First presidential debate (1 Viewer)

[Optimus Prime]

Since we usually have a separate thread for these
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NEW YORK (AP) — President Joe Biden begins an intense period of private preparations Friday at Camp David for what may be the most consequential presidential debate in decades.

The 81-year-old Democrat’s team is aware that he cannot afford an underwhelming performance when he faces Republican rival Donald Trump for 90 minutes on live television Thursday night. Biden’s team is expecting aggressive attacks on his physical and mental strength, his record on the economy and immigration and even his family.

Trump, 78 and ever confident, will stay on the campaign trail before going to his Florida estate next week for two days of private meetings as part of an informal prep process.

The former president’s allies are pushing him to stay focused on his governing plans, but they’re expecting him to be tested by pointed questions about his unrelenting focus on election fraud, his role in the erosion of abortion rights and his unprecedented legal baggage.

Thursday’s debate on CNN will be full of firsts, with the potential to reshape the presidential race. Never before in the modern era have two presumptive nominees met on the debate stage so early in the general election season. Never before have two White House contenders faced off at such advanced ages, with widespread questions about their readiness.

And never before has a general election debate participant been saddled with a felony conviction. The debate-stage meeting comes just two weeks before Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on 34 felony counts in his New York hush money trial.

“You can argue this will be the most important debate, at least in my lifetime,” said Democratic strategist Jim Messina, 54, who managed former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign.

PRESSURE ON BIDEN


The ground rules for Thursday’s debate, the first of two scheduled meetings, are unusual.

The candidates agreed to meet at a CNN studio in Atlanta with no audience. Each candidate’s microphone will be muted, except when it’s his turn to speak. No props or prewritten notes will be allowed onstage. The candidates will be given only a pen, a pad of paper and a bottle of water.

There will be no opening statements. A coin flip determined that Biden would stand at the podium to the viewer’s right, while Trump would deliver the final closing statement.


The next debate won’t be until September. Any stumbles Thursday will be hard to erase or replace quickly.………..

How Biden and Trump are taking very different approaches to preparing for next week's debate

President Joe Biden is beginning an intense period of private debate preparations at Camp David. His trip comes as officials in both parties scramble to set expectations for what may be the most consequential presidential debate in decades.

apnews.com

 

[bird]

Sure, but realize a lot of people get much of their experience in the private sector before going into public service. You have to gain that experience somewhere. And Presidents have had all kinds of backgrounds before going into politics. Cuban is obviously smart enough to figure all that out.

By the way, I'm not saying he should run, and he's already said he won't run because of his kids' ages. He said he wants them all out of HS ar least before running, which would be like 2032. By that time a lot will have changed anyway.

Experience in the private sector does not arbitrarily apply. You gain private sector experience which is what it is. It simply is not the same.

I prefer politicians who understand compromise, who understand that forging relationships and partnerships especially with those who would potentially oppose you.

The politics of this country has been gutted by a succession of people in government, media and consulting who viewed government as a cash cow to be carved up as opposed to the method by which society organizes and perpetuates itself.

 

[DaveXA]

Complex vs. Complicated Systems

An explanation of the key distinction between complex (organic) systems, and complicated (mechanical) systems. This distinction is critical.

www.beyondintractability.org

The link gives some definition between complicated and complex.

I understand the difference. Thanks tho.

 

[SamAndreas]

Naw, very rich billionaire men financing their own campaign, or not, and clergy of any religion are beyond the pale as far as I'm concerned.

Such a person is not as likely to ignore their self interests, or "their perceived God's interests," and will instead will defence the Constitution, being the President for all Americans.

It's a bad form thing, I wouldn't want to create a law about it.

As a voter I've never voted for clergy, or very wealthy men, that is my thrust, And I doubt that I ever will vote for one. It might come up and be a special case, but in this instance I wouldn't want Cuban for President.

As the old saw goes, behind every great fortune there's likely to be a hidden grand larceny.

Maybe Hillel the Elder said that. (Hillel is sort of the Jewish Jesus, they lived during approximately the same era.)

 

[DaveXA]

Experience in the private sector does not arbitrarily apply. You gain private sector experience which is what it is. It simply is not the same.

I didn't say it arbitrarily appiles. I'm saying there is more than enough overlap that the transition isn't terribly difficult if you're competent.

Fwiw, I worked most of my life in the private sector before starting to work in my current capacity with the DOD. The transition was a challenge because the culture is much different, but the subject matter was pretty easy to pick up for the most part.

 

[bird]

I understand the difference. Thanks tho.

Wasn’t being a smart azz. I actually discovered that fairly recently. While I knew there was a difference it took seeing it in words as opposed to a thesaurus claiming that they were the same. It was enlightening to me.

 

[bird]

I didn't say it arbitrarily appiles. I'm saying there is more than enough overlap that the transition isn't terribly difficult if you're competent.

Fwiw, I worked most of my life in the private sector before starting to work in my current capacity with the DOD. The transition was a challenge because the culture is much different, but the subject matter was pretty easy to pick up for the most part.

I would say working within the government is not the same as the office of president. In a broadly decentralized operation which is operated by a highly centralized operation there are plenty of opportunities for situations such as the one you mentioned for yourself. Shifting upwards into the highly centralized radically changes the inputs as well as the ability to analyze and respond to inputs. We have sen this with the uproar in Gaza as relates to Biden as though Biden can actually stop the Israeli government’s actions. The inputs combined with attempting to forecast the outcomes is basically impossible to deal with.

The office of the presidency has become impossible to deal with.

1) Due to complexity in our own and other nation-state and non-state actors actions cannot be predicted with accuracy
2) Opposing inputs within the US due to radicalized groups cause paralysis and dramatically increase the potential for violence
3) A socio-political economy which is at odds with the human brain’s emotional development has created a massive mental health crisis which is both hidden and exposed
4) The end result which is seen here and elsewhere is a rise of and yearning for authoritarian charlatans

 

[DaveXA]

I would say working within the government is not the same as the office of president. In a broadly decentralized operation which is operated by a highly centralized operation there are plenty of opportunities for situations such as the one you mentioned for yourself. Shifting upwards into the highly centralized radically changes the inputs as well as the ability to analyze and respond to inputs. We have sen this with the uproar in Gaza as relates to Biden as though Biden can actually stop the Israeli government’s actions. The inputs combined with attempting to forecast the outcomes is basically impossible to deal with.

The office of the presidency has become impossible to deal with.

1) Due to complexity in our own and other nation-state and non-state actors actions cannot be predicted with accuracy
2) Opposing inputs within the US due to radicalized groups cause paralysis and dramatically increase the potential for violence
3) A socio-political economy which is at odds with the human brain’s emotional development has created a massive mental health crisis which is both hidden and exposed
4) The end result which is seen here and elsewhere is a rise of and yearning for authoritarian charlatans

Those are all well taken points. There's a small pool of people who would qualify based on you list, but worldview matters as much as having the core competencies necessary to perform adequately in the office of the President. You have to have both the worldview and the competencies, but having both and having the charisma needed to lead a Presidential campaign is a rare bird.

 

[RebSaint]

Another RW "both sides" guy admitting he was in the bag for Trump all along? Check.
Whining about other posters being mean to him so he leaves? Check.
Actually does not leave and whines more? Check.

Pathetic and predictable.

 

[Bayouboy]

The debate was an abject disaster for Joe Biden. While I understand it was one 90 minute debate, I think it sealed Biden's fate. There's no coming back from that. I want Trump sent to Siberia more than anyone in the country, but if it's Trump vs. Biden in November, Trump will win.

I wonder how the leaders in the Democratic Party allowed Biden to debate in the first place. They had to know there was some percentage chance that Joe would "wet the bed". You simply can't take the chance. He should've refused to debate. That would be eons better than destroying your chances at winning by what happened on Thursday. It was a watershed moment in time. No way he recovers. No way.

 

[LA - L.A.]

I don't think Biden has dementia, but I also don't think he'll survive the job until he is 86.

That's true for Biden and it's true for every president. Any elected president could die or be disabled before their term is up. That's why the presidential line of succession has been in the Constitution since the beginning.

So which is the better option:

• Elect Biden, he has to step down during his term and Harris succeeds him as president

OR​

• Elect Trump.

We can't control how other people are going to vote. Personally, I don't care if I know everyone else in the country is going to vote for Trump, I'm still voting for Biden if he's on the ballot. What you have complete control over is how you vote and what you tell others. So please vote for whoever is the Democratic candidate and encourage everyone else you know to do so. Help them be able to vote if they need help with it. That's the most powerful things we can do to make sure Trump doesn't win.

If Biden stays in the race, ask the people you know, who think Biden might die or become incapacitated while in office because of his age, which is better for us Harris having to succeed Biden as president or Trump as president. Make sure that everyone you know, who's concerned Biden can't serve a full term, understands that's the choice that they have if Biden stays in the race.

If you know someone who would vote for Trump over Harris, then ask them if they'd rather take a chance on Biden not being able to serve is full term or on Trump not doing all the terrible things he's promised he'd do.

Biden is not running against perfection. Biden is running against Trump.

Staying in the race will cement his legacy very badly. I heard someone else say this, and I agree that If he were to bow out, he would be this generation's George Washington. No one would care about the last debate. He would be hailed for putting the country over himself, and ironically would make himself look much more positively in history.

Only if whoever replaces him wins. If his replacement loses, then it's much more likely that he will be vilified for running away and abandoning us when we needed him most. No one should ever make decisions based on what their legacy will or will not be. We have no control what so ever over our legacy, because our legacy is solely determined by society at large and we are a fickle crowd at best.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Most of us are just operating off of hearsay and gut feelings, but I do think that polling can be an important indicator to represent how much of the public perceives candidates (obviously).

In Post-Debate Poll, Voters Think Biden Is Too Old to Be President Yet Alternative Candidates Perform Similarly Against Trump

Only 51% of Democrats and 35% of all likely voters say that Joe Biden should remain as the Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential election.

www.dataforprogress.org

This is the most relevant data from that poll as to giving insight into how voters might vote if the election were right now:

The survey also asked voters about hypothetical head-to-heads between Trump and Biden, Harris, Whitmer, Newsom, Pritzker, Buttigieg, Shapiro, Klobuchar, and Booker.

In a two-way matchup between Biden and Trump, 45% of voters choose Biden and 48% of voters choose Trump. Compared to Data for Progress’ last head-to-head survey, Trump’s vote share across subgroups has remained relatively stable while “don’t know” rates have grown larger. Harris performs the same as Biden in a head-to-head matchup against Trump.

Among alternative candidates, no candidate performs significantly better than Biden against Trump in a head-to-head race, though more voters indicate they are “not sure” compared to the most well-known candidates.

Based on comparing that group's polling data to their previous polling data, since the debate:

• Biden didn't lose any significant ground in actual voting and the gap between he and Trump is still within the margin of error.
• Trump's share of "don't know" has grown larger
• Harris performs the same as Biden if she's head to head with Trump.
• Neither Whitmer, Newsom, Pritzker, Buttigieg, Shapiro, Klobuchar, or Booker performs significantly better than Biden if they are head to head with Trump

 

[LA - L.A.]

Steve is absolutely not DD. That you can be certain of. Their world views are somewhat similar, but posting style is much different.

And I've seen irl pics of both and they look nothing alike.

I leaned to thinking the people behind Steve and DadsDream were different, because there are noticeable differences in their styles. Now I know they are different people.

It was just that common oddity they share in sharing their personal itineraries that made them oddly similar.

 

[LA - L.A.]

I didn't understand that at all. What or who is a "dadsdream."

Another poster in the past. DaveXA knows they are not the same person. It wouldn't be a big deal if they were.

My dad's fondest dream would be to still to be alive, he died many years ago at 75. My mom is still alive, she will be 90 in August. She's the elder of two big extended family clans. This year she's called for there to be a joint clan reunion. That's a big deal.

We're preparing for there to be about 150 guests who will come and camp out at our place for two to three days. Almost every one of them will be people who are over 65.

Previous examples of your sense of humor has me wondering if you're poking fun at people who share non sequitur personal information.

Either way, enjoy the clan reunion.

 

[LA - L.A.]

I just read that the Heritage Foundation is readying legal challenges in swing states if the democrats try to run anyone other than Biden at the top of the ticket. They will try to appeal to SCOTUS. I don’t trust this SCOTUS to decide anything fairly at this point. Heritage will ask the court to basically throw the election to Trump.

I think that's part of their strategy to win. Speaking how I think they think. First, panic the herd into a stampede forcing Biden off the ticket. Second, challenge the replacement being on the ballot in every state we're worried about. Third, challenge the replacement in federal courts over using any of the campaign funds already raised, we don't have to win we just need to tie up their funds for a few months.

I don't think they are doing this to keep Biden from being replaced, I think they are doing this in the hopes that Biden is replaced. It also indicates to me that they are worried about losing in the swing states, even if Harris is the replacement. I don't think they do this if they're feeling confident they'll win the swing states.

We found out after the fact, that the reason Trump turned the "fixed election" propaganda up to 11 in 2020 is because his campaign's internal polling and his campaign people told him it looked like he was going to lose the election. They told him that to get him to change his extreme rhetoric, instead he started yelling about a fixed election and got is cronies in government to start yelling the same thing.

 

[Heathen]

Based on comparing that group's polling data to their previous polling data, since the debate:

• Biden didn't lose any significant ground in actual voting and the gap between he and Trump is still within the margin of error.
• Trump's share of "don't know" has grown larger
• Harris performs the same as Biden if she's head to head with Trump.
• Neither Whitmer, Newsom, Pritzker, Buttigieg, Shapiro, Klobuchar, or Booker performs significantly better than Biden if they are head to head with Trump

It’s unnerving that these polls also indicate voters at least in this sample are more concerned about Biden’s age than Trump’s criminal cases. That says a lot about America.

I don’t know if there’s much good Biden can do at this point to prove to voters that he’s still “all there” and can last 4 more years. Those who were going to vote for him before probably will still do so in November. It’s those on the fence, particularly Independents where this poll shows he favors much worse than Trump, that are the concerns.

Not sure what you do if you’re the Biden administration right now.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Spot on, well said and good on her for saying it. I'm sure she's going to be targeted with a lot of hate for saying it.

I'd obviously be one of those white males who tend to publicly freak out when things don't go just so, if it weren't for the fact that I'm huffing so much "copium."

 

[LA - L.A.]

It’s unnerving that these polls also indicate voters at least in this sample are more concerned about Biden’s age than Trump’s criminal cases. That says a lot about America.

I don’t know if there’s much good Biden can do at this point to prove to voters that he’s still “all there” and can last 4 more years. Those who were going to vote for him before probably will still do so in November. It’s those on the fence, particularly Independents where this poll shows he favors much worse than Trump, that are the concerns.

Not sure what you do if you’re the Biden administration right now.

Biden favors much worse only in perception questions. When it gets down to which of them are you voting for, the gap is the same polls were showing before the debate.

The good news is all polls for quite some time overestimate votes Republicans are likely to get and underestimate votes Democrats are likely to get. They've also overestimated votes for the more conservative candidates and underestimated votes for the more progressive candidates in same party races.

There's a consistent bias in the polls that make them poor predictors of election results and the pollsters haven't been able to figure out what the problem is that they have to correct for.

 

[LA - L.A.]

I’m glad to see somebody with a sizable audience talking about this. Especially the part about Harris.

It's amazing how many people assume that Harris should and would just take a back seat for the good of the country. First and foremost, it's disrespectfully dismissive of her. Second, they have that opinion just off of feelings and not one iota of data to support that her taking a back seat would be what's actually best for the country. If Harris is championing Biden to remain on the ticket, then she's done her homework and all the data is telling her that's what's best for the country.

The Heritage Foundation is gearing up in swing states to challenge Harris being on the ballot if she replaces Biden. They're just as scared of Harris winning as they are of Biden.

The comfortable majority of American voters don't want Biden to be president, but they're still going to get out and vote for him, because they despise and are terrified of Trump winning again. Trump and his cult know that. That's why they are trying to panic Democrats into sabotaging themselves, or into committing political suicide as some say.

Don't let what those punk arse cult of Trump thugs and bullies scare you into shooting your own foot. Shoot their punk arses instead, metaphorically speaking of course.