Election Electoral College predictions (8 Viewers)

[Richard]

To get our minds off of the virus, debates and campaign theatrics for a moment, I thought it might be an interesting exercise to post our predictions of the final Electoral College margin. Of course, any prediction made would be a moment-in-time snapshot of what we think will happen given the current circumstances. Any number of factors could influence the vote over the final month of the campaign.

There are sites that can help you arrive at your prediction. Real Clear Politics and 538 have polling data that can help you come up with a number. I use RCP mostly because they have a good interactive national map that's easy to use and they don't include polls conducted by companies like SurveyMonkey. They do, however include partisan polling, like Trafalgar and Change Research.

My prediction started with looking at a best case scenario for a Trump reelection. I started by putting all of the states shown to lean in one direction in that camp. RCP shows states like Indiana and Missouri leaning Trump and Oregon and Virginia leaning Biden when those states and others like them are certainly going to end up in those columns. That leaves 11 "battleground" states (and two one-vote congressional districts) that theoretically could go either way and gives a picture of a 226-125 Biden lead before assigning a winner in those states. In looking at Trump's best case scenario, I gave him every state in which he is marginally ahead and those he is behind by less less than five points, as well as the two congressional districts. That would provide Biden with a slim 278-260 win. To come out with a better scenario for Trump, you would need to assign one or more of Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or New Hampshire to Trump and he is trailing in all of those states by more than five points.

However, I don't believe that Trump will achieve his best case numbers and Biden could win several more states, like Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. I still think Trump will likely keep Texas, Iowa and Georgia, so my prediction as of today is 353-185 in favor of Biden.

If you choose to participate in this exercise, you are welcome to give different predictions over the course of the next month. I intend to post a final prediction on Nov. 2/3 and may even post a weekly prediction, depending on the level of participation.

 

[JimEverett]

Is it your suggestion that if we only suppress a few means of voting, it's not really voter suppresion?

I mean, if we say that all voting has to occur at one polling place for the entire county (conveniently located in the white suburb 45 miles from the city center) between the hours of 10am-2pm, is that voter suppression? I mean, everyone had the chance to vote, right?

The goal should be to provide the opportunity for the most people to conveniently exercise their right to vote so we are more likely to get an accurate will of the people.

That is a hefty conclusion to draw from a simple question.

 

[brandon]

That is a hefty conclusion to draw from a simple question.

Sustained.

Please continue your line of questioning, counselor.

 

[B4YOU]

How do ballot drop boxes work - or more specifically - are they the only method voters have to mail-in ballots?

Drop boxes give the public the option to bypass mail service. The risk with mail is that votes can get lost, mail service can be slow, votes may not get post marked in time. The drop box means you can drop a vote day before/of and know that vote will still count. Drop boxes are typically more secure due to video or in person surveillance than putting a ballot in your personal mailbox or a USP box. For a last minute voter or a voter not trusting US mail, this provides a option to avoid day of lines during a pandemic. By not providing these boxes proportionally based on either population or land size, some people are not being provided equal access to ballot boxes.

edit: found an article.

More States Are Using Ballot Drop Boxes. Why Are They So Controversial?

When we first unveiled our guide of how to vote in the 2020 election in every state, the most common question we received was, “What if I want to drop off my ma…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[DaveXA]

A lawsuit was filed here in Harris County today over this. I can't imagine this blatant voter suppression effort surviving a court challenge.

I agree...but the real question is will the courts? I'm not too optimistic.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

So if they suppress the vote in Texas, and Trump wins Texas then..... what?

The moves aren't about the Presidential race. They know they have that sewed up because the rural population of Texas is so huge that the cities being blue don't change it.

This and trying to eliminate straight-ticket voting is about the state and local elections. As the population of the city centers grows they are seeing a shift in the state legislators and especially judgeships. They HATE the Mexican woman elected as Harris County Judge. They call her Dora, for Dora the Explorer because, you know, Mexican. Anyway, the goal is if they can disenfranchise enough minorities in the big urban centers it can help prevent there from being Democrats in the state legislature, Mayor's Offices, and in the very important County Judge positions.

 

[JimEverett]

Drop boxes give the public the option to bypass mail service. The risk with mail is that votes can get lost, mail service can be slow, votes may not get post marked in time. The drop box means you can drop a vote day before/of and know that vote will still count. Drop boxes are typically more secure due to video or in person surveillance than putting a ballot in your personal mailbox or a USP box. For a last minute voter or a voter not trusting US mail, this provides a option to avoid day of lines during a pandemic. By not providing these boxes proportionally based on either population or land size, some people are not being provided equal access to ballot boxes.

edit: found an article.

More States Are Using Ballot Drop Boxes. Why Are They So Controversial?

When we first unveiled our guide of how to vote in the 2020 election in every state, the most common question we received was, “What if I want to drop off my ma…

fivethirtyeight.com

Thanks. That is what I figured, I just did not know - I had never heard of anything like that.

I can get not trusting USPS - in fact, it is a campaign issue -obviously.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Drop boxes give the public the option to bypass mail service. The risk with mail is that votes can get lost, mail service can be slow, votes may not get post marked in time. The drop box means you can drop a vote day before/of and know that vote will still count. Drop boxes are typically more secure due to video or in person surveillance than putting a ballot in your personal mailbox or a USP box. For a last minute voter or a voter not trusting US mail, this provides a option to avoid day of lines during a pandemic. By not providing these boxes proportionally based on either population or land size, some people are not being provided equal access to ballot boxes.

edit: found an article.

More States Are Using Ballot Drop Boxes. Why Are They So Controversial?

When we first unveiled our guide of how to vote in the 2020 election in every state, the most common question we received was, “What if I want to drop off my ma…

fivethirtyeight.com

I can get behind the notion that having numerous boxes spread out in various locations might stretch the resources to monitor them thin; however, there is no reason not to have numerous boxes in one location. It's pretty silly to see that long line of cars waiting to put a ballot in one box. If you can monitor one box at a given location you can monitor another half dozen in the same location.

On a poll-related issue, it's noticeable that Rasmussen -- who has had Trump as high as +4 or so approval rating within the last month -- is now at -9 today. Keep in mind Rasmussen is a notoriously partisan outfit and often gets into 'Twitter-fights' with other pollsters.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

Ball out of the park type speech by Biden just now at Gettysburg.

I believe the fact that Joe is out speaking and showing he isn't sleepy or senile is helping the polls as well. I think we are starting to see a slight shift of people actually wanting a Biden Presidency vs. only not wanting more of Trump. Not a ton mind you, I think this election is still a referendum on Trump, but I do think there is some pro-Biden movement. He's performed well the last few weeks, and it's reflected in the polls.

Plus the "OMG pedophile!" stupidity has faded away helping with his negatives.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

One other note...

On Oct. 6th of 2016 Hillary was leading Trump in aggregate polling 44 - 40 (roughly). Biden is at 51.4 to 42.7. Hillary was also trending in the wrong direction with the race tightening instead of widening at this point.

I think this is quickly getting out of reach for Trump, barring some major health collapse by Biden. I'm not sure there's any practical thing that can get this within striking distance (4 pts) in less than a month.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Where has the process changed - if anywhere?
Trump was talking about "unsolicited" ballots being the problem. What states allow unsolicited ballots to be sent for the 2020 election but not in previous elections?

California has changed. They are mailing ballots to all registered voters, because of COVID-19. We'll be getting our ballots later this week or next week. I don't see why that's a problem.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Florida has had mail in ballots for years. The process, as far as I know, didn't change. You had to request it via the usual processes. I usually do the request online. Not sure what challenge they can make, other than dealing with ballots not properly signed/dated.

I don't think he'll be successful, but it won't stop him from trying.

 

[wardorican]

In florida, the website will update with the date/time that they received your ballot (you have to look yourself up), and also eventually when it was counted.

 

[LA - L.A.]

The moves aren't about the Presidential race. They know they have that sewed up because the rural population of Texas is so huge that the cities being blue don't change it.

This and trying to eliminate straight-ticket voting is about the state and local elections. As the population of the city centers grows they are seeing a shift in the state legislators and especially judgeships. They HATE the Mexican woman elected as Harris County Judge. They call her Dora, for Dora the Explorer because, you know, Mexican. Anyway, the goal is if they can disenfranchise enough minorities in the big urban centers it can help prevent there from being Democrats in the state legislature, Mayor's Offices, and in the very important County Judge positions.

Add to all of that the Census and the state redistricting that follows it.

 

[MT15]

Ball out of the park type speech by Biden just now at Gettysburg.

I believe the fact that Joe is out speaking and showing he isn't sleepy or senile is helping the polls as well. I think we are starting to see a slight shift of people actually wanting a Biden Presidency vs. only not wanting more of Trump. Not a ton mind you, I think this election is still a referendum on Trump, but I do think there is some pro-Biden movement. He's performed well the last few weeks, and it's reflected in the polls.

Plus the "OMG pedophile!" stupidity has faded away helping with his negatives.

 

[Booker]

Drop boxes give the public the option to bypass mail service. The risk with mail is that votes can get lost, mail service can be slow, votes may not get post marked in time. The drop box means you can drop a vote day before/of and know that vote will still count. Drop boxes are typically more secure due to video or in person surveillance than putting a ballot in your personal mailbox or a USP box. For a last minute voter or a voter not trusting US mail, this provides a option to avoid day of lines during a pandemic. By not providing these boxes proportionally based on either population or land size, some people are not being provided equal access to ballot boxes.

edit: found an article.

More States Are Using Ballot Drop Boxes. Why Are They So Controversial?

When we first unveiled our guide of how to vote in the 2020 election in every state, the most common question we received was, “What if I want to drop off my ma…

fivethirtyeight.com

This is what we usually do. Ballots come in the mail and can be mailed in, but there's a drop box in front of the county building (all video monitored) and it's sort of on my way to work, so I usually drop our ballots so we don't have to worry about them not getting them in the mail on time.

 

[Booker]

One other note...

On Oct. 6th of 2016 Hillary was leading Trump in aggregate polling 44 - 40 (roughly). Biden is at 51.4 to 42.7. Hillary was also trending in the wrong direction with the race tightening instead of widening at this point.

I think this is quickly getting out of reach for Trump, barring some major health collapse by Biden. I'm not sure there's any practical thing that can get this within striking distance (4 pts) in less than a month.

I hope you're right, but we are talking about the Democrats here. If there's a way to screw this up they'll do their level best to find it.

 

[Ayo]

People who stand in lines like that to vote are heroes.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

I hope you're right, but we are talking about the Democrats here. If there's a way to screw this up they'll do their level best to find it.

To me, the big question is what will happen when Durham releases a report in late October that has Biden's name in it? Not that he is guilty of anything, it just has his name in it. It's going to happen. We all know it will.

Now, will it have a Comey letter effect? I tend to think even if it does it won't have a 9 pt effect on the race, but you only need 3 or 4 to bring this thing back into stealing territory.