Election Electoral College predictions (6 Viewers)

[Richard]

To get our minds off of the virus, debates and campaign theatrics for a moment, I thought it might be an interesting exercise to post our predictions of the final Electoral College margin. Of course, any prediction made would be a moment-in-time snapshot of what we think will happen given the current circumstances. Any number of factors could influence the vote over the final month of the campaign.

There are sites that can help you arrive at your prediction. Real Clear Politics and 538 have polling data that can help you come up with a number. I use RCP mostly because they have a good interactive national map that's easy to use and they don't include polls conducted by companies like SurveyMonkey. They do, however include partisan polling, like Trafalgar and Change Research.

My prediction started with looking at a best case scenario for a Trump reelection. I started by putting all of the states shown to lean in one direction in that camp. RCP shows states like Indiana and Missouri leaning Trump and Oregon and Virginia leaning Biden when those states and others like them are certainly going to end up in those columns. That leaves 11 "battleground" states (and two one-vote congressional districts) that theoretically could go either way and gives a picture of a 226-125 Biden lead before assigning a winner in those states. In looking at Trump's best case scenario, I gave him every state in which he is marginally ahead and those he is behind by less less than five points, as well as the two congressional districts. That would provide Biden with a slim 278-260 win. To come out with a better scenario for Trump, you would need to assign one or more of Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or New Hampshire to Trump and he is trailing in all of those states by more than five points.

However, I don't believe that Trump will achieve his best case numbers and Biden could win several more states, like Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. I still think Trump will likely keep Texas, Iowa and Georgia, so my prediction as of today is 353-185 in favor of Biden.

If you choose to participate in this exercise, you are welcome to give different predictions over the course of the next month. I intend to post a final prediction on Nov. 2/3 and may even post a weekly prediction, depending on the level of participation.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Part of me hopes this is the media wanting it to look like it's close

======================================
With just eight days to go before the election, both national poll and swing state surveys make it clear the race is tightening.

President Donald Trump gained on his Democratic challenger Joe Biden in national polling averages, and in nine of 12 contested states. But Biden still holds a sizable lead in the national polls and is still ahead of Trump in 10 of the 12 states that could decide the election.

Biden's average lead is only 3 percentage points or more in five of the swing states, but those include the crucial states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that Trump flipped in 2016.

And while Trump grew his modest lead in Ohio and cut Biden's leads in Arizona, Florida and Georgia further down to size, he also lost ground in Texas and Iowa.................

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[efil4]

Part of me hopes this is the media wanting it to look like it's close

======================================
With just eight days to go before the election, both national poll and swing state surveys make it clear the race is tightening.

President Donald Trump gained on his Democratic challenger Joe Biden in national polling averages, and in nine of 12 contested states. But Biden still holds a sizable lead in the national polls and is still ahead of Trump in 10 of the 12 states that could decide the election.

Biden's average lead is only 3 percentage points or more in five of the swing states, but those include the crucial states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that Trump flipped in 2016.

And while Trump grew his modest lead in Ohio and cut Biden's leads in Arizona, Florida and Georgia further down to size, he also lost ground in Texas and Iowa.................

MSN

www.msn.com

this wont be good for SBTB.

 

[Sandman]

I am seeing a lot of polls by Republican sponsors that appear to be geared toward making it look closer than it is. RCP counts a number of those polls in its averages. If you throw out the partisan polls (both Dem and Rep), the race is pretty steady and has been for a while.
RCP is even using Insider Advantage polls with American Greatness. Go check out American Greatness’s twitter feed and tell me that isn’t a bias poll.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

this wont be good for SBTB.

 

[CoolBrees]

That is a mechanism of RCP and their polls. Three groups showed tightening- Trafalger, Susquehanna and Rasmussen.

Trafalger is well Trafalger. Susquehanna is just regurgitating The Center is American Greatness just like insider advantage is. Seriously. If you click on the pollster is shows you their poll and several are the same- the center for American Greatness.

Rasmussen has been an R poll forever. In fact their latest had Trump winning the general vote- which is absurd.

You remove these polls and the data is almost exactly where it has been since the beginning of September - Biden comfortably ahead nationally and ahead but close in most battleground. But well outside the MoE still in the four that matter

 

[Lapaz]

While a majority of early voting favors Biden, a majority of in-day voting favors Trump. Since much of the mail-in vote won't be counted until after election day, even if they start counting on election day, it will probably appear that Trump has won by a landslide by the end of election day, and he will claim victory. With that "mandate", he will be much more emboldened to do everything in his power to prevent the mail-in votes from being counted if they haven't already been counted by the end of the day. There are 9 states with close polling that won't start counting until 3 NOV: Georgia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Texas. It is likely that all of these will initially appear to have been won by Trump by the end of the day, but I believe all of them except Texas and possibly Georgia will be won by Biden if their votes are counted fairly. There are many others that shouldn't be close, like California, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Wyoming, District of Columbia, and Idaho which should not change even if many of their mail-in votes have not been counted.

When states can begin processing and counting absentee/mail-in ballots, 2020

Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics

ballotpedia.org

 

[Complex Kid]

 

[bdb13]

While a majority of early voting favors Biden, a majority of in-day voting favors Trump. Since much of the mail-in vote won't be counted until after election day, even if they start counting on election day, it will probably appear that Trump has won by a landslide by the end of election day, and he will claim victory. With that "mandate", he will be much more emboldened to do everything in his power to prevent the mail-in votes from being counted if they haven't already been counted by the end of the day. There are 9 states with close polling that won't start counting until 3 NOV: Georgia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Texas. It is likely that all of these will initially appear to have been won by Trump by the end of the day, but I believe all of them except Texas and possibly Georgia will be won by Biden if their votes are counted fairly. There are many others that shouldn't be close, like California, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Wyoming, District of Columbia, and Idaho which should not change even if many of their mail-in votes have not been counted.

When states can begin processing and counting absentee/mail-in ballots, 2020

Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics

ballotpedia.org

If Biden wins Florida and/or North Carolina - two states that have already been counting mail in ballots and should be able to provide results that night unless the margin's razor thin - it would entirely cut the legs out from under Trump's attempt at that as there's not really a plausible scenario where Biden loses the election if he wins one or both of those states.

 

[Lapaz]

Wow, that's an interesting tabulation. Biden is safely ahead by at least 4 points in 28 of the 69 districts, while Trump only has 6 of 69 with safe leads. If Biden holds on to all of the districts in which he leads, he will have flipped 34 of the 54 districts that Trump won last time. With the widening trend, Trump could easily lose another 14 of the remaining districts that he won in 2016, since his lead is under 4 points in 14 of the 20 in which he leads. That is all subject to the votes actually being counted!

 

[bdb13]

Lol

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Sorry. Got triggered.

It is indeed funny how Freedom of Religion manages to get warped into Freedom to Enforce My Religion onto Everyone Else.

Re: skewed polling. I think Trafalgar, Rasmussen, et al. are cooking the numbers close so as to not disillusion Trump voters from coming out on election day.

 

[Optimus Prime]

When it became clear that the pandemic was still going to be with us in November and mail in/absentee ballots were going to play a major role in the election why didn't the states change the law that prevented them from counting the votes as they came in, instead of having to wait until Election Day to start counting?

For the exact reason to avoid this potential cluster of Trump being ahead on in person voting on Tuesday him declaring victory then a week later when all the votes are tabulated saying 'oh, Biden actually won'

 

[Lapaz]

If Biden wins Florida and/or North Carolina - two states that have already been counting mail in ballots and should be able to provide results that night unless the margin's razor thin - it would entirely cut the legs out from under Trump's attempt at that as there's not really a plausible scenario where Biden loses the election if he wins one or both of those states.

Even if Florida and North Carolina have results by the end of the day, and Biden wins them, that won't be enough to get to 270. If you assume that California and DC is Biden's and Texas, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas and Idaho will be called for Trump, and all of the rest of the states that start counting on 3 NOV are not called, then Biden will need Ohio to put him over 270. This is the way I think the map will look at the end of the day on the 3rd:

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

With a fair count, then this is the best case scenario for the way the map will look on inauguration day.

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

 

[bdb13]

Even if Florida and North Carolina have results by the end of the day, and Biden wins them, that won't be enough to get to 270. If you assume that California and DC is Biden's and Texas, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas and Idaho will be called for Trump, and all of the rest of the states that start counting on 3 NOV are not called, then Biden will need Ohio to put him over 270. This is the way I think the map will look at the end of the day on the 3rd:

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

With a fair count, then this is the best case scenario for the way the map will look on inauguration day.

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

If Biden wins Florida and/or North Carolina.. well it just wouldn't make much sense for Biden to have won in one or both of those states while simultaneously losing in Wisconsin and/or Michigan.

Trump just won't be able to effectively sell that false narrative if Biden wins one of those two states imo.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

When it became clear that the pandemic was still going to be with us in November and mail in/absentee ballots were going to play a major role in the election why didn't the states change the law that prevented them from counting the votes as they came in, instead of having to wait until Election Day to start counting?

For the exact reason to avoid this potential cluster of Trump being ahead on in person voting on Tuesday him declaring victory then a week later when all the votes are tabulated saying 'oh, Biden actually won'

Entirely by design.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

The Federalist Society types would argue D.C. was contemplated as a federal enclave and that it would require a constitutional amendment to make it a state (there was a prior attempt back in the 60's or so) to give it Congressional voting representation by way of amendment. Ultimately the 23rd Amendment gave it the right to vote in Presidential elections so the obvious parallel is that you would need an amendment to make it a state.

The Democrats are technically right that admission of a new state merely takes a majority vote of Congress (combined with a preliminary referendum from the territory asking for admission). This works for Puerto Rico (or American Samoa or similar territories) but arguably not for D.C. which had those separate Constitutional considerations. The Democrats would try to side-step Constitutional implications by still keeping a federal enclave (a new D.C.) but limiting it to the narrow boundaries of the White House, Capitol Building, monuments, etc. A separate issue with that is whether or not Virginia and Maryland would have to approve of the ceding of this land to constitute the new territory/state as they originally ceded it to create the current D.C.

Long story short: I think there is enough in the Constitution for the conservative majority on the Supreme Court to block it. Puerto Rico, on the other hand, the courts could no more stop that than Alaska or Hawaii.

Considering the SCOTUS we're about to get, most definitely. But who knows?

 

[B4YOU]

If Biden wins Florida and/or North Carolina - two states that have already been counting mail in ballots and should be able to provide results that night unless the margin's razor thin - it would entirely cut the legs out from under Trump's attempt at that as there's not really a plausible scenario where Biden loses the election if he wins one or both of those states.

Fl, NC, and AZ all will report fairly quickly. Nate Silver did a 2min video where he puts Biden at 99% to win the EC if he wins either FL or NC and 98% if he win AZ.

Do You Buy That … We Will Know Who Won On Election Night?

Visit the post for more.

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Fl, NC, and AZ all will report fairly quickly. Nate Silver did a 2min video where he puts Biden at 99% to win the EC if he wins either FL or NC and 98% if he win AZ.

Do You Buy That … We Will Know Who Won On Election Night?

Visit the post for more.

fivethirtyeight.com

I enjoy 538's podcasts. As much as I love the chemistry between Nate and Gallen, it's even better when the others are on board.