Election Electoral College predictions (2 Viewers)

[Richard]

To get our minds off of the virus, debates and campaign theatrics for a moment, I thought it might be an interesting exercise to post our predictions of the final Electoral College margin. Of course, any prediction made would be a moment-in-time snapshot of what we think will happen given the current circumstances. Any number of factors could influence the vote over the final month of the campaign.

There are sites that can help you arrive at your prediction. Real Clear Politics and 538 have polling data that can help you come up with a number. I use RCP mostly because they have a good interactive national map that's easy to use and they don't include polls conducted by companies like SurveyMonkey. They do, however include partisan polling, like Trafalgar and Change Research.

My prediction started with looking at a best case scenario for a Trump reelection. I started by putting all of the states shown to lean in one direction in that camp. RCP shows states like Indiana and Missouri leaning Trump and Oregon and Virginia leaning Biden when those states and others like them are certainly going to end up in those columns. That leaves 11 "battleground" states (and two one-vote congressional districts) that theoretically could go either way and gives a picture of a 226-125 Biden lead before assigning a winner in those states. In looking at Trump's best case scenario, I gave him every state in which he is marginally ahead and those he is behind by less less than five points, as well as the two congressional districts. That would provide Biden with a slim 278-260 win. To come out with a better scenario for Trump, you would need to assign one or more of Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or New Hampshire to Trump and he is trailing in all of those states by more than five points.

However, I don't believe that Trump will achieve his best case numbers and Biden could win several more states, like Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. I still think Trump will likely keep Texas, Iowa and Georgia, so my prediction as of today is 353-185 in favor of Biden.

If you choose to participate in this exercise, you are welcome to give different predictions over the course of the next month. I intend to post a final prediction on Nov. 2/3 and may even post a weekly prediction, depending on the level of participation.

 

[Nebaghead]

I would like to move to North Carolina, Northern Virginia, or maybe even Pennsylvania around Gettysburg. I love the mountains in North Carolina. I am also kind of a civil war nut, and I would love to go around to all the different battlefields. Honestly, I am sick of living on the Gulf Coast with the heat, humidity, and hurricanes. Let's pack all our stuff and go SBTB!

Humidity isn’t much better in NC. I used to hate training at Camp Lejune.

 

[CoolBrees]

Just ditch the south. Break the cycle, it is time for the smart and educated to leave the south to its own demise.

Here in Oregon, there are no Trump signs here. Anywhere. I don’t know a single person voting for him. He is openly mocked like the loser idiot he is. I can’t go 10 yards without seeing a BLM.

Good jobs. Good schools. No sales tax. Oceans, mountains. We are actively trying to make an more perfect Union. Our weather is awesome too despite what others think

 

[cuddlemonkey]

Just ditch the south. Break the cycle, it is time for the smart and educated to leave the south to its own demise.

Here in Oregon, there are no Trump signs here. Anywhere. I don’t know a single person voting for him. He is openly mocked like the loser idiot he is. I can’t go 10 yards without seeing a BLM.

Good jobs. Good schools. No sales tax. Oceans, mountains. We are actively trying to make an more perfect Union. Our weather is awesome too despite what others think

What's the seismic activity like?

 

[CoolBrees]

We are in a seismic zone but I haven’t ever felt anything. We are in volcanic soils so very lush and green. I mostly grew up in Colorado- the mountains here are better. TONS of water- rivers, lakes and the Pacific Ocean. Seattle is 2.5 hours away and Vancouver, BC is just under 4.

I have loved everywhere in this country. Oregon is the best

 

[cuddlemonkey]

We are in a seismic zone but I haven’t ever felt anything. We are in volcanic soils so very lush and green. I mostly grew up in Colorado- the mountains here are better. TONS of water- rivers, lakes and the Pacific Ocean. Seattle is 2.5 hours away and Vancouver, BC is just under 4.

I have loved everywhere in this country. Oregon is the best

I'm sold.

 

[Ayo]

With the earth being microwaved, Toronto is positively temperate

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Reviewed my selections for next week. Very small change to my original. Biden wins Georgia, but loses NC is the biggest change for me..

 

[Saint by the Bay]

Just ditch the south. Break the cycle, it is time for the smart and educated to leave the south to its own demise.

Here in Oregon, there are no Trump signs here. Anywhere. I don’t know a single person voting for him. He is openly mocked like the loser idiot he is. I can’t go 10 yards without seeing a BLM.

Good jobs. Good schools. No sales tax. Oceans, mountains. We are actively trying to make an more perfect Union. Our weather is awesome too despite what others think

My grandson is in Battleground, Washington so Oregon is a strong consideration for me. Just being near him would make it worth it.

 

[CoolBrees]

Seriously. My best friend here moved with his wife and kids from Houston. They moved there from New Orleans after Katrina - his whole extended family is still in New Orleans- the Saints were how we became friends years ago.

He says the racism he faced he thought was just the way it was. He loves NO and it will always be home. But he will never go back. He wants different for his girls. We are actively looking for ways to encourage People of color to move here. Like incentives and housing while you get established. We acknowledge our racist past and are working to make amends.

We aren’t perfect by any stretch. But we are working towards a better future. With or without the rest of the US. That is the west coast as a whole really. But I lived in Los Angeles and loved it but it was too expensive and life was just hard. We looked at Seattle and the weather is a bit too inclimate. Portland is like the perfect mix of town like feel and city culture. Weather is amazing. It’s 65 and sunny right now. Leaves are changing. Sucks for the kids that trick or treating isn’t happening but we are doing our best.

 

[EmBeeFiveOhFour]

Portland sounds great. It really is a shame though that far right wing militia groups have decided for whatever reason that Portland must be Ground Zero for the Second American Civil War.

 

[CoolBrees]

Not really. It may come as no surprise but the majority of the right wing nuts are out east of the mountains. They are so outnumbered they only cause commotion in the right wing media unless the president is encouraging them.

We have supermajority in both houses and all state level offices are held by the left. And the majority is predicted to grow this election

 

[Ayo]

I don’t think Biden takes Florida or Ohio or GA or NC. I think the most likely shot for Biden is flipping PA and WI and MI from 2016. Maybe AZ.

 

[CoolBrees]

Those three are a given at this point. Michigan and Wisconsin are in the bag and Pennsylvania isn’t far behind.

The problem arises when Trump is potentially ahead in PA at the end of the day and tries to squash the counting. He will declare victory in the second quarter and expect the SCOTUS to call the game due to weather so to speak. It’s his only hope.

But @Ayo: Trump is losing Florida and Arizona and Georgia and more. In Nate Silver I trust.

 

[cuddlemonkey]

Those three are a given at this point. Michigan and Wisconsin are in the bag and Pennsylvania isn’t far behind.

The problem arises when Trump is potentially ahead in PA at the end of the day and tries to squash the counting. He will declare victory in the second quarter and expect the SCOTUS to call the game due to weather so to speak. It’s his only hope.

But @Ayo: Trump is losing Florida and Arizona and Georgia and more. In Nate Silver I trust.

From your fingers to non-existent God's ears...

 

[Ayo]

But @Ayo: Trump is losing Florida and Arizona and Georgia and more. In Nate Silver I trust.

I hear you. And I've been refreshing 538 like mad.

But I just don't see it...or, rather, can't bring myself to believe it.

 

[Taurus]

Not really. It may come as no surprise but the majority of the right wing nuts are out east of the mountains. They are so outnumbered they only cause commotion in the right wing media unless the president is encouraging them.

We have supermajority in both houses and all state level offices are held by the left. And the majority is predicted to grow this election

You'll find a few out west in the Coast Range, too. We passed a bunch of Trump signs on the way to Scappoose this morning. Some in Oregon, some along the road from Amboy to Battle Ground.

That said, the kind of in-your-face confrontation you hear about in other parts of the country doesn't happen here. Even the racists are too well-mannered.

 

[CoolBrees]

I too have a hard time believing it.

But you know what I keep reminding myself?

2008.

I kept thinking there is no way that Barack will win. No way. they will pull something off and stop it. Polls show him winning big? Don’t believe it. Can’t happen. They’ll steal it like 2000. No we can’t win.

All I can say now is “Yes We Can!!”

 

[UriUT]

I hear you. And I've been refreshing 538 like mad.

But I just don't see it...or, rather, can't bring myself to believe it.

Here's a logical explanation on why 2020 is different than 2016.

Why Joe Biden is Going to Win

A loss would be the greatest general election upset in American history, sorry Harry Truman

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