Election Electoral College predictions (1 Viewer)

[Richard]

To get our minds off of the virus, debates and campaign theatrics for a moment, I thought it might be an interesting exercise to post our predictions of the final Electoral College margin. Of course, any prediction made would be a moment-in-time snapshot of what we think will happen given the current circumstances. Any number of factors could influence the vote over the final month of the campaign.

There are sites that can help you arrive at your prediction. Real Clear Politics and 538 have polling data that can help you come up with a number. I use RCP mostly because they have a good interactive national map that's easy to use and they don't include polls conducted by companies like SurveyMonkey. They do, however include partisan polling, like Trafalgar and Change Research.

My prediction started with looking at a best case scenario for a Trump reelection. I started by putting all of the states shown to lean in one direction in that camp. RCP shows states like Indiana and Missouri leaning Trump and Oregon and Virginia leaning Biden when those states and others like them are certainly going to end up in those columns. That leaves 11 "battleground" states (and two one-vote congressional districts) that theoretically could go either way and gives a picture of a 226-125 Biden lead before assigning a winner in those states. In looking at Trump's best case scenario, I gave him every state in which he is marginally ahead and those he is behind by less less than five points, as well as the two congressional districts. That would provide Biden with a slim 278-260 win. To come out with a better scenario for Trump, you would need to assign one or more of Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or New Hampshire to Trump and he is trailing in all of those states by more than five points.

However, I don't believe that Trump will achieve his best case numbers and Biden could win several more states, like Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. I still think Trump will likely keep Texas, Iowa and Georgia, so my prediction as of today is 353-185 in favor of Biden.

If you choose to participate in this exercise, you are welcome to give different predictions over the course of the next month. I intend to post a final prediction on Nov. 2/3 and may even post a weekly prediction, depending on the level of participation.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

Very true in my neck of the woods. You are either with them or against them, and it is pretty close to an all or nothing thing with them as well. Agree with everything or get out.

That’s why there’s no sign in my front yard. Here your kids take the heat at school as well as the Red Caps (kids wearing MAGA hats to school) taunt kids that support BLM (you’re not allowed to wear BLM clothes to school so they know from social media) or whose parents are known Democrats.

The situation drove a number of black players off what was a very good football team. A number of them transferred to other schools to play and some, like my son, just dropped it completely. My son has played since he was 4 and since we are Facebook friends you know how important football was in his life. This is his first year since pre-k not playing football.

 

[Sandman]

That’s why there’s no sign in my front yard. Here your kids take the heat at school as well as the Red Caps (kids wearing MAGA hats to school) taunt kids that support BLM (you’re not allowed to wear BLM clothes to school so they know from social media) or whose parents are known Democrats.

The situation drove a number of black players off what was a very good football team. A number of them transferred to other schools to play and some, like my son, just dropped it completely. My son has played since he was 4 and since we are Facebook friends you know how important football was in his life. This is his first year since pre-k not playing football.

That is sad. I hear you on no signs in the yard. I have decorations up, and they would be destroyed if I put a Biden sign up in my yard. I did have a Beto sign last time, but the tension just wasn’t the same as it is this year. I think the closeness of the Beto race shocked them a bit, and they are running scared.

If a couple of Democrats go out and wave Biden flags around the area,a group of people with Trump flags immediately show up and start harassing them. They cannot stand seeing someone with a difference of opinion.

Quite honestly, they are using brown shirt tactics. Too many people in this country have no problem with intimidating or allowing the intimidation of those who disagree politically with them.

 

[Maxp]

What really makes me sick about your family's situation SBTB, after obvious impact to your lives, is that you know the parents of the red hat children openly encourage their racism and cruelty. Houston might be the capital of such behavior. I don't know where to recommend would be better, but I'd get the hell out of there.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

What really makes me sick about your family's situation SBTB, after obvious impact to your lives, is that you know the parents of the red hat children openly encourage their racism and cruelty. Houston might be the capital of such behavior. I don't know where to recommend would be better, but I'd get the hell out of there.

My wife will never leave. She is too rooted here. She’s big into local politics and I jokingly call her a Katy socialite. However, even she has lost a lot of friends these last 4 years and says she’s not sure she can do 4 more years of this if Trump wins. So I suspect if he wins we will be leaving Texas at minimum. I’m thinking Virginia, North Carolina or Atlanta, although then I’d have to deal with all 5 of the Falcons fans.

 

[zztop]

What really makes me sick about your family's situation SBTB, after obvious impact to your lives, is that you know the parents of the red hat children openly encourage their racism and cruelty. Houston might be the capital of such behavior. I don't know where to recommend would be better, but I'd get the hell out of there.

I feel that "honor" belongs to vidor texas. A small town notorious for it's open racism and hostility.

 

[zztop]

My wife will never leave. She is too rooted here. She’s big into local politics and I jokingly call her a Katy socialite. However, even she has lost a lot of friends these last 4 years and says she’s not sure she can do 4 more years of this if Trump wins. So I suspect if he wins we will be leaving Texas at minimum. I’m thinking Virginia, North Carolina or Atlanta, although then I’d have to deal with all 5 of the Falcons fans.

I shudder at the thought of Atlanta traffic. I'd say Asheville is nice (my brother lives there) but even a fairly liberal town as that had their BLM police issues (they tore down a medical tent and destroyed water and supplies to people on the sidelines not participating but there to offer aid to anyone). I have a friend that lives in Raleigh and is always saying I should move there

 

[GrandAdmiral]

I didn't realize Kamala was in Texas campaigning today. Biden is going all in for the juggler.

 

[MT15]

The crazy, really crazy, thing is they don’t even just call Biden a liberal, they call him a socialist.

That anchor from CBS looked at Harris and with a dead serious look on her face asked her if she was a socialist. Kamala just burst out laughing, which made me like her a lot. That’s the proper response to that sort of nonsense. You would expect that out of a Fox reporter, not the news anchor at CBS. What an embarrassment.

 

[zztop]

The crazy, really crazy, thing is they don’t even just call Biden a liberal, they call him a socialist.

That anchor from CBS looked at Harris and with a dead serious look on her face asked her if she was a socialist. Kamala just burst out laughing, which made me like her a lot. That’s the proper response to that sort of nonsense. You would expect that out of a Fox reporter, not the news anchor at CBS. What an embarrassment.

As a pretty far left person, I don't consider him anywhere near left as that. That *IS* pretty laughable. To me that just goes to show how far RIGHT the pendulum has swung. When someone like Biden, who could have been considered a republican a couple decades ago, is called socialist, it is pitifully grasping at scare tactics. Nothing but FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt)

 

[DaveXA]

My wife will never leave. She is too rooted here. She’s big into local politics and I jokingly call her a Katy socialite. However, even she has lost a lot of friends these last 4 years and says she’s not sure she can do 4 more years of this if Trump wins. So I suspect if he wins we will be leaving Texas at minimum. I’m thinking Virginia, North Carolina or Atlanta, although then I’d have to deal with all 5 of the Falcons fans.

If you leave, come on up to Virginia. Imo there's plenty to like up here. The food options are eh, but there are so many other things to do, job opportunities in both private and public sectors and of your wife enjoys local politics, there's plenty of that here. Tbh, most people here are pretty chill and it's got a little bit of everything. It's not perfect, but all in all, it's pretty great. With your resume, I think you'll find good opportunities in no time.

And you know me, you'd be welcome in my home anytime.

 

[B4YOU]

@Saint by the Bay
Let’s hope you enjoy a Biden win in Texas. That said, NoVa really is nice. It’s got 4 seasons. You are close enough for a ski day or beach day. So much history in the area. Museums are free in DC. There are still red hats but you aren’t out numbered.

 

[DaveXA]

@Saint by the Bay
Let’s hope you enjoy a Biden win in Texas. That said, NoVa really is nice. It’s got 4 seasons. You are close enough for a ski day or beach day. So much history in the area. Museums are free in DC. There are still red hats but you aren’t out numbered.

In all honesty, here where I live, I can't remember the last time I saw a red hat. There are MAGA types here, but most are pretty quiet about it. I see a lot of Biden signs in yards. Trump ones are few and far between. My 2 boys like Trump, my 2 girls loathe him. My wife is a Trumper . Me...you all know.

Yeah, my family is weird, but long ago, I told my kids I ain't telling them what to think about religion and politics. They're responsible for finding their own way and I'm not gonna try and make them think a certain way.

We all get along fine though. We can even talk politics, but we're not gonna get whack over any of it because none of my family care much for either political party and politics is ultimately something we don't have a lot of control over. We're just sort of here for the ride to some degree.

Put it this way, in my house, there's nothing political anywhere. No signs in the yard, no books, nothing. The only way you'll figure out anything about us is political, you have to ask us directly. I value my neighbors and friends more than politics. Some can't help themselves, and I just nod may head because I'm not gonna change their mind unless they want me to.

 

[SFIDC3]

@Saint by the Bay
Let’s hope you enjoy a Biden win in Texas. That said, NoVa really is nice. It’s got 4 seasons. You are close enough for a ski day or beach day. So much history in the area. Museums are free in DC. There are still red hats but you aren’t out numbered.

I’ve lived in the DC (specifically) MD suburbs since I moved here in ‘89. It is expensive to live here, taxes are high (especially property taxes).....BUT....in most areas the public schools are great (you don’t have to spend tons of money on private schools), tons of parks and outdoor activities. As someone said a few hours to the beach or to the mountains. There are a ton of folks from all races, nationalities, there is a good sense of community IMO.

Wages are higher here also for the most part so it kind of balances out. It is a great area to raise your kids IMO....

 

[Sandman]

I would like to move to North Carolina, Northern Virginia, or maybe even Pennsylvania around Gettysburg. I love the mountains in North Carolina. I am also kind of a civil war nut, and I would love to go around to all the different battlefields. Honestly, I am sick of living on the Gulf Coast with the heat, humidity, and hurricanes. Let's pack all our stuff and go SBTB!

 

[Ayo]

Toronto is lovely

 

[Saint by the Bay]

Toronto is lovely

Thats where I really want to go but as much as Angie loves my family out there she isn’t up for being that far away from everyone.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Thats where I really want to go but as much as Angie loves my family out there she isn’t up for being that far away from everyone.

One of the few reasons I haven't moved there. Plus, my girlfriend hates the cold (I love it though).

 

[Saint by the Bay]

One of the few reasons I haven't moved there. Plus, my girlfriend hates the cold (I love it though).

My Mom grew up there and refuses to go visit during the winter. If I want her to come with us when we go up it’s summer or spring only.