Election Electoral College predictions (8 Viewers)

[Richard]

To get our minds off of the virus, debates and campaign theatrics for a moment, I thought it might be an interesting exercise to post our predictions of the final Electoral College margin. Of course, any prediction made would be a moment-in-time snapshot of what we think will happen given the current circumstances. Any number of factors could influence the vote over the final month of the campaign.

There are sites that can help you arrive at your prediction. Real Clear Politics and 538 have polling data that can help you come up with a number. I use RCP mostly because they have a good interactive national map that's easy to use and they don't include polls conducted by companies like SurveyMonkey. They do, however include partisan polling, like Trafalgar and Change Research.

My prediction started with looking at a best case scenario for a Trump reelection. I started by putting all of the states shown to lean in one direction in that camp. RCP shows states like Indiana and Missouri leaning Trump and Oregon and Virginia leaning Biden when those states and others like them are certainly going to end up in those columns. That leaves 11 "battleground" states (and two one-vote congressional districts) that theoretically could go either way and gives a picture of a 226-125 Biden lead before assigning a winner in those states. In looking at Trump's best case scenario, I gave him every state in which he is marginally ahead and those he is behind by less less than five points, as well as the two congressional districts. That would provide Biden with a slim 278-260 win. To come out with a better scenario for Trump, you would need to assign one or more of Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or New Hampshire to Trump and he is trailing in all of those states by more than five points.

However, I don't believe that Trump will achieve his best case numbers and Biden could win several more states, like Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. I still think Trump will likely keep Texas, Iowa and Georgia, so my prediction as of today is 353-185 in favor of Biden.

If you choose to participate in this exercise, you are welcome to give different predictions over the course of the next month. I intend to post a final prediction on Nov. 2/3 and may even post a weekly prediction, depending on the level of participation.

 

[TaylorB]

Makes me wonder how much cash the campaign actually has. While doing heavy spending in PA, where Biden is up big, CNN just reported Trump isn't spending anything in Ohio, where Trump and Biden are statistically tied.

I've read some major media reporting in the last 24 hours that the Trump campaign is significantly strapped for cash, but nothing specific on the numbers. I think that influenced the decision to go to the Bedminster fundraiser despite Hope Hicks testing positive, for example, but I'd feel more confident in that statement if the reporting were more specific about how much cash they actually have on hand. There's no doubt they're getting crushed by Biden in fundraising of late, which just warms my little heart.

 

[CoolBrees]

CNN has Biden up 16 points with 57%
Politico has him up 12 in Pennsylvania with 53%

RCP aggregate is up to 9.2 points and nearly 52%

Hillary never had leads like that and she never cracked 48% aggregate. With 10% undecideds. There are about 3-4% undecideds right now.

You can’t suppress or intimidate your way to victory with those numbers.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

 

[wardorican]

There’s two ways to look at it. The first is that you take the two or three points Biden seems to have gained from the debate, bank it and count your blessings. Don’t put that at risk by getting on stage with Trump again.

The other is that you speculate Trump can’t change course and he will hurt himself even more the second and third time. I tend to think he won’t lose anymore, even if he performs equally bad. Debating him again can only help him, it can’t hurt him anymore.

I think Biden will debate him. He’s an institutionalist who probably sees Presidential Debates as part of the process. That doesn’t mean it’s the smart or winning decision though.

I think he's dying to rip him for the mask stuff. It's a simple, clear example of brazen behavior that puts people at risk. Sure, he was fine (so far), because he can get air lifted to the presidential suite at a hospital, and then go back to the white house, that has a medical staff as well.

And so far, no one has died from that ACB event. But we don't get up to date info on every attendee.

 

[wardorican]

Then I expect Trump to be gearing up to make a ferverent legal challenge to mail in ballots in PA and FL.

Florida has had mail in ballots for years. The process, as far as I know, didn't change. You had to request it via the usual processes. I usually do the request online. Not sure what challenge they can make, other than dealing with ballots not properly signed/dated.

 

[JimEverett]

Florida has had mail in ballots for years. The process, as far as I know, didn't change. You had to request it via the usual processes. I usually do the request online. Not sure what challenge they can make, other than dealing with ballots not properly signed/dated.

Where has the process changed - if anywhere?
Trump was talking about "unsolicited" ballots being the problem. What states allow unsolicited ballots to be sent for the 2020 election but not in previous elections?

 

[CoolBrees]

That the thing. Very few - if any - of the battlegrounds changed the way they vote.

I know how easy it is to think he is going to pull off some shenanigans but right now he is in HUGE trouble. Look at the no toss up map for god sakes.

Biden is over 50% in several battlegrounds. In fact, the only battleground he is leading is Texas. Let me repeat that for those in the back - Texas is considered a battleground and he is only leading by 3 points! South Carolina is one more poll away from being added. The last had him up 1 point. He won by 14!

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - 2020 Electoral College Map

2020 Electoral College Map

www.realclearpolitics.com

 

[Saint by the Bay]

Where has the process changed - if anywhere?
Trump was talking about "unsolicited" ballots being the problem. What states allow unsolicited ballots to be sent for the 2020 election but not in previous elections?

From my understanding, the states that don't normally do it and are because of COVID are California, Nevada, New Jersey, Vermont and Washington, D.C. There are some other states that do it every year like Colorado and Utah.

 

[wardorican]

Where has the process changed - if anywhere?
Trump was talking about "unsolicited" ballots being the problem. What states allow unsolicited ballots to be sent for the 2020 election but not in previous elections?

I was replying to a specific point that Trump would challenge mail in votes from FL and PA. I dont think there will be grounds for that.

To your question... see this article.

Fact check: Clarifying Trump’s 80 million ‘unsolicited’ ballots claim

With 54 days until the Nov. 3 presidential election, President Donald Trump said on Twitter ( https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1304040627332689920 ) and Facebook ( https://www.facebook.com/DonaldTrump/posts/10165423375870725 ) on Thursday that 80 million mail-in...

www.reuters.com

 

[EmBeeFiveOhFour]

Early voting this morning in Ohio:



The mask wearing in line seems not great for President Covid Trump.

 

[Complex Kid]

Early voting this morning in Ohio:



The mask wearing in line seems not great for President Covid Trump.

 

[B4YOU]

From my understanding, the states that don't normally do it and are because of COVID are California, Nevada, New Jersey, Vermont and Washington, D.C. There are some other states that do it every year like Colorado and Utah.

I can confirm DC has sent mailed ballots to all registered voters. There are 53 drop boxes with camera monitoring in an area of 61 sq miles. This is 1 box per 13,200 residents and 1 per 1.15 sq miles. Now compare this to Harris County Texas. The Governor is requiring only 1 per county and forcing them to remove the 11 other boxes they publicly advertised. Harris County has a population of 4.7M over 1700 sq miles with 1 box. This is how you suppress turnout.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

I can confirm DC has sent mailed ballots to all registered voters. There are 53 drop boxes with camera monitoring in an area of 61 sq miles. This is 1 box per 13,200 residents and 1 per 1.15 sq miles. Now compare this to Harris County Texas. The Governor is requiring only 1 per county and forcing them to remove the 11 other boxes they publicly advertised. Harris County has a population of 4.7M over 1700 sq miles with 1 box. This is how you suppress turnout.

A lawsuit was filed here in Harris County today over this. I can't imagine this blatant voter suppression effort surviving a court challenge.

 

[EmBeeFiveOhFour]

A lawsuit was filed here in Harris County today over this. I can't imagine this blatant voter suppression effort surviving a court challenge.

If it's a state court suit, all members of the Texas Supreme Court are partisan Republicans.

If it's a federal court suit, you underestimate the U.S. Fifth Circuit (the most conservative appellate court in America) and the eight person Supreme Court.

Voter suppression is the only tool the GOP has left to hold on to power.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

If it's a state court suit, all members of the Texas Supreme Court are partisan Republicans.

If it's a federal court suit, you underestimate the U.S. Fifth Circuit (the most conservative appellate court in America) and the eight person Supreme Court.

Voter suppression is the only tool the GOP has left to hold on to power.

Yeah, I'm almost certainly giving the system more credit than it currently deserves.

 

[JimEverett]

I can confirm DC has sent mailed ballots to all registered voters. There are 53 drop boxes with camera monitoring in an area of 61 sq miles. This is 1 box per 13,200 residents and 1 per 1.15 sq miles. Now compare this to Harris County Texas. The Governor is requiring only 1 per county and forcing them to remove the 11 other boxes they publicly advertised. Harris County has a population of 4.7M over 1700 sq miles with 1 box. This is how you suppress turnout.

How do ballot drop boxes work - or more specifically - are they the only method voters have to mail-in ballots?

 

[brandon]

How do ballot drop boxes work - or more specifically - are they the only method voters have to mail-in ballots?

Is it your suggestion that if we only suppress a few means of voting, it's not really voter suppresion?

I mean, if we say that all voting has to occur at one polling place for the entire county (conveniently located in the white suburb 45 miles from the city center) between the hours of 10am-2pm, is that voter suppression? I mean, everyone had the chance to vote, right?

The goal should be to provide the opportunity for the most people to conveniently exercise their right to vote so we are more likely to get an accurate will of the people.

 

[CoolBrees]

So if they suppress the vote in Texas, and Trump wins Texas then..... what?

He is going to win Texas no matter what they do. None of the battleground have changed except for MAYBE Nevada but he is down bigly in Nevada. The count won’t matter, and the EV might not matter either. Fact is, unless he makes major gains in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in the next three weeks he is going to lose and no amount of suppression, or rigged election talk is going to change that.

And the counting ballots thing that keeps getting brought up.... it’s not like they take all 110 million votes and pile them on the floor and count them. This is the same system we have had for years. Each district will count their votes just like always. Mail in or in person, doesn’t change that. Hell he has scared people so much that their vote won’t count that they are lining up in droves in Ohio to vote today.

 

[MT15]

I was surprised to see a line out of the building and along the sidewalk in my town today, the first day for early voting.

And, of course, voting should be made as easy and convenient as possible so that more people can exercise their right to vote. This seems to be something that Republicans do not believe.