Election Electoral College predictions (2 Viewers)

[Richard]

To get our minds off of the virus, debates and campaign theatrics for a moment, I thought it might be an interesting exercise to post our predictions of the final Electoral College margin. Of course, any prediction made would be a moment-in-time snapshot of what we think will happen given the current circumstances. Any number of factors could influence the vote over the final month of the campaign.

There are sites that can help you arrive at your prediction. Real Clear Politics and 538 have polling data that can help you come up with a number. I use RCP mostly because they have a good interactive national map that's easy to use and they don't include polls conducted by companies like SurveyMonkey. They do, however include partisan polling, like Trafalgar and Change Research.

My prediction started with looking at a best case scenario for a Trump reelection. I started by putting all of the states shown to lean in one direction in that camp. RCP shows states like Indiana and Missouri leaning Trump and Oregon and Virginia leaning Biden when those states and others like them are certainly going to end up in those columns. That leaves 11 "battleground" states (and two one-vote congressional districts) that theoretically could go either way and gives a picture of a 226-125 Biden lead before assigning a winner in those states. In looking at Trump's best case scenario, I gave him every state in which he is marginally ahead and those he is behind by less less than five points, as well as the two congressional districts. That would provide Biden with a slim 278-260 win. To come out with a better scenario for Trump, you would need to assign one or more of Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or New Hampshire to Trump and he is trailing in all of those states by more than five points.

However, I don't believe that Trump will achieve his best case numbers and Biden could win several more states, like Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. I still think Trump will likely keep Texas, Iowa and Georgia, so my prediction as of today is 353-185 in favor of Biden.

If you choose to participate in this exercise, you are welcome to give different predictions over the course of the next month. I intend to post a final prediction on Nov. 2/3 and may even post a weekly prediction, depending on the level of participation.

 

[efil4]

I think a lot of the undecideds or no voters or third party voters from 2016 will be especially crucial

as for Quinnipiac, they have been bullish on Biden

I would not put a ton of hope/stock in those gaps

1.9mm NO PARTY in Florida alone have cast a ballot and i have to think 60% of NOPARTY voters in 2016 are Biden in 2020.

 

[bdb13]

I may be proven to be a fool and will be heading to a dark depression in a day or two... but I'm thinking/hoping we're going to see an absolutely staggering level of turnout against Trump and that independents are going to break hard against him and... that that will at the very least be enough to get him out of office.

 

[Optimus Prime]

as of this morning there were 93 million mail in/early votes cast which was 70% of the 2016 total votes cast

i wonder how many of those are new voters vs cannibalizing votes that would normally have been made on election day

I'm very curious what the turnout will be tomorrow

Anyone know what the mail in/absentee/ early vote percentage of 2016 was?

 

[efil4]

I may be proven to be a fool and will be heading to a dark depression in a day or two... but I'm thinking/hoping we're going to see an absolutely staggering level of turnout against Trump and that independents are going to break hard against him and... that that will at the very least be enough to get him out of office.

YAY got one!

cmon SBTB...do it. Put it all on red and lets spin the roulette wheel!!!!!!


Been saying this for last 2 months. This election is a referendum on Trump. Biden will win popular vote by close to 10mm.

Not sure on electoral votes but popular vote, it wont be close.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

YAY got one!

cmon SBTB...do it. Put it all on red and lets spin the roulette wheel!!!!!!


Been saying this for last 2 months. This election is a referendum on Trump. Biden will win popular vote by close to 10mm.

Not sure on electoral votes but popular vote, it wont be close.

I have champagne chilling, and I'm not joking about that. What more do you want from me?

 

[efil4]

as of this morning there were 93 million mail in/early votes cast which was 70% of the 2016 total votes cast

i wonder how many of those are new voters vs cannibalizing votes that would normally have been made on election day

I'm very curious what the turnout will be tomorrow

Anyone know what the mail in/absentee/ early vote percentage of 2016 was?

if you figure you get roughly 60-70mm voting in person on Tuesday, that will eclipsed 2016 by 20% or more.

Im not sure, but to have 93mm votes cast ALREADY, tells you EXACTLY how people feel about the 2020 election.

 

[bdb13]

YAY got one!

cmon SBTB...do it. Put it all on red and lets spin the roulette wheel!!!!!!


Been saying this for last 2 months. This election is a referendum on Trump. Biden will win popular vote by close to 10mm.

Not sure on electoral votes but popular vote, it wont be close.

I've been here for a week or two.. moments of doubt though man definitely moments of doubt..

 

[efil4]

I have champagne chilling, and I'm not joking about that. What more do you want from me?

LOLOL ok yeah i wont press. Just enjoy !!!

 

[efil4]

I've been here for a week or two.. moments of doubt though man definitely moments of doubt..

I have my bf moving to Ft Collins/Denver in a month or two - cant take La no more ( both born and raised here )

He is the yin to my yang. We speak daily and if i sound too jubilant, he is quick to bring me right back down by being the opposite. Just to bring me down a notch.

Aint working no more- he done gave up about a week ago.

But he still jokes that he will have an extra room in his home in liberal Co if i ever choose to leave lolol.

so i may be the ultimate fool - but i really am convinced a majority American electorate has simply had enough and that will be displayed thru Tues night.

 

[MT15]

Do not underestimate the fact that women have had it with Trump. Old women, young women, white college-educated suburban women, black women, Hispanic women, Asian women, Jewish women, heck even white no-college women are lower in his support than four years ago, I can’t remember where they ended up.

someone on Twitter said it isn’t a gender gap it’s a gender Grand Canyon.

 

[JimEverett]

To put 538's overall forecast in perspective, if Trump wins Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina -- which I could easily see happening -- then the race is basically 50/50. In that way, I think the 90/10 forecast is a bit of a paper tiger. (Of course, if Biden wins one of those then his odds go up to 99%).

I do not understand that.

If Trump wins those 3 states plus Arizona (where 538 says Trump has a 32% chance of winning) then Trump still has not won. The next state Trump is most likely to win is Pennsylvania and 538 places his chances of winning there at 14%.
How could a 14% chance of winning Penn (combined with a 32% chance of winning Arizona) somehow mean Trump has a 48% chance of winning the election?
Perhaps more to the point - those 3 states are all closer than Penn. But is the idea that if Trump wins all 3 then polling has been under for Trump and thus 538's model or whatever would bump Trump's chances of winning Penn by over 200%?

 

[JimEverett]

I may be proven to be a fool and will be heading to a dark depression in a day or two... but I'm thinking/hoping we're going to see an absolutely staggering level of turnout against Trump and that independents are going to break hard against him and... that that will at the very least be enough to get him out of office.

I think it is like that in some places. I don't know about nationally.

Just pure anedotally because there are not many polls done in Tennessee, but I would not be surprised if Trump goes from 60% of the vote in 2016 to more around 55-56% this time around.

 

[CoolBrees]

@JimEverett -

It means their statistical models, but more specifically their standard deviations were wrong. Silver is then extrapolating that if he was wrong there, he was wrong elsewhere, thus changing the whole map.

 

[JimEverett]

@JimEverett -

It means their statistical models, but more specifically their standard deviations were wrong. Silver is then extrapolating that if he was wrong there, he was wrong elsewhere, thus changing the whole map.

I suspected it was something like that. But those 3 states are far closer than Penn, right? It just seems like a huge jump just because Trump gets 1% ore in those 3 states or something like that.

Interesting nonetheless.

 

[Optimus Prime]

if you figure you get roughly 60-70mm voting in person on Tuesday, that will eclipsed 2016 by 20% or more.

Im not sure, but to have 93mm votes cast ALREADY, tells you EXACTLY how people feel about the 2020 election.

I tend to agree but the pandemic adds a layer of mystery to those numbers

I've always been a vote on election day guy

This year for the first time ever I did an absentee ballot, the only reason I did so was because I didn't want to spend who knows how long standing in line with who knows how many other people

That's what I was wondering - how many of the 93 million would have voted tomorrow if it wasn't for covid?

I really hope you're right and all the polls are right and it's an early night tomorrow

 

[CoolBrees]

@JimEverett
They are much closer. But statistics, to use an analogy, are like ponds. Small anomalies are like pebbles being tossed. They ripple outward throughout the whole “pond”

In the case of PA, Silver is assuming it would be a rock, not a pebble and it would more than likely be in the form of under representing white uneducated people - trumps only large demographic that is solidly in his corner. He has stated he has accounted in his model for their undersampling but he is assuming that he was even further off than anticipated- leading to a large swing in areas that have a lot of uneducated white people- like Eastern PA.

 

[jdn9201]

Do not underestimate the fact that women have had it with Trump. Old women, young women, white college-educated suburban women, black women, Hispanic women, Asian women, Jewish women, heck even white no-college women are lower in his support than four years ago, I can’t remember where they ended up.

someone on Twitter said it isn’t a gender gap it’s a gender Grand Canyon.

This - I may be biased since I am a woman, but women are going to decide this election. Trump got 40m votes from women last time and now, I think he’s lucky if he gets half that. I voted for him in 2016 but voted for Biden - it’s the first time I’ve ever voted for a democrat period and I’m almost 40. Both parties suck and I almost voted third party but Trump needs to go and go now...

 

[Ayo]