Election Electoral College predictions (4 Viewers)

[Richard]

To get our minds off of the virus, debates and campaign theatrics for a moment, I thought it might be an interesting exercise to post our predictions of the final Electoral College margin. Of course, any prediction made would be a moment-in-time snapshot of what we think will happen given the current circumstances. Any number of factors could influence the vote over the final month of the campaign.

There are sites that can help you arrive at your prediction. Real Clear Politics and 538 have polling data that can help you come up with a number. I use RCP mostly because they have a good interactive national map that's easy to use and they don't include polls conducted by companies like SurveyMonkey. They do, however include partisan polling, like Trafalgar and Change Research.

My prediction started with looking at a best case scenario for a Trump reelection. I started by putting all of the states shown to lean in one direction in that camp. RCP shows states like Indiana and Missouri leaning Trump and Oregon and Virginia leaning Biden when those states and others like them are certainly going to end up in those columns. That leaves 11 "battleground" states (and two one-vote congressional districts) that theoretically could go either way and gives a picture of a 226-125 Biden lead before assigning a winner in those states. In looking at Trump's best case scenario, I gave him every state in which he is marginally ahead and those he is behind by less less than five points, as well as the two congressional districts. That would provide Biden with a slim 278-260 win. To come out with a better scenario for Trump, you would need to assign one or more of Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or New Hampshire to Trump and he is trailing in all of those states by more than five points.

However, I don't believe that Trump will achieve his best case numbers and Biden could win several more states, like Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. I still think Trump will likely keep Texas, Iowa and Georgia, so my prediction as of today is 353-185 in favor of Biden.

If you choose to participate in this exercise, you are welcome to give different predictions over the course of the next month. I intend to post a final prediction on Nov. 2/3 and may even post a weekly prediction, depending on the level of participation.

 

[MT15]

Didn’t I see an announcement that there wouldn’t be a Durham report until after the election?

IIRC, there was a lot of pressure from Barr to issue a preliminary report, which led to one of Durham’s most loyal task force members to resign in protest. Some time later, I remember seeing that there would be no early report issued.

I sure hope I didn’t make that all up or dream it, though.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

Didn’t I see an announcement that there wouldn’t be a Durham report until after the election?

IIRC, there was a lot of pressure from Barr to issue a preliminary report, which led to one of Durham’s most loyal task force members to resign in protest. Some time later, I remember seeing that there would be no early report issued.

I sure hope I didn’t make that all up or dream it, though.

The last I heard was in mid-September he was still refusing to say it wouldn't be released before the election. He just says politics won't dictate his decision (yeah, right).

 

[MT15]

I think this is what I remembered seeing. Who knows?

Bartiromo: Durham Report Will Not Be Released Before Election

FOX News Channel host Maria Bartiromo said that her sources are now saying that they no longer expect U.S. Attorney John Durham to release a report on possible wrongdoing in the intelligence community during the 2016 election before the 2020 election.

www.realclearpolitics.com

 

[coldseat]

I feel like this isn't being talked about enough. It's kind of startling.

Looks like the most dramatic shift of any demographic from the last election.

Analysis: How Trump’s losing among seniors at a historic rate | CNN Politics

Former Vice President Joe Biden has jumped out to an 11-point lead over President Donald Trump in CNN’s poll of polls. While Biden is doing better with pretty much all groups compared with 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, one group jumps out: seniors.

www.cnn.com

 

[bdb13]

The latest Rasmussen national poll has Biden up +12, 52% to 40%... That from a pollster that leans Republican. It would appear that Trump's Covid-19 diagnosis on the heels of the debate he was perceived to lose is really dragging him down now.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

The latest Rasmussen national poll has Biden up +12, 52% to 40%... That from a pollster that leans Republican. It would appear that Trump's Covid-19 diagnosis on the heels of the debate he was perceived to lose is really dragging him down now.

They also have him at -10 Approve/Disapprove. Rasmussen often has him at or just about 50% there (the only poll that ever does). For him to be down that much in Rasmussen is shocking.

 

[bdb13]

Wow, great for Biden:

 

[Saint by the Bay]

I'm having trouble believing that Florida number. I'll have to see some more polling over the next few days. At this point, it feels like an outlier.

The other numbers are wide but in the ballpark.

 

[bdb13]

I'm having trouble believing that Florida number. I'll have to see some more polling over the next few days. At this point, it feels like an outlier.

The other numbers are wide but in the ballpark.

Yeah I don't think that the Florida race is actually that wide either.. but there have been a few polls there recently in the +4-6 point range for Biden.. so if nothing else it helps to affirm that Biden probably leads Florida by at least a modest amount.. combine that with the numbers showing the Democrats have a 2:1 early voting [edit: meant to say mail in voting] edge in the state and I feel fairly optimistic about it.

 

[coldseat]

I'm having trouble believing that Florida number. I'll have to see some more polling over the next few days. At this point, it feels like an outlier.

The other numbers are wide but in the ballpark.

When you consider what the article I posted above reports, it seems to make more sense. Especially with the percentage of seniors that make up the Flordia population (32.5%). But I know that given what happened in 2016, most of us won't believe it until we see it.

I feel like this isn't being talked about enough. It's kind of startling.

Looks like the most dramatic shift of any demographic from the last election.

Analysis: How Trump’s losing among seniors at a historic rate | CNN Politics

Former Vice President Joe Biden has jumped out to an 11-point lead over President Donald Trump in CNN’s poll of polls. While Biden is doing better with pretty much all groups compared with 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, one group jumps out: seniors.

www.cnn.com

 

[efil4]

I feel like this isn't being talked about enough. It's kind of startling.

Looks like the most dramatic shift of any demographic from the last election.

Analysis: How Trump’s losing among seniors at a historic rate | CNN Politics

Former Vice President Joe Biden has jumped out to an 11-point lead over President Donald Trump in CNN’s poll of polls. While Biden is doing better with pretty much all groups compared with 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, one group jumps out: seniors.

www.cnn.com

HAHA so much for his attempt at a $200 scrip card. LOL.

Dopey fool.

 

[efil4]

Yeah I don't think that the Florida race is actually that wide either.. but there have been a few polls there recently in the +4-6 point range for Biden.. so if nothing else it helps to affirm that Biden probably leads Florida by at least a modest amount.. combine that with the numbers showing the Democrats have a 2:1 early voting [edit: meant to say mail in voting] edge in the state and I feel fairly optimistic about it.

I know this freaks yall out, but im tellin yall...this race wont be nearly as close as some think.

Trump and his administration, throughout the 4 years, has invigorated voters to realize just how important it is to vote. Even if your selected candidate is polling well, go vote anyway.

I suspect many in 2016 figured there was no way Trump could pull off a win, and they got stung. 4 years later, they remember how bad it stung ( shoot, we get daily reminders ).

To paraphrase Yamamoto- " Trump has awoken a sleeping giant and filled them with great resolve" .

 

[Saint by the Bay]

When you consider what the article I posted above reports, it seems to make more sense. Especially with the percentage of seniors that make up the Flordia population (32.5%). But I know that given what happened in 2016, most of us won't believe it until we see it.

The only issue I have is that it's significantly different than other polls. I believe he's up, but most polls have him somewhere between 4-6 pts up. When I see a slew of them there and 1 that is 11 I have to control my excitement about the 11.

If you look at the other polls from Florida released today and yesterday you have:

IPSOS +4
Cherry +5
Change research +4
Univ. North Florida +4
Sienna College +5

That makes the +11 a significant outlier, but it may be predictive of what we will see over the next week. I sure hope so because there is NO path to a Trump win if Biden wins Florida by 11 pts.

 

[Taurus]

I know this freaks yall out, but im tellin yall...this race wont be nearly as close as some think.

Trump and his administration, throughout the 4 years, has invigorated voters to realize just how important it is to vote. Even if your selected candidate is polling well, go vote anyway.

I suspect many in 2016 figured there was no way Trump could pull off a win, and they got stung. 4 years later, they remember how bad it stung ( shoot, we get daily reminders ).

To paraphrase Yamamoto- " Trump has awoken a sleeping giant and filled them with great resolve" .

Man, I hope you're right.

With any other President in history, I'd be super confident of the outcome with these kinds of poll numbers.

Thing is, every other President wanted to be President. Sure, they might wink at a little voter suppression here or there, but they all sought the moral authority to say "I won fair and square." They all wanted to hold power as an American.

Trump doesn't want to be President, he wants to be a king. Forget just winking at voter suppression, he's openly calling for it. He's invited other nations to meddle, so long as they swing the outcome his way. He's deliberately tried to cripple the Post Office solely so it can't deliver ballots on time. He's already been impeached FFS for trying to rig the election.

I get this yuge Stalinesque "It's not the votes that count, it's who counts the votes" vibe this year.

 

[V Chip]

I think it’s just the pessimist in me. I’ve completely lost faith that the good guys win and the bad guys lose. It’s like Game of Thrones. Sure, it looks like the North has everything in the bag but those sneaky Lannisters always have a trick up their sleeve. I don’t think Trump is going to legitimately win, but I do think the wheels of power are so corrupt at this point that he will win.

The fact that there are still people who want to vote for Trump after that debacle at the first debate and the last 3½ years is proof that your theory is spot on.

 

[LA - L.A.]

I'm still going with my guess from here https://madaboutpolitics.com/threads/how-i-think-the-2020-presdential-election-will-turnout.75131/post-109347:

This is approximately how I expect the election to turn out. I'm basing it on the observation that the primary motivation for voting has become fear and anger.

In each state, I made my guess as to which party and candidate would have the greatest amount of fear and anger directed at them and gave that party and candidate a loss in that state. My guesses are based on a lot of things that have already happened, are trending to happen, and few things that I expect to happen between now and election day. I expect very narrow margins of victories in the vast majority of states, so I don't expect the popular vote to be as lopsided as the electoral college totals indicate.

 

[JimEverett]

When you consider what the article I posted above reports, it seems to make more sense. Especially with the percentage of seniors that make up the Flordia population (32.5%). But I know that given what happened in 2016, most of us won't believe it until we see it.

Back when some REpublicans were hinting (or outright saying) that old people would or should sacrifice for the young during the coronavirus probably turned some seniors off. Definitely not the message you want getting around in Florida.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Wonder if we'll see this estimate increase or will it level back to Trump some...

Biden crosses 270 threshold in CNN’s Electoral College outlook for first time | CNN Politics

Joe Biden is surging in the battle for the White House with less than four weeks to go until Election Day.

www.cnn.com