Election Electoral College predictions (5 Viewers)

[Richard]

To get our minds off of the virus, debates and campaign theatrics for a moment, I thought it might be an interesting exercise to post our predictions of the final Electoral College margin. Of course, any prediction made would be a moment-in-time snapshot of what we think will happen given the current circumstances. Any number of factors could influence the vote over the final month of the campaign.

There are sites that can help you arrive at your prediction. Real Clear Politics and 538 have polling data that can help you come up with a number. I use RCP mostly because they have a good interactive national map that's easy to use and they don't include polls conducted by companies like SurveyMonkey. They do, however include partisan polling, like Trafalgar and Change Research.

My prediction started with looking at a best case scenario for a Trump reelection. I started by putting all of the states shown to lean in one direction in that camp. RCP shows states like Indiana and Missouri leaning Trump and Oregon and Virginia leaning Biden when those states and others like them are certainly going to end up in those columns. That leaves 11 "battleground" states (and two one-vote congressional districts) that theoretically could go either way and gives a picture of a 226-125 Biden lead before assigning a winner in those states. In looking at Trump's best case scenario, I gave him every state in which he is marginally ahead and those he is behind by less less than five points, as well as the two congressional districts. That would provide Biden with a slim 278-260 win. To come out with a better scenario for Trump, you would need to assign one or more of Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or New Hampshire to Trump and he is trailing in all of those states by more than five points.

However, I don't believe that Trump will achieve his best case numbers and Biden could win several more states, like Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. I still think Trump will likely keep Texas, Iowa and Georgia, so my prediction as of today is 353-185 in favor of Biden.

If you choose to participate in this exercise, you are welcome to give different predictions over the course of the next month. I intend to post a final prediction on Nov. 2/3 and may even post a weekly prediction, depending on the level of participation.

 

[insidejob]

One challenge for Louisiana is even the white people in their urban areas tend to vote Republican. So while the huge black population in New Orleans turns it blue from an overall vote count standpoint I think 70ish percent of whites in Orleans Parish are voting red.

The thing about Orleans Parish is that the only Republicans with an actual shot on the ballot (mine, at least, this time around) were Trump and Scalise (screw him and his gerrymandered district) because no Republican is winning anything outside of District A in Orleans (another gerrymandered district). And I really think that 70% number is likely closer to 50% of white people in Orleans now. The post-K population brought in a ton of young white people who are anything but Republican and a lot of the older white people stayed on the Northshore, in Metairie, Baton Rouge and wherever the hell else they found their safe space.

ETA: Chuck D put it best sometime after Trump was elected. "MAGA is precisely what I had in mind 30 years ago when I wrote Fear of a Black Planet."

 

[wardorican]

Hey, at least Texans' vote for president actually counts. It gets old knowing Louisiana is going Republican for president regardless of turnout in New Orleans. I'll never understand why so many rural, podunk towns across the country constantly vote against their interests. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Guns and abortion. Get over it already.

One day, people will realize it's better to vote for another party, and then get that party to bend to your beliefs on one or two items.

 

[coldseat]

I can't see him winning TX. Not with fun things like 1 drop box per county that the TX governor instituted. Take Harris county, which is where Houston is in. Houston has like 2.5 million people. ONE box for 2.5 million. From my 2 minutes of googling, it seems 54% of Harris county voted democrat. I can't imagine why the (R) governor did such a thing.

I'm honestly not sure this will have that much of an impact. It is certainly a suppression tactic that is meant to make it harder, but Texas didn't expand mail in voting because of the pandemic. In fact, they went out of their way to to let voters know that fear of catching Covid_19 was not a valid reason to apply for an absentee ballot.

Republicans here do a lot of things that discourages people from registering and to make things just a little harder to vote. For most people like myself, it's mostly an inconvenience at times. But for some poor or elderly folks without means or enough knowledge of the system, the inconvenience/disenfranchisement is enough to discourage them from voting. They don't really try to make it easier to access for everybody. Having said that, the state actually does a really good job with early voting. This year in particular, at least form my personal experience, it was in and out in 15 minutes, with very good safety protocols to protect both volunteers and voters. I don't know if that's just here in Bexar country of if it's state wide, but the process was very streamlined.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

I totally agree, but 2018 seemed to be turning point in Texas. There seems to be enough people in the major metro areas to actually carry a Democrat on a national ticket. Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio (kinda) is much better than the measly 400K or so people in Orleans Parish trying to carry the state. Even the GNO area is all republican. It's literally just Orleans Parish at this point.

2020 MAY be the year, but I think 2024 is more likely, especially with so many people moving to Texas from blue states like California. There's a title wave happening here that's going to swamp rural Texas.

One challenge for Louisiana is even the white people in their urban areas tend to vote Republican. So while the huge black population in New Orleans turns it blue from an overall vote count standpoint I think 70ish percent of whites in Orleans Parish are voting red.

In the Texas urban areas, it's about 50-50 and the GOP is dead in the water with only 50% of the white vote.

Yep. I see East Baton Rouge Parish as an example as well. Only difference is I firmly see the parish having a Republican mayor/president soon as more conservatives move to the suburbs (Central and Zachary). Katrina might've delayed that as the slew of New Orleans evacuees moved to Baton Rouge and never left.

 

[insidejob]

One day, people will realize it's better to vote for another party, and then get that party to bend to your beliefs on one or two items.

You mean actually get involved? Nobody has time for that. They'd rather just birch about the other party being socialists or fascists without even knowing what the words mean. Coming from a family that's been in politics since the 1930's in New Orleans I can tell you that the OPDEC and things like that are a complete joke. Even the statewide committees are a joke because it's just understood that Republicans will always stay in power here until Generation Z starts reproducing.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

Aggregate polling is starting to spread out again in favor of Biden, including in most BG states. With only 1 week to go, that's probably all she wrote unless there is some major polling error, which I can only see being related to New Voters.

I'm still going to be drunk as all get out next Tuesday and may even have to indulge in my wife's special flowers I'll be so anxious, but from a polling standpoint, I think the nervousness about the race tightening is over.

 

[efil4]

I think the nervousness about the race tightening is over.

well its about time.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Good article on where things are at
=================================
You will be unsurprised to learn that, according to a poll released on Friday by the New York Times and Siena College, President Trump leads former vice president Joe Biden in Montana. Montana is almost definitionally red, part of the phalanx of Republican states that’s draped over the western Plains and Rocky Mountains.

You might be surprised, though, to learn the margin of Trump’s lead. It’s only seven points, which, if that margin were to hold until Election Day, would represent a 13-point swing away from Trump relative to his 2016 support.

More remarkably, that’s as narrow a race as the pollsters measured in both Michigan and Wisconsin, states Trump won by tiny margins four years ago. In Michigan, the Times-Siena poll had Biden up eight points; in Wisconsin, he was up 10.

This is one poll, of course. By now you’re likely savvy enough to know that its generally more useful to consider polling averages than individual polls. We took the most recent (as of writing) averages in each state, as compiled by FiveThirtyEight, and ordered the states by the current polling margin.

The results are striking.

The state that’s closest at the moment is — Texas. If Joe Biden wins Texas, it’s over.

But it doesn’t get less weird. Georgia, Iowa and Ohio — which Trump won in 2016 by five, nine and eight points, respectively — are the next three closest states. What’s more, Biden leads in the first two.

Notice where Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin land. In 2016, Trump’s narrow wins in those three states earned him the presidency. Now, Biden leads by at least six points in each. Arizona is closer than any of those three states. Alaska is closer.....................

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/23/electoral-map-is-very-weird-right-now/?no_nav=true

 

[bdb13]

Aggregate polling is starting to spread out again in favor of Biden, including in most BG states. With only 1 week to go, that's probably all she wrote unless there is some major polling error, which I can only see being related to New Voters.

I'm still going to be drunk as all get out next Tuesday and may even have to indulge in my wife's special flowers I'll be so anxious, but from a polling standpoint, I think the nervousness about the race tightening is over.

If you start feeling that nervousness again in the next week just try to remember that these idiots are running the worst campaign ever

 

[Taurus]

Good article on where things are at
=================================
You will be unsurprised to learn that, according to a poll released on Friday by the New York Times and Siena College, President Trump leads former vice president Joe Biden in Montana. Montana is almost definitionally red, part of the phalanx of Republican states that’s draped over the western Plains and Rocky Mountains.

You might be surprised, though, to learn the margin of Trump’s lead. It’s only seven points, which, if that margin were to hold until Election Day, would represent a 13-point swing away from Trump relative to his 2016 support.

More remarkably, that’s as narrow a race as the pollsters measured in both Michigan and Wisconsin, states Trump won by tiny margins four years ago. In Michigan, the Times-Siena poll had Biden up eight points; in Wisconsin, he was up 10.

This is one poll, of course. By now you’re likely savvy enough to know that its generally more useful to consider polling averages than individual polls. We took the most recent (as of writing) averages in each state, as compiled by FiveThirtyEight, and ordered the states by the current polling margin.

The results are striking.

The state that’s closest at the moment is — Texas. If Joe Biden wins Texas, it’s over.

But it doesn’t get less weird. Georgia, Iowa and Ohio — which Trump won in 2016 by five, nine and eight points, respectively — are the next three closest states. What’s more, Biden leads in the first two.

Notice where Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin land. In 2016, Trump’s narrow wins in those three states earned him the presidency. Now, Biden leads by at least six points in each. Arizona is closer than any of those three states. Alaska is closer.....................

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/23/electoral-map-is-very-weird-right-now/?no_nav=true

But just look at all the land voting for Trump! Between Alaska, Wyoming and the Dakotas, he's got this in the bag.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Good article on where things are at
=================================
You will be unsurprised to learn that, according to a poll released on Friday by the New York Times and Siena College, President Trump leads former vice president Joe Biden in Montana. Montana is almost definitionally red, part of the phalanx of Republican states that’s draped over the western Plains and Rocky Mountains.

You might be surprised, though, to learn the margin of Trump’s lead. It’s only seven points, which, if that margin were to hold until Election Day, would represent a 13-point swing away from Trump relative to his 2016 support.

More remarkably, that’s as narrow a race as the pollsters measured in both Michigan and Wisconsin, states Trump won by tiny margins four years ago. In Michigan, the Times-Siena poll had Biden up eight points; in Wisconsin, he was up 10.

This is one poll, of course. By now you’re likely savvy enough to know that its generally more useful to consider polling averages than individual polls. We took the most recent (as of writing) averages in each state, as compiled by FiveThirtyEight, and ordered the states by the current polling margin.

The results are striking.

The state that’s closest at the moment is — Texas. If Joe Biden wins Texas, it’s over.

But it doesn’t get less weird. Georgia, Iowa and Ohio — which Trump won in 2016 by five, nine and eight points, respectively — are the next three closest states. What’s more, Biden leads in the first two.

Notice where Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin land. In 2016, Trump’s narrow wins in those three states earned him the presidency. Now, Biden leads by at least six points in each. Arizona is closer than any of those three states. Alaska is closer.....................

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/23/electoral-map-is-very-weird-right-now/?no_nav=true

Dammit to hell, Louisiana!!! You've outdone Mississippi again.

 

[DaveXA]

Dammit to hell, Louisiana!!! You've outdone Mississippi again.

The DC one is pretty funny. Lol. 80%

 

[CoolBrees]

2016 was the strap-on in Se7en for the lust victim level of defeat. I don’t know if we can survive another.

I am cautiously optimistic this time but even though i work through the data every day I can’t shake the felling of being the guy sitting on the bed explaining while sobbing uncontrollably to Morgan Freeman what happened.

That article (thanks @Optimus Prime ) showing that even if the polls are off the same margin as 2016, Biden gets over 320 EVs makes me
Feel better. Even if the polls are waaay off - all the way to a 4.5 point margin which is out of the MoE so crazy off- Biden still wins.

I love the thought that if they are off the same margins as last time, only in the opposite direction, Biden will be over 400 EVs and it will be the second largest blowout in modern history only to Reagan. Which is exactly what I think this nation needs to begin to heal from Rock bottom which is where I hope we are at.

 

[Optimus Prime]

The DC one is pretty funny. Lol. 80%

DC - Democrat Central

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Hence why D.C. Statehood is such a coveted 'get' -- although there are some legitimate Constitutional arguments against it.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Hence why D.C. Statehood is such a coveted 'get' -- although there are some legitimate Constitutional arguments against it.

I've been meaning to jump in researching that idea from DC's earliest days (logistically, etc.) to now. Granted, we might have different viewpoints on things (you being in law; me in con. history), but who knows. To the stacks I go...

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

I've been meaning to jump in researching that idea from DC's earliest days (logistically, etc.) to now. Granted, we might have different viewpoints on things (you being in law; me in con. history), but who knows. To the stacks I go...

The Federalist Society types would argue D.C. was contemplated as a federal enclave and that it would require a constitutional amendment to make it a state (there was a prior attempt back in the 60's or so) to give it Congressional voting representation by way of amendment. Ultimately the 23rd Amendment gave it the right to vote in Presidential elections so the obvious parallel is that you would need an amendment to make it a state.

The Democrats are technically right that admission of a new state merely takes a majority vote of Congress (combined with a preliminary referendum from the territory asking for admission). This works for Puerto Rico (or American Samoa or similar territories) but arguably not for D.C. which had those separate Constitutional considerations. The Democrats would try to side-step Constitutional implications by still keeping a federal enclave (a new D.C.) but limiting it to the narrow boundaries of the White House, Capitol Building, monuments, etc. A separate issue with that is whether or not Virginia and Maryland would have to approve of the ceding of this land to constitute the new territory/state as they originally ceded it to create the current D.C.

Long story short: I think there is enough in the Constitution for the conservative majority on the Supreme Court to block it. Puerto Rico, on the other hand, the courts could no more stop that than Alaska or Hawaii.

 

[insidejob]

The Federalist Society types are a bunch of hypocritical morons who are trying to destroy this country via religion.

Sorry. Got triggered.