Does Trump ever do any jail time? (7 Viewers)

[Optimus Prime]

Everything I've seen and heard says that the split second Donald Trump is no longer president there will be flood of charges waiting for him

And if he resigns and Pence pardons him there are a ton of state charges as an understudy waiting in the wings if the fed charges can't perform

What do you think the likelihood of there being a jail sentence?

In every movie and TV show I've ever seen, in every political thriller I've ever read about a criminal and corrupt president there is ALWAYS some version of;

"We can't do that to the country",

"A trial would tear the country apart",

"For the nation to heal we need to move on" etc.

Would life imitate art?

Even with the charges, even with the proof the charges are true will the powers that be decide, "we can't do that to the country"?

 

[superchuck500]

And here is DOJ’s response to Trump’s dog shirt motion.

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.618763/gov.uscourts.flsd.618763.48.0.pdf

A few thoughts here:

1. The narrative shows just how patient the government was with Trump and his team - and for those who say "why didn't they just ask??", they did ask four times. And were lied to about the material that remained in Trump's possession. The narrative makes clear that not only were documents not returned, they were kept at Mar-a-Lago in a manner that evidences intent to keep them from further investigation (i.e. obstruction). I think there will be charges based on this alone, beginning with the false certification signed by Trump's "Custodian of Records" believed to be attorney Christina Bobb. Those charges would likely result in her explaining why she made that false certification (either on her own volition because she knew Trump wanted to keep the material, or because Trump instructed her to do it).

2. As noted on this thread, the Presidential Records Act makes clear that the US government owns presidential records - and they are to be archived under NARA procedures. I think Trump always fundamentally disagreed with this very clear rule of law. It is most important here because it means that Trump has no basis to claim ownership or a legal right to possess the documents, notwithstanding their classified nature.

3. The handling of the Executive Privilege is well done. It's easy to fall into the thinking that a former president now private citizen cannot assert EP, but that's not settled law (as the DC Cir. noted in the J6 Committee subpoena case). But DOJ hammers Trump here on the basis that the Supreme Court ruled in the Nixon v. GSA case that EP doesn't apply within the Executive Branch. In other words, a president cannot assert Executive Privilege to keep material out of DOJ/FBI's hands. And the Court well-noted that the privilege is supposed to operate in favor of the government and the republic's interests in functioning of government - not to the benefit of personal interests of the president.

4. The handling of the Special Master request points out that (a) it isn't warranted under the law on special masters and should be considered extraordinary relief, and (b) as a practical matter, the master would have to have a Top Secret/SCI clearance and really only has authority to review for attorney-client privilege material, and no other basis. Trump hasn't really asserted any specific attorney-client interest so it's not appropriate to appoint a master, which is extraordinary relief, for such a narrow purpose.


I think that Clown Team Trump is wholly unprepared to cobble a reasonable response to this. He apparently has hired the former Florida Solicitor General to assist but I don't see any reason to expect higher quality in the response, mostly because Trump's legal positions are garbage.

 

[superchuck500]

Another point I wanted to make - DOJ also states several times that at no point during the timeline that led to the execution the search warrant on August 6 did Trump or any Trump representative assert that Trump had declassified the classified material in his possession. In fact, when some of the materials were returned, they were boxed and taped in a manner that reflected the Trump's team's acknowledgment that the material was sensitive.

And this leads to the series of errors here that are problems for Trump - and that he's adding to on a daily basis. By refusing to recognize the validity of the NARA / DOJ requests and trying to keep documents without going through a formal request process (and adhering to the result) is problem #1. Then he compounded that problem by attempting to hide documents, obstructing the investigation, problem #2. And now by making numerous public statements and choosing a course of challenging the DOJ/FBI action publicly, and demanding that sealed material be made public, Trump has not only made admissions, but he has substantially damaged himself in the process, problems 3 and 4.

The guy continues to suffer from terrible judgment motivated by his own narcissism. This has always been his biggest problem and it remains a mystery to me why it isn't obvious to everyone that he's a massive liability for any endeavor, much less the President of the United States.

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

Its simple. His supporters just blindly believe him no matter what. When he says the FBI planted them, its fact.
When he says he declassified them after and he had authority, then its fact.
When he says he the right to have them, then its fact.
No amount of proof or laws will sway them in any way. They take him at his word because its above all.

 

[SFIDC3]

Its simple. His supporters just blindly believe him no matter what. When he says the FBI planted them, its fact.
When he says he declassified them after and he had authority, then its fact.
When he says he the right to have them, then its fact.
No amount of proof or laws will sway them in any way. They take him at his word because its above all.

Who puts the cult in the cultish?

 

[MT15]

This guy is a former R lawyer I have followed for years on Twitter. Note: I don’t mean he worked in government, just that he is conservative by nature and used to vote R before Trump.

 

[MT15]

My own personal opinion is that - barring something crazy - Trump will be charged and brought to trial in federal court over this. It’s important for the rule of law we say we live by. Whether he is incarcerated is an open question. I’m willing for the DOJ to get creative in what they ask for at sentencing.

 

[superchuck500]

This guy is a former R lawyer I have followed for years on Twitter. Note: I don’t mean he worked in government, just that he is conservative by nature and used to vote R before Trump.

I have seen credible speculation that even though the DOJ election rule doesn't specifically apply in this case (Trump is not a candidate in a 2022 election), Garland would likely defer to the rationale of avoiding political interference and wait until after Election Day to file indictments.

I think they still want more about specific intent, and who was calling the shots on exactly what documents were kept, how they were kept, and what (false) representations were made about them. I think the false certification from Bobb is a weak link and they could ostensibly go ahead and press her, perhaps even with an indictment. She clearly made a false sworn statement to federal investigators.

 

[MT15]

I heard on someone say on TV that DOJ expects to complete their investigation by Sept 30, chuck. Can’t remember who said it though.

 

[superchuck500]

I heard on someone say on TV that DOJ expects to complete their investigation by Sept 30, chuck. Can’t remember who said it though.

Perhaps but completing the investigation and filing charges are two separate things.

Also, I can't imagine that DOJ would ever put a firm date like that on it. Even if they did, it's purely discretionary.

 

[MT15]

Lol

 

[superchuck500]

Lol

The length to which the Trump support, many of them elected federal representatives, are willing to go to stupidly misinterpret or deliberately mischaracterize this thing is still shocking to me.

The photo thing is sooooooo stupid. The FBI team included a photo-documentarian, they always do. There are probably hundreds of photos. The DOJ team used this one photo (Attachment F) for one purpose: to give photo representation of the assertion that the documents were clearly and conspicuously marked. That's the only purpose that photo serves.

And it is redacted, you can see where white squares redact information that someone could get from enlarging the photo. And the only reason why it is public is because Trump insisted on unsealing this matter.

The takes I'm seeing from Trumpland are just idiotic.

 

[MT15]

I think they also wanted to show intent to conceal the presence of the files by showing they found them among Trump’s personal effects.

 

[superchuck500]

I think they also wanted to show intent to conceal the presence of the files by showing they found them among Trump’s personal effects.

Yeah, one may infer that but what I’m saying is that the filing only cites the exhibit for that one purpose - that they were conspicuously marked.

 

[SFIDC3]

The length to which the Trump support, many of them elected federal representatives, are willing to go to stupidly misinterpret or deliberately mischaracterize this thing is still shocking to me.

The photo thing is sooooooo stupid. The FBI team included a photo-documentarian, they always do. There are probably hundreds of photos. The DOJ team used this one photo (Attachment F) for one purpose: to give photo representation of the assertion that the documents were clearly and conspicuously marked. That's the only purpose that photo serves.

And it is redacted, you can see where white squares redact information that someone could get from enlarging the photo. And the only reason why it is public is because Trump insisted on unsealing this matter.

The takes I'm seeing from Trumpland are just idiotic.

I think, in the end, I like what I’m seeing….it reeks of desperation….I sure hope the sentencing fits the crime….man it would be sweet to see his orange arse in an orange jumpsuit!!!!

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

I'd love to see him do jail time, but we know it isn't gonna happen. He may be found guily and may end up a felon, but the worse that would happen to him is house arrest.

 

[efil4]

I have seen credible speculation that even though the DOJ election rule doesn't specifically apply in this case (Trump is not a candidate in a 2022 election), Garland would likely defer to the rationale of avoiding political interference and wait until after Election Day to file indictments.

I think they still want more about specific intent, and who was calling the shots on exactly what documents were kept, how they were kept, and what (false) representations were made about them. I think the false certification from Bobb is a weak link and they could ostensibly go ahead and press her, perhaps even with an indictment. She clearly made a false sworn statement to federal investigators.

would that "unseat" the attorney-client privilege? Making any communications with Trump specific to this investigation now accessible?

 

[superchuck500]

would that "unseat" the attorney-client privilege? Making any communications with Trump specific to this investigation now accessible?

Communication between an attorney and client is not privileged where it relates to committing a crime or fraud, or covering up a crime or fraud. It's appropriately called the "crime/fraud exception".

But that doesn't mean that "any communications" specific to this investigation are not privileged. It would have to be communication that is allegedly committing or covering up crime. For example, discussions about defensive strategy might not be subject to the exception.

Smart people would immediately realize that they need to wall off Christina Bobb from the legal team because she is now a target of the investigation. But these aren't smart people.

 

[superchuck500]

Now Trump lawyer Alina Habba is a potential witness in the case against Trump (and should discontinue her representation - but again, these aren’t smart people).