Election Electoral College predictions (1 Viewer)

[Richard]

To get our minds off of the virus, debates and campaign theatrics for a moment, I thought it might be an interesting exercise to post our predictions of the final Electoral College margin. Of course, any prediction made would be a moment-in-time snapshot of what we think will happen given the current circumstances. Any number of factors could influence the vote over the final month of the campaign.

There are sites that can help you arrive at your prediction. Real Clear Politics and 538 have polling data that can help you come up with a number. I use RCP mostly because they have a good interactive national map that's easy to use and they don't include polls conducted by companies like SurveyMonkey. They do, however include partisan polling, like Trafalgar and Change Research.

My prediction started with looking at a best case scenario for a Trump reelection. I started by putting all of the states shown to lean in one direction in that camp. RCP shows states like Indiana and Missouri leaning Trump and Oregon and Virginia leaning Biden when those states and others like them are certainly going to end up in those columns. That leaves 11 "battleground" states (and two one-vote congressional districts) that theoretically could go either way and gives a picture of a 226-125 Biden lead before assigning a winner in those states. In looking at Trump's best case scenario, I gave him every state in which he is marginally ahead and those he is behind by less less than five points, as well as the two congressional districts. That would provide Biden with a slim 278-260 win. To come out with a better scenario for Trump, you would need to assign one or more of Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or New Hampshire to Trump and he is trailing in all of those states by more than five points.

However, I don't believe that Trump will achieve his best case numbers and Biden could win several more states, like Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. I still think Trump will likely keep Texas, Iowa and Georgia, so my prediction as of today is 353-185 in favor of Biden.

If you choose to participate in this exercise, you are welcome to give different predictions over the course of the next month. I intend to post a final prediction on Nov. 2/3 and may even post a weekly prediction, depending on the level of participation.

 

[DaveXA]

Yeah, I think that statement from Kavanaugh is disturbing. He seems to be saying that he’s willing to disenfranchise voters because the state is taking too long to count their votes.

That just cannot be a valid view, and it’s a straight up Trumpist talking point. I worry about Kavanaugh’s integrity. I’m just not sure he can be trusted to decide on the merits rather than along party lines.

I think he's a lost cause tbh. I'd focus my energy on Roberts and Gorsuch looking to build consensus within the court on this. Kavanaugh surely hasn't forgotten how he was treated in the confirmation hearings and I think he'll forever resent that and it will affect some of the opinions he writes.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

My biggest concern with Kavanaugh wasn’t his behavior in high school, it was what a blatant naked partisan he was and how poor his judicial temperament is. I have zero hope he will ever pass up an opportunity at a ruling that would stick it to the libs.

I don’t get the same sense from ACB, to be honest. I know she has had some odd rulings, but I think she at least strives to be impartial even if she sometimes gets herself twisted up trying to get her judicial rulings to match her personal moral philosophy.

I’m not sure how she’d rule on the impending election cases, but I think we will learn a lot about what type of justice she will be from them.

 

[MT15]

A couple of Twitter takes on what Kavanaugh said

 

[Nebaghead]

My prediction.

Everyone keeps forgetting the blue dot in Nebraska. Essentially the city of Omaha is one district. Omaha will go blue. Hillary only lost here by a less then a percentage point. I know a half dozen people who couldn’t vote for hillary last time and either voted Trump or Gary Johnson and are voting Biden this time.
Trump
Is holding a rally tomorrow here. The city is pissed because we have covid cases spiking. It because it isn’t in city limits they can’t do anything.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Everyone keeps forgetting the blue dot in Nebraska. Essentially the city of Omaha is one district. Omaha will go blue. Hillary only lost here by a less then a percentage point. I know a half dozen people who couldn’t vote for hillary last time and either voted Trump or Gary Johnson and are voting Biden this time.
Trump
Is holding a rally tomorrow here. The city is pissed because we have covid cases spiking. It because it isn’t in city limits they can’t do anything.

Idiot is on a damn COVID tour. Let's go to all of the hotspots because they told me I'm Superma... I mean immune.

 

[DaveXA]

My biggest concern with Kavanaugh wasn’t his behavior in high school, it was what a blatant naked partisan he was and how poor his judicial temperament is. I have zero hope he will ever pass up an opportunity at a ruling that would stick it to the libs.

I don’t get the same sense from ACB, to be honest. I know she has had some odd rulings, but I think she at least strives to be impartial even if she sometimes gets herself twisted up trying to get her judicial rulings to match her personal moral philosophy.

I’m not sure how she’d rule on the impending election cases, but I think we will learn a lot about what type of justice she will be from them.

Well said. Roberts in particular surprised me with a number of his rulings and Gorsuch seems to be nothing if not pragmatic. So, I'm hoping ACB is closer on the spectrum to Roberts than to Thomas or Kavanaugh. They not actually always slam dunks. I guess we'll find out when she concurs or dissects. I'm really curious to see how she writes opinions.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Well said. Roberts in particular surprised me with a number of his rulings and Gorsuch seems to be nothing if not pragmatic. So, I'm hoping ACB is closer on the spectrum to Roberts than to Thomas or Kavanaugh. They not actually always slam dunks. I guess we'll find out when she concurs or dissects. I'm really curious to see how she writes opinions.

Oh. She's definitely dissecting Roe.

 

[insidejob]

If Trump does steal this election will one of y'all bail me out of jail? Or at least put money on my books?

 

[MT15]

Okay, this lady always makes me feel better. After reading her, I feel better than I did about what Kavanaugh was saying. She has a lot of tweets that go into the details on the rulings, so you may have to follow through several threads, but she is a good follow.

 

[Nebaghead]

Okay, this lady always makes me feel better. After reading her, I feel better than I did about what Kavanaugh was saying. She has a lot of tweets that go into the details on the rulings, so you may have to follow through several threads, but she is a good follow.

Especially since California is always counting ballots weeks after the election.

 

[DaveXA]

Oh. She's definitely dissecting Roe.

Lol, I meant dissent. Stupid spell check.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Lol, I meant dissent. Stupid spell check.

Either word works though

 

[DaveXA]

Either word works though

Sort of, she can't dissent on Roe, but she can dissent or concur with a case that potentially could overturn Roe. Now she might dissect Roe in a case related to it, but I'm not sure she'll be doing that much because with her being a junior justice, she may just concur or agree with the dissenting opinion depending on the case. The court has handed down unexpected decisions in the past, so this isn't at all set in stone. We'll see i guess.

 

[wardorican]

Maybe the ACB chat in here is a little out of place?

 

[insidejob]

Sort of, she can't dissent on Roe, but she can dissent or concur with a case that potentially could overturn Roe. Now she might dissect Roe in a case related to it, but I'm not sure she'll be doing that much because with her being a junior justice, she may just concur or agree with the dissenting opinion depending on the case. The court has handed down unexpected decisions in the past, so this isn't at all set in stone. We'll see i guess.

Isn't it Casey (my memory is awful) that they'll try to overturn (and likely succeed), not Roe?

 

[DaveXA]

Maybe the ACB chat in here is a little out of place?

Well, it started with the Kavanaugh opinion about absentee and late ballots being counted, and sort of morphed into how ACB would rule on this since she's now on the court.

 

[insidejob]

Maybe the ACB chat in here is a little out of place?

Well, yeah. But here it is.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

Maybe the ACB chat in here is a little out of place?

I think as long as the discussion is around how they will rule on election questions it's relevant here or in the Voting Issues thread, but maybe better in that thread than this one.