambling On Elections Remains Unclear

Regulators proposed new rules Friday that would explicitly ban gambling on political contests.

www.forbes.com

He's the real brain in these tech bros operations. Elon is a joke. Thiel was the one that revitalized paypal after musk ran it to the ground.

 

[LA - L.A.]

He's the real brain in these tech bros operations. Elon is a joke. Thiel was the one that revitalized paypal after musk ran it to the ground.

I agree, but that didn't stop Musk from publicly taking credit for turning PayPal around. Musk is worse than Edison was.