Election Electoral College predictions (2 Viewers)

Users who are viewing this thread

    Richard

    Well-known member
    Staff member
    Joined
    Oct 6, 2018
    Messages
    470
    Reaction score
    1,039
    Location
    Soso, MS
    Offline
    To get our minds off of the virus, debates and campaign theatrics for a moment, I thought it might be an interesting exercise to post our predictions of the final Electoral College margin. Of course, any prediction made would be a moment-in-time snapshot of what we think will happen given the current circumstances. Any number of factors could influence the vote over the final month of the campaign.

    There are sites that can help you arrive at your prediction. Real Clear Politics and 538 have polling data that can help you come up with a number. I use RCP mostly because they have a good interactive national map that's easy to use and they don't include polls conducted by companies like SurveyMonkey. They do, however include partisan polling, like Trafalgar and Change Research.

    My prediction started with looking at a best case scenario for a Trump reelection. I started by putting all of the states shown to lean in one direction in that camp. RCP shows states like Indiana and Missouri leaning Trump and Oregon and Virginia leaning Biden when those states and others like them are certainly going to end up in those columns. That leaves 11 "battleground" states (and two one-vote congressional districts) that theoretically could go either way and gives a picture of a 226-125 Biden lead before assigning a winner in those states. In looking at Trump's best case scenario, I gave him every state in which he is marginally ahead and those he is behind by less less than five points, as well as the two congressional districts. That would provide Biden with a slim 278-260 win. To come out with a better scenario for Trump, you would need to assign one or more of Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or New Hampshire to Trump and he is trailing in all of those states by more than five points.

    However, I don't believe that Trump will achieve his best case numbers and Biden could win several more states, like Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. I still think Trump will likely keep Texas, Iowa and Georgia, so my prediction as of today is 353-185 in favor of Biden.

    If you choose to participate in this exercise, you are welcome to give different predictions over the course of the next month. I intend to post a final prediction on Nov. 2/3 and may even post a weekly prediction, depending on the level of participation.
     
    Last edited:
    You had less EV for Biden but picked the same states I did. I couldn’t figure it out until I saw that you had Oregon red. That would have been a bold prediction.
    Yeah, my intent was to have NO bold predictions. That's a big reason I kept Ohio red, since Trump is ahead.
     
    Ok, do over...

    Here's my prediction.

    1603829672268.png
     
    Per RCP:

    Michigan is no longer a tossup and has now moved to leans Biden giving him 232 per their map- Just 38 shy of winning

    These Reuter’s polls show Biden stretching his lead in Wisconsin (+9) and Pennsylvania (+5) as well. And a 10point national lead


     
    Thought a comparison of 538 of one-week-out in 2016 vs. today.
    Biden is in a better position in every one of these states.

    Pennsylvania:
    Clinton +4.5 49.4% (80% chance of winning)
    Biden +5.3 50.2% (86%)

    North Carolina
    Clinton +0.2% (51.4%)
    Biden +2.4% (65%)

    Florida
    Clinton +0.3% (52.2%)
    Biden +2.4% (67%)

    Arizona
    Clinton -1.7 (38%)
    Biden +2.8 (66%)

    Michigan
    Clinton +4.7 (79.8%)
    Biden +8.3 (94%)
     
    Highly unlikely, but consider:

    Take 2016 map and flip Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona.


    LOL
     
    A combination of the obvious Democrat states plus the relatively contested states of Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina would also put Biden over the top. The latter five contested states all count ballots early. Although I'm still skeptical that Biden would win North Carolina.
     
    Another article on Wisconsin
    ======================
    OSHKOSH, Wis. — A retired couple raking leaves in their front yard on Jefferson Street are supporting Donald Trump again, although begrudgingly. Over on Comet Street, a maintenance worker who planted a Hillary Clinton sign on his lawn four years ago now has one that says "Biden 2020" hanging beneath his Green Bay Packers flag.

    But in a ward that went Republican in 2016 by a single vote, it’s their out-of-work neighbor, a restaurant server with three children at home because of the pandemic, who stands out. She will vote differently than she did in 2016 — this time, for the Democrat.......

     
    Have to say I'm a bit concerned about how the situation in Philadelphia could affect things in Pennsylvania these final few days.

    Would probably be wise for Biden to have a great speech there..
    The polls are tightening in PA but Biden is still above 50%. The riots/looting needs to be quelled quickly. If people in Philly don’t/can’t vote it could cost Biden the election.
     
    The Republican counties in Pennsylvania are planning on counting the mail-in ballots last. They are hoping that Trump has a lead on election night, and then can claim “fraud” as the mail-in ballots put Biden over the top.

    This is their strategy. Not to win Pennsylvania, but to put out a story on election night that Trump was winning before the evil mail-in ballots were counted. They know they are losing here, and just want to fabricate a story of voter fraud.
     
    That means almost 49.5% of all currently registered voters in NC have already voted in the 2020 election.

    It seems like NC will be the state to watch early. Registered Ds are +300k votes vs registered Rs. With only 50% left to cast votes, early voting ending Saturday, and unaffiliated polling favorably at 54.6% for Biden, there might not be much room for Trump to make up ground on Election Day.

    BA179A91-7136-4439-A83D-F9051CB75375.jpeg


    A Meredith College Poll released Friday showed that 54.6% of the state’s Unaffiliated voters prefer Biden and 28.2% back Trump.


     

    Create an account or login to comment

    You must be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create account

    Create an account on our community. It's easy!

    Log in

    Already have an account? Log in here.

    Advertisement

    General News Feed

    Fact Checkers News Feed

    Sponsored

    Back
    Top Bottom