All things political. Coronavirus Edition. (16 Viewers)

[Maxp]

I fear we are really going to be in a bad place due to the obvious cuts to the federal agencies that deal with infectious disease, but also the negative effect the Affordable Care act has had on non urban hospitals. Our front line defenses are ineffectual and our ability to treat the populous is probably at an all time low. Factor in the cost of healthcare and I can see our system crashing. What do you think about the politics of this virus?

 

[Heathen]

For some uplifting news out of California

Gov Newsome plans 3 meals a day free of charge to seniors

Gov. Newsom's Plan Pays Restaurants to Deliver 3 Meals Daily to Seniors

The program seeks to help California's 1.7 million at-risk seniors and economically support local businesses and workers during the Covid-19 crisis.

www.newsweek.com

 

[CoolBrees]

Jim-

That is some seriously selective math you are using.
After making and using statistical models for over 20 years, let me help you out -

You start with the population of your entire metro area and then extrapolate the mortality rate of positive cases. Your first statistical error was using the wrong variable. You are measuring the death rate of the uninfected as a function of the infected -which I am sure was not your intent.

Next, your math assumes everyone who is currently ill will survive. In other words, How many have recovered? The ratio between the two will begin to paint the picture for you.

I hope this helps and I wasn’t trying to be a jerk, really. I see a lot of really smart people doing math correctly but using the wrong variables or formulas. On the EE board people are trying to extrapolate all kinds of stuff. Twitter is full of it. This is the biggest problem I see in all of the metadata coming down the pike. No attempt variable identification or isolation. Like at all. I am getting the freaking hives reading all of the statistical evidence from everyone- even doctors- who don’t understand how to properly model. And they can cause real harm and unnecessary panic by posting wrong statistical models when you have a PhD or MD next to your name.

I have been tracking modeling the global mortality rate of cases with outcome for the last six weeks - with only the last four being utilized. I have posted it a couple of times on the thread on ER. My 4 week run is up on Sunday and then I can try to see if this information can assist in predicting the timeline for move back down to the mean. I have 1 million discrete data points now and the data collection is at the exact time of day, 7am, from the same source of information, Reuter’s global tracker. I have 1 equation, feeding four analyses, and a will use an confidence rate of 80%, as there are too much background noise to try for 95%. My point is, I have done this for this long and I have no idea yet if all of this was completely worthless. I haven’t finished the study. I have already made two pretty dumb bias errors by reporting early results and what I thought they could mean. It is easy to want to share and try to help.

Anyway I didn’t mean to get on a soapbox. I just think that sometimes in our efforts to help and understand all of this we can get out of our lane a little and muddy things up; but with the best of intentions

 

[Humperdoo]

For some uplifting news out of California

Gov Newsome plans 3 meals a day free of charge to seniors

Gov. Newsom's Plan Pays Restaurants to Deliver 3 Meals Daily to Seniors

The program seeks to help California's 1.7 million at-risk seniors and economically support local businesses and workers during the Covid-19 crisis.

www.newsweek.com

Not usually a fan of Newsome but I do like this.

 

[dtc]

Hi dtc,

I strongly disagree with that assertion but respect your opinion. I hope you and yours are well.

I'm glad to hear it, but that first week you were on here your posts were a whinefest about moderators picking on you and how everyone else was an idiot. I remember because it was so out of character for you that it was shocking. And, thank you. We are all fine if not a little bored.

This damn virus is bringing out the worst in people and we have to be aware of it.
It's stressful and sucks, but it will pass as long as we are patient and quit letting the idiots grab all the attention.

 

[dtc]

I am not sure what the mindset of people will be. So perhaps you are correct. I am sure there will be many people who do not spend money like they used to do regardless of how much opens up or not
But it seems like you are now arguing that things should be or will be shut down just to avoid people getting the disease.
I thought the idea was that things would be shut down to buy us some time so hospitals would not be overrun. At this point it seems like some degree of opening back up seems prudent given that hospitals are laying off people for lack of activity, unless the argument is that we should stay locked down until it is certain that no one wil lget the virus.

Hospitals are laying off people because they're not doing elective procedures, but as we get a better understanding and testing in place that should all end. It won't go back to the same, but it will change and hopefully they can go back to work. Of course, not having done that might have ended up with us having the worst case scenario so a month long paid vacation for many seems like a reasonable trade.

 

[Humperdoo]

I'm glad to hear it, but that first week you were on here your posts were a whinefest about moderators picking on you and how everyone else was an idiot. I remember because it was so out of character for you that it was shocking. And, thank you. We are all fine if not a little bored.

This damn virus is bringing out the worst in people and we have to be aware of it.
It's stressful and sucks, but it will pass as long as we are patient and quit letting the idiots grab all the attention.

Glad you’re all well. My apologies if I came across that way, it’s truly not my nature, as you alluded to.

 

[JimEverett]

Jim-

That is some seriously selective math you are using.
After making and using statistical models for over 20 years, let me help you out -

You start with the population of your entire metro area and then extrapolate the mortality rate of positive cases. Your first statistical error was using the wrong variable. You are measuring the death rate of the uninfected as a function of the infected -which I am sure was not your intent.

Next, your math assumes everyone who is currently ill will survive. In other words, How many have recovered? The ratio between the two will begin to paint the picture for you.

I hope this helps and I wasn’t trying to be a jerk, really. I see a lot of really smart people doing math correctly but using the wrong variables or formulas. On the EE board people are trying to extrapolate all kinds of stuff. Twitter is full of it. This is the biggest problem I see in all of the metadata coming down the pike. No attempt variable identification or isolation. Like at all. I am getting the freaking hives reading all of the statistical evidence from everyone- even doctors- who don’t understand how to properly model. And they can cause real harm and unnecessary panic by posting wrong statistical models when you have a PhD or MD next to your name.

I have been tracking modeling the global mortality rate of cases with outcome for the last six weeks - with only the last four being utilized. I have posted it a couple of times on the thread on ER. My 4 week run is up on Sunday and then I can try to see if this information can assist in predicting the timeline for move back down to the mean. I have 1 million discrete data points now and the data collection is at the exact time of day, 7am, from the same source of information, Reuter’s global tracker. I have 1 equation, feeding four analyses, and a will use an confidence rate of 80%, as there are too much background noise to try for 95%. My point is, I have done this for this long and I have no idea yet if all of this was completely worthless. I haven’t finished the study. I have already made two pretty dumb bias errors by reporting early results and what I thought they could mean. It is easy to want to share and try to help.

Anyway I didn’t mean to get on a soapbox. I just think that sometimes in our efforts to help and understand all of this we can get out of our lane a little and muddy things up; but with the best of intentions

My intent was not to find a death rate for the virus. It was to show that the impact in the area is slight in terms of infections and deaths.
Not to say that I even did THAT right.

 

[dtc]

My intent was not to find a death rate for the virus. It was to show that the impact in the area is slight in terms of infections and deaths.
Not to say that I even did THAT right.

Many of us have been very lucky so far that the virus hasn't impacted our area. Were we not have done what we did it's quite likely that there would be little towns and cities all over that would be overrun and not like NYC with the financial whereabouts and political clout to endure.

I am working to keep myself aware of that so I don't begin to delude myself into believing this isn't real. And, it's becoming more and more obvious that there are a large number of mostly right-wingers in this country who will not believe anything unless it fits with their herd-think.

 

[JimEverett]

Many of us have been very lucky so far that the virus hasn't impacted our area. Were we not have done what we did it's quite likely that there would be little towns and cities all over that would be overrun and not like NYC with the financial whereabouts and political clout to endure.

I am working to keep myself aware of that so I don't begin to delude myself into believing this isn't real. And, it's becoming more and more obvious that there are a large number of mostly right-wingers in this country who will not believe anything unless it fits with their herd-think.

I am not sure there is anyone who does not think the virus is real. I think there are disagreements about the purpose of what we are doing. Why should an area where hospitals are largely empty, there are adequate medical supplies, and the curve is flattened continue with stringent stay-at-home orders?
Perhaps the problem is in framing it as either-or: You are either for opening up or you are for stringent lockdown? I know a lot of right-wingers and I don't think any of them are for returning to "normal" immediately. And maybe I am misunderstanding the opposing idea as wanting to continue with stay-at-home until the threat of contracting the disease is nil?

 

[Maxp]

Where DTC and I live there are plenty of people who think this is an Obama/Clinton conspiracy to take control because they can't handle Trump winning the election. There are large groups of people who refuse to believe any data that doesn't conform to their conspiracy theories.

 

[Zombiewoof]

For some uplifting news out of California

Gov Newsome plans 3 meals a day free of charge to seniors

Sounds great! I couldn't afford to live there, but at least I'd get three squares a day. Wait!! It would probably be loaded with stuff like kale, tofu and quinoa. Nevermind.

 

[cuddlemonkey]

Sounds great! I couldn't afford to live there, but at least I'd get three squares a day. Wait!! It would probably be loaded with stuff like kale, tofu and quinoa. Nevermind.

I had kale and quinoa once. Now I'm a full blown progressive lefty. Let me be a warning to you all.

 

[MT15]

My intent was not to find a death rate for the virus. It was to show that the impact in the area is slight in terms of infections and deaths.
Not to say that I even did THAT right.

Yes, the impact is slight, until it isn’t. One county away from us had an extremely low infection rate about 7-10 days ago, they now have the highest per capita infection rate in the state. This virus is a monster.

 

[N.O.Bronco]

Yes, the impact is slight, until it isn’t. One county away from us had an extremely low infection rate about 7-10 days ago, they now have the highest per capita infection rate in the state. This virus is a monster.

And if you cant adequately test and trace you are just flying blind.

In terms of the virus being a monster, I think the emerging evidence toward it triggering strokes in younger victims, blood clotting issues, and the evidence of reinfection and regaining critical symptoms of people that have it is very alarming.

 

[brandon]

Yeah, that might be a cool argument if the models did not take mitigation into account. They did both - with and without. The numbers were exaggerated even on the models with mitigation.

The simple answer is that mitigation was more effective than we expected. That’s a good thing. The reason you know that things are looking up? Well, you’re looking at revised models. So, the models were wrong in the beginning, but they’re right now?

Also, you’re acting like this thing is over. Trump said not too long ago that if we ended up with around 100k dead we would be doing a good job.

We’re at nearly 60k dead right now and most of the country is at or nearing the peak. Guess what?

The curve is not a cliff. We still have the whole downside of the curve to go, even without any more spikes. If the peak is the halfway point, then we’re still on track for 100k+ dead when this is all over.

 

[Heathen]

Sounds great! I couldn't afford to live there, but at least I'd get three squares a day. Wait!! It would probably be loaded with stuff like kale, tofu and quinoa. Nevermind.

Yeah it said 'nutritious' but also restaurant food so idk how each meal will look.

 

[JimEverett]

Where DTC and I live there are plenty of people who think this is an Obama/Clinton conspiracy to take control because they can't handle Trump winning the election. There are large groups of people who refuse to believe any data that doesn't conform to their conspiracy theories.

I am sure. I am also sure there are plenty of weird thoughts/conspiracies across the political spectrum - probably ore so from right-wingers, but I don;t think that is really important.

I imagine most Democrats/liberals look at Georgia's plan of opening up and do not like it. But do you/they (I am not trying to assume your political views Max) mean they are opposed to Georgia or a state like Georgia opening up in any way whatsoever? Is the position - penalty-enforced stay-at-home orders until there is a cure? Until there are no new cases for a month? What criteria?

I don't know the details of what is happening elsewhere, so I am only going by my area - it seems more than reasonable, given the capacity of our hospitals, the number of people officially diagnosed, the number of deaths, the number of people being tested and the testing capability, to go ahead and begin opening up in stages. And having an uptick in cases would not strike me as a failure of the policy. A situation where out hospitals are overwhelmed would be a failure - which is why I think an opening in stages is appropriate.

 

[Beach Friends]

The simple answer is that mitigation was more effective than we expected. That’s a good thing. The reason you know that things are looking up? Well, you’re looking at revised models. So, the models were wrong in the beginning, but they’re right now?

Also, you’re acting like this thing is over. Trump said not too long ago that if we ended up with around 100k dead we would be doing a good job.

We’re at nearly 60k dead right now and most of the country is at or nearing the peak. Guess what?

The curve is not a cliff. We still have the whole downside of the curve to go, even without any more spikes. If the peak is the halfway point, then we’re still on track for 100k+ dead when this is all over.

I am acting like this is over?

No, that was the strawman argument one of your friends tried to construct. My opinion is just the opposite - this virus is going to be here and we have to learn to live with it.

This conversation started because someone blew a fuse because we were providing ventilators to nations in need. No analysis to show that this is a legitimate problem, just screaming at the sky and demanding "Trump supporters" defend that action.

As I said previously, we may well become a leader in supplying ventilators around the world. Sounds like that is good for us and the nations that are importing them.