First presidential debate (11 Viewers)

[Optimus Prime]

Since we usually have a separate thread for these
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NEW YORK (AP) — President Joe Biden begins an intense period of private preparations Friday at Camp David for what may be the most consequential presidential debate in decades.

The 81-year-old Democrat’s team is aware that he cannot afford an underwhelming performance when he faces Republican rival Donald Trump for 90 minutes on live television Thursday night. Biden’s team is expecting aggressive attacks on his physical and mental strength, his record on the economy and immigration and even his family.

Trump, 78 and ever confident, will stay on the campaign trail before going to his Florida estate next week for two days of private meetings as part of an informal prep process.

The former president’s allies are pushing him to stay focused on his governing plans, but they’re expecting him to be tested by pointed questions about his unrelenting focus on election fraud, his role in the erosion of abortion rights and his unprecedented legal baggage.

Thursday’s debate on CNN will be full of firsts, with the potential to reshape the presidential race. Never before in the modern era have two presumptive nominees met on the debate stage so early in the general election season. Never before have two White House contenders faced off at such advanced ages, with widespread questions about their readiness.

And never before has a general election debate participant been saddled with a felony conviction. The debate-stage meeting comes just two weeks before Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on 34 felony counts in his New York hush money trial.

“You can argue this will be the most important debate, at least in my lifetime,” said Democratic strategist Jim Messina, 54, who managed former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign.

PRESSURE ON BIDEN


The ground rules for Thursday’s debate, the first of two scheduled meetings, are unusual.

The candidates agreed to meet at a CNN studio in Atlanta with no audience. Each candidate’s microphone will be muted, except when it’s his turn to speak. No props or prewritten notes will be allowed onstage. The candidates will be given only a pen, a pad of paper and a bottle of water.

There will be no opening statements. A coin flip determined that Biden would stand at the podium to the viewer’s right, while Trump would deliver the final closing statement.


The next debate won’t be until September. Any stumbles Thursday will be hard to erase or replace quickly.………..

How Biden and Trump are taking very different approaches to preparing for next week's debate

President Joe Biden is beginning an intense period of private debate preparations at Camp David. His trip comes as officials in both parties scramble to set expectations for what may be the most consequential presidential debate in decades.

apnews.com

 

[bird]

I meant Obama's policies during his presidency led to the conditions that gave us Trump.

Failure again. Obama’s policies had the country in far better shape. The election of Trump was due to several things. The primary reason was racism, period. White fear of changing demographics drove enough people to vote that the electoral college, itself a sop to slaveholders from the establishment of the constitution, allowed a completely unsuitable and incompetent oaf to take office.

 

[LA - L.A.]

My eyes, and ears are clearly lying to me.

They really are.

 

[LA - L.A.]

You have created a strawman. Congrats.

You are arguing about a fictional conditional topic that I've never stated, nor anyone in this thread I believe.

Have fun with that.

Edit to add: I'm going to try one last time in good faith. If you had a coworker, that saw you on conference call, and then messaged you privately, and asked if you are ok. They then followed up and inquired if you have ever taken a cognitive decline test. Would you describe that person as having full faith, and support in your abilities?

If they told one of our coworkers "if others want him tested before he gets the promotion, then him and that other guy, in line for the same promotion who seems unfit, should both take a test" while also repeatedly and very sincerely telling our coworker that they trust my judgement, then yeah I'd say they have full faith in me. They seem to have more faith in me doing better on the test than the other guy and they also have faith in my judgement. What more could I ask for?

This is not hard.

It's really not, so why are you having such a hard time with it?

You guys are willfully obtuse it seems.

Have you looked in a mirror lately?

It's a small topic that you and Sam just won't let go.

It takes two to tango, well three, wait...no actually four in this case...scratch that five. This tango is getting entirely too crowded.

 

[bird]

Wall Street bailout with nobody prosecuted, IRS targeted conservative groups, Operation Fast and Furious, Benghazi, His FBI letting Hillary off with no charges on her classified document scandal, etc.

Wall Street bailout was not a crime and, unfortunately, due to the circumstances was required. Or perhaps if those institutions holding your investments had been allowed to fail you would have been happy. The lack of prosecution or at least the removal of top management at those institutions should have happened. Yet, oddly enough, your party opposed regulation of the very financial instruments that drove the Great Recession. How odd.

The IRS did not target conservative groups to the exclusion of liberal ones. Yes, more conservative groups were targeted because, imo, they did not meet the legal requirements of what they claimed to be. The same applies to liberal groups.

Fast and Furious was part of a series of gun running operations that started under George W. Bush.

HRC testified for 11 hours before congress and despite your fevered dreams Benghazi shown to be the fevered dream of the RW who simply hated her.

Should Colin Powell have been charged regarding using private server? HRC did not have a classified information scandal despite your fevered dream.

 

[LA - L.A.]

This comment is very perceptive. The media is, like they have been doing, ignoring the crazy from Trump and focusing really hard on Biden. Trump just yesterday posted on Truth Social calling for Liz Cheney and the rest of the J6 committee to be charged with treason and tried by military tribunals. Along with prominent Democrats, and some Republicans like Mike Pence and McConnell. And no real news media is covering it. None. It should have been the lead story on the network news.

Kevin's small potatoes, we need to talk about Trump. non-stop.

 

[bird]

Because only authoritarians s and bananas republics throw the political loser in jail.

Or there was nothing there and Trump knew that his actions were criminal

 

[bird]

Sure. This might be the dumbest attempt at a gotcha attempt I have seen on here and that says a lot.

Can you tell me who is the 'convicted felon' is out of all the presidents or candidates of the past?

Doesn’t matter who was in the past. What matters is the present. Your candidate is a convicted felon.

 

[bird]

Is there a good chance Biden will not win? Sure.

Is there a good chance Trump is a danger to the country and the world? His rambling, lying and willingness to fluff RW dictators shows this.

Will changing the Democratic ticket result in the defeat of Trump? Highly unlikely. Newsom
will be painted even worse as a socialist/communist/Marxist by people who don’t know what those words even mean. Harris might stand a chance but I find it unlikely simply due to continued racism informing the belief structure of too many people in this country.

Not changing the ticket will mean a good chance of losing. Changing the ticket just about insures it.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Is there a good chance Biden will not win? Sure.

Is there a good chance Trump is a danger to the country and the world? His rambling, lying and willingness to fluff RW dictators shows this.

Will changing the Democratic ticket result in the defeat of Trump? Highly unlikely. Newsom
will be painted even worse as a socialist/communist/Marxist by people who don’t know what those words even mean. Harris might stand a chance but I find it unlikely simply due to continued racism informing the belief structure of too many people in this country.

Not changing the ticket will mean a good chance of losing. Changing the ticket just about insures it.

We're very much in a Scylla and Charybdis dilemma.

 

[Incumbent]

Even if it's only a dead heat, that's still gotta be concerning. Biden being the incumbent ordinarily should have a substantial lead in his own party's polling. That it's a dead heat means a lot of people are questioning Biden’s ability to serve another 4 years as President.

Ultimately, I think the best odds lie with Biden proving to the public that the debate was simply a poor performance for him and that he's fine health-wise. Anything else and the outcomes are much less certain.

Statistical dead heat polling very likely just shows there is a baked-in opposition to Trump that isn't going away and transfers to any Dem candidate. The floor is high for all of them. The trick is figuring out who has the highest ceiling and particularly, in the places and with the people where the election will be won. Nobody knows that going off of gut feelings, which is why this is such a gamble, no matter what happens. And four months for somebody else to mount a presidential campaign is going to be a daunting task.

If they can get it turned around, a resurgent Biden would still probably be the best option but it's unclear if he can rebound from his debate performance. And he has challenges to overcome with some leftwing voting groups. Harris is interesting because she could make some states competitive that we are currently overlooking if she can spark enthusiasm with young voters and black voters the way Obama did. She wouldn't have to hit the same high marks he did because she's running against a candidate who is turning off some traditional republican voters and is facing significant challenges with women. But she'd have to win people over in a short amount of time and taking polling for what it is, there are indications she is struggling with favorability even compared to Biden.

Whether Harris would actually be a stronger candidate than Biden remains a subject of deep debate among Democratic strategists. CNN’s postdebate polls showed that Harris has a 29 percent favorable rating, a few points below Biden, who has a 34 percent favorable rating.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4752714-kamala-harris-stronger-joe-biden-democrats/

 

[MT15]

Harris Newsom is probably the best possible combination. I'll explain based on general societal views and not my personal views and that it's really to create the a ticket with people who have the least objections from the voting public.

Keep in mind that all of these people are in a dead heat according to polling, so none of them offer a real polling advantage. I haven't seen any polling on Shapiro, so he seems like too much of a risk at this time. That could change with polling.

Harris has to be at the top of the ticket for financial and demographic reasons. People have been saying Biden is losing the black vote, without any objective, definitive data to support it. Same thing with young votes. If you want to do your best to lose black and young voters, then by all means make her take a seat at the back or just leave her out completely.

Harris is a non-white woman, that's a double barrelled obstacle for her to overcome. It shouldn't be, but it is. So Whitmer's out. Two women turns a double barrel challenge into a Howitzer problem.

Buttigieg is out, because his homosexuality poses extra challenges as well.

That leaves Newsom as the least objectionable and as a VP any "skeletons" he has want be as damaging. He just has the accetpable time of person to the most voters, and unfortuantely white straight Christian male fits that better than the other options who poll as well as Biden and as Harris does. Here's the rub, Newsom is very sincere when he says he's not getting into the mix. He'll have to be persuaded first and it may be easier to persuade him if Biden voluntarily steps down and Newsom isn't replacing Biden directly.

I think Harris would be able to make herself more acceptable to a majority of voters than Trump, even though she's a non-white woman. I think having Newsom would help her with that. I think Harris would make Trump look like a fool in any debate format and Newsom would do the same with whoever Trump picks as his VP. Harris can legally use the money Biden has already raised and would likely retain all of the current campaign staffers and volunteers which is critical already. Newsom is a also a strong fundraiser.

The sneaky advantage I think Harris has that polls have been whiffing on since Dobbs overturned Roe, is women and young voters. They are voting at higher rates than polls have picked up on and they are a large voting block. Harris is liked by both groups. Harris has also been attacked some by Trump's camp and she's weathered it well. We don't know how any of the other options will hold up to Trump's attacks and it's a big risk to go into that without a clue.

If Biden is replaced, I thimk Harris-Newsom gives the only viable chance of winning. Despite what people think, a presidential campaign is not simply just a popularty contest. Popularity will get you nowhere with out the money that's need to execute the collasal logitstical undertaking that a presidential campaign is.

Both from the same state. I don’t know how to get around it, but it would have to be dealt with. Same reason people don’t think Rubio has any chance of being the VP pick now that Trump changed his residency to FL.

 

[porculator]

Statistical dead heat polling very likely just shows there is a baked-in opposition to Trump that isn't going away and transfers to any Dem candidate. The floor is high for all of them. The trick is figuring out who has the highest ceiling and particularly, in the places and with the people where the election will be won. Nobody knows that going off of gut feelings, which is why this is such a gamble, no matter what happens. And four months for somebody else to mount a presidential campaign is going to be a daunting task.

If they can get it turned around, a resurgent Biden would still probably be the best option but it's unclear if he can rebound from his debate performance. And he has challenges to overcome with some leftwing voting groups. Harris is interesting because she could make some states competitive that we are currently overlooking if she can spark enthusiasm with young voters and black voters the way Obama did. She wouldn't have to hit the same high marks he did because she's running against a candidate who is turning off some traditional republican voters and is facing significant challenges with women. But she'd have to win people over in a short amount of time and taking polling for what it is, there are indications she is struggling with favorability even compared to Biden.

Whether Harris would actually be a stronger candidate than Biden remains a subject of deep debate among Democratic strategists. CNN’s postdebate polls showed that Harris has a 29 percent favorable rating, a few points below Biden, who has a 34 percent favorable rating.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4752714-kamala-harris-stronger-joe-biden-democrats/

Yes I'm pretty sure there is no longer any pro-Biden vote. It is all an anti-Trump vote at this point. The Joe Cool image where he stood there and flashed his grin in 2020 while Trump dug his own grave has been replaced by a cadaver who will gladly take the shovel from Trump and keep digging for himself.

Trump is a weak candidate and anyone with a functional brain can capitalize on it. Even Kamala. Others will get dragged down to his level and mumble about golf handicaps.

 

[Incumbent]

Yes I'm pretty sure there is no longer any pro-Biden vote. It is all an anti-Trump vote at this point.

That's a distinction that might be too difficult to parse, but I still see enthusiasm for Biden in political junkie circles on social media and enthusiasm at his campaign stops (lukewarm people don't tend to show up for those kinds of events). It's not just this board where people are expressing a belief that Joe is still the candidate with the best chances. In that sense, I'd rate it as pro-Biden. But I agree with you that there is a lot of overlap and I think it's also true that Biden has never enjoyed the kind of fervent following that other candidates inspire. He doesn't have the personality or the speaking skills to accomplish that. He's just an old, familiar guy that a lot of people feel comfortable with. That was a workable contrast to Trump in 2020. Remains to be see if that can hold in this election.

 

[Lapaz]

I think saying she’s turned is an embellishment of what she actually said. She’s acknowledging that it’s valid for other people to have concerns. Her advice is for Biden to sit down for unscripted interviews with credible journalists. She thinks both candidates should undergo evaluations to demonstrate fitness.


“When people ask that question, it’s legitimate — of both candidates,” she added. “What we saw on the other side was lying.”

Ms. Pelosi heaped praise on Mr. Biden, saying he was “masterful in helping to write and to pass” a slew of legislation that Democrats passed early in his presidency when they had control of Congress. “He has a vision,” she said. “He has knowledge. He has judgment. He has a strategic thinking and the rest.”

[…]

After the interview, a spokesman for Ms. Pelosi, Ian Krager, reached out to The New York Times with a statement: “Speaker Pelosi has full confidence in President Biden and looks forward to attending his inauguration on January 20, 2025.”

Backing Biden, Pelosi Calls Questions About Debate Performance ‘Legitimate’

The former speaker said Trump told lies during the exchange, and it is fair to ask of both candidates: “Is this an episode or is this a condition?”

www.nytimes.com

I'm very concerned that Biden won't survive a 2nd term until he's 86, but Trump's mind won't either. His lying is an indication to me that he has lost some of his ability to rationalize. Trump just babbles nonsense sometimes, even when not under pressure. Unfortunately, Biden did that a little too when under pressure in the debate, but if given time to grapple with his language impediment, his mind is still good. The same can't be said about Trump.

 

[DaveXA]

I'm very concerned that Biden won't survive a 2nd term until he's 86, but Trump's mind won't either. His lying is an indication to me that he has lost some of his ability to rationalize. Trump just babbles nonsense sometimes, even when not under pressure. Unfortunately, Biden did that a little too when under pressure in the debate, but if given time to grapple with his language impediment, his mind is still good. The same can't be said about Trump.

Trump's mind is already in the gutter. We should be so lucky when he loses it.

 

[Incumbent]

I'm very concerned that Biden won't survive a 2nd term until he's 86, but Trump's mind won't either. His lying is an indication to me that he has lost some of his ability to rationalize. Trump just babbles nonsense sometimes, even when not under pressure. Unfortunately, Biden did that a little too when under pressure in the debate, but if given time to grapple with his language impediment, his mind is still good. The same can't be said about Trump.

I think the only reason to be concerned about whether Biden can survive a second term would be a lack of confidence in Harris. Otherwise, why does it really matter? I suppose there could be a worry that Biden could reach a point where he acts irrationally, endangering the country, but that's already openly a part of the only other viable option, and that guy is bragging about doing just that. Of the two sides, people have to come to their own belief about which administration is more likely to rein in their guy if he becomes a threat. One side will do that, the other is going to be carrying out those threats as part of the plan.

 

[CoolBrees]

According to Reuter's (not a handwringing organization), over two dozen Democratic congresspersons are about to call for him to step aside.

These aren't a few scattered voices. This is gaining momentum.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-reassure-democratic-governors-meeting-after-shaky-debate-performance-2024-07-02/

 

[SamAndreas]

From that document:

Nothing about this poll makes any argument for replacing Biden, let alone a strong or definitive argument. Let's break it down objectively and rationally.

The spread is Biden at the low end with 47.5% and Whitmer at the high end of 49.7% in the a two way tipping point state.

That's a whopping 2.25% spread from a poll that is suspiciously lacking it's margin of error. I've never seen a poll that had a margin of error of less than 2.25%.

It's irrational to think this poll proves that any of them have a better chance than any of the rest of them. It's a statistical dead heat among all of them. So it's weird to me that you just say "they all do better than Biden" which misleading suggests they are all doing significantly better than Biden, when as a matter of objective fact they are not doing significantly better than Biden.

The Name Recognition Adjusted formulas are highly subjective and I think they should be ignored, but let's look at those as well. Biden's at the low end of the Tipping Point State at 47.5% and Buttigieg & Whitmer are tied at the high end with 51.1%. That's a whopping 3.6% spread and most likely well within the margin of error. As a general, it's wise to be suspicious of any poll that doesn't provide it's margin of error for exactly this reason.

What this poll rationally suggests is that it's not time to freak out about replacing Biden, because none of the alternatives have a real advantage over Biden and everyone of them except Harris would be starting out at a $0.00 dollar to Trump's over $100M to spend right out the gate with no hopes of catching up in four months. That's a severe and impactful disadvantage that would be hard to overcome.

Also keep in mind, only Biden is being attacked at the moment. None of the other candidates have been attacked by Trump. Republicans and PAC's. Even with that benefit the other candidates only have statistically irrelevant leads over Biden. What happens when they are the candidate getting attacked?

No one knows, but what we do know is that even with all the attacks and the poor debate performance Biden is in a statistical dead heat with the other candidates who have no money and have not been attacked. It's completely irrational to conclude that any of the other candidates have a definitive advantage over Trump.

I think I've already seen, and right away pitched this one into the trash.

If so you spent a lot of time here analyzing a, a, """document,""" for which the persons or things creating it failed to attach their name.

You did the analisis well, but it should have remained in the trash because where I put it because the student, whoever it was, didn't put their name on that ??? polling report. .