All things political. Coronavirus Edition. (13 Viewers)

[Maxp]

I fear we are really going to be in a bad place due to the obvious cuts to the federal agencies that deal with infectious disease, but also the negative effect the Affordable Care act has had on non urban hospitals. Our front line defenses are ineffectual and our ability to treat the populous is probably at an all time low. Factor in the cost of healthcare and I can see our system crashing. What do you think about the politics of this virus?

 

[N.O.Bronco]

The simple answer is that mitigation was more effective than we expected. That’s a good thing. The reason you know that things are looking up? Well, you’re looking at revised models. So, the models were wrong in the beginning, but they’re right now?

Also, you’re acting like this thing is over. Trump said not too long ago that if we ended up with around 100k dead we would be doing a good job.

We’re at nearly 60k dead right now and most of the country is at or nearing the peak. Guess what?

The curve is not a cliff. We still have the whole downside of the curve to go, even without any more spikes. If the peak is the halfway point, then we’re still on track for 100k+ dead when this is all over.

I have a distant aunt I am regretfully less close to than I wish at this moment.

She is in a nursing home due to late stage dementia and currently has all the symptoms of Covid. And, sadly, is likely going to die....She will be counted as a pneumonia death.

Why? becuase she does not qualify in her area to get a Covid test and so she is not currently counted in the official statistics.

The truth is the infection rate is likely greater than the numbers suggest AND the death rate is likely much greater than it currently is.

Models were initially built on certain assumptions about a lack of social distancing, models today are built on the assumption of maintaining a level of social distancing, like before, if reality veers a different path the models are no longer applicable. They have to be updated. I doubt most of those models assumed Georgia would defy all rationality and swing the doors open, that Florida a day after it’s highest death rate reporte would reopen beaches.

The models are a good guide, but if you arent utilizing them properly, just like any model in business or science, you are going to draw poor conclusions.

 

[JimEverett]

Yes, the impact is slight, until it isn’t. One county away from us had an extremely low infection rate about 7-10 days ago, they now have the highest per capita infection rate in the state. This virus is a monster.

I get that, but is the idea that we should have stay-at-home-orders until there are no cases? Obviously opening up will create some degree of cases, or at least it seems that way.

Do you disagree with California opening up beaches on the same day the state saw its most deaths from the virus?

 

[N.O.Bronco]

I get that, but is the idea that we should have stay-at-home-orders until there are no cases? Obviously opening up will create some degree of cases, or at least it seems that way.

Do you disagree with California opening up beaches on the same day the state saw its most deaths from the virus?

No one has said this, quit arguing straw men

 

[Beach Friends]

Good to see these patriots sending a message to that idiot Democratic Governor.

 

[MT15]

I get that, but is the idea that we should have stay-at-home-orders until there are no cases? Obviously opening up will create some degree of cases, or at least it seems that way.

Do you disagree with California opening up beaches on the same day the state saw its most deaths from the virus?

I don‘t think anyone thinks that is realistic, I haven’t said that’s what I think is realistic, anyway. I just wanted to illustrate how quickly an area can go from not very affected to “hair on fire” affected. My hospital’s CEO talked to one of his colleagues from an area who had such an outbreak in order to ask him what surprised him about the virus. He said that the speed of the patient surge was truly surprising. They thought the patient surge would ramp up over the course of a few days, he said the surge happened in literally hours.

As for California, what you realize is that deaths are a lagging indicator. It’s not a current indicator of the state of infection. So obviously you don’t look at deaths in order to make a decision about what you need to do currently.

Another thing that’s being heavily emphasized that isn’t so clear cut is the idea that only elderly and sick people are dying. As we learn more, this is looking less and less valid. Theres a pretty good piece in The Atlantic that summarizes some of what we are learning.

 

[Dragon]

Good to see these patriots sending a message to that idiot Democratic Governor.

And when they each return home to their neighborhoods and start spreading the virus in a few days, would you still consider them patriots and the govenor an idiot?

When does exposing others to dangers become patriotic?

 

[bdb13]

My 88 year old grandfather passed away last night at an assisted living facility in Fairhope, AL. He wasn't tested for coronavirus but had a sudden onset of respiratory issues in the past few days. I don't think we'll ever know and it could just be a coincidence that it happened now, but I gotta think there's a decent chance that he had it.

 

[Maxp]

I'm sorry to read of your grandfather's passing.

 

[Beach Friends]

And when they each return home to their neighborhoods and start spreading the virus in a few days, would you still consider them patriots and the govenor an idiot?

When does exposing others to dangers become patriotic?

Do you not think that requiring people to give up their jobs or lose their businesses is exposing them to dangers?

If you want to really talk about exposing people to dangers then you should be talking about that Governor's legal mandate that requires nursing homes to accept patients who have tested positive with the Wuhan.

 

[Dragon]

Do you not think that requiring people to give up their jobs or lose their businesses is exposing them to dangers?

If you want to really talk about exposing people to dangers then you should be talking about that Governor's legal mandate that requires nursing homes to accept patients who have tested positive with the Wuhan.

Those people were on the BEACH for fun!! How about adressing the situation you were commenting on!

You called them patriots for going to the BEACH - this is not about giving up their jobs or losing their businesses.

They put their own enjoyment ( relaxing day on the beach) over the safety of their fellow citizents.

And why do you keep calling the virus by the wrong name. - The name is Covid-19 - not the china virus, or the communist virus or the Wuhan virus


And just to get your facts straight: This is what is the mandate says for CA

"That a nursing home "can be expected" to receive residents who test positive for the virus if it is able to follow the infection control guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. #

So it is a matter of freeing up critical hospital beds but ONLY if the nursing home is able to provide the necessary resosurces to handle this properly

 

[Beach Friends]

Those people were on the BEACH for fun!! How about adressing the situation you were commenting on!

You called them patriots for going to the BEACH - this is not about giving up their jobs or losing their businesses.

They put their own enjoyment ( relaxing day on the beach) over the safety of their fellow citizents.

And why do you keep calling the virus by the wrong name. - The name is Covid-19 - not the china virus, or the communist virus or the Wuhan virus

Read carefully what I wrote. I didn't say that their activities would have a direct impact on the economy.

I said their activity would send a message to authoritarians that American patriots are reaching the end of what they will tolerate. And then I gave an example of overreach by the government. One that will cost lives BTW.

I just saw an 80ish lady out walking her dog. It's the first time I have seen her out. She told me she is tired of living in fear - that she's not going to rush into a bad situation, but she is going to live until she dies. And, she said we need to reopen because it's not fair to the young people.

The CCP virus is not going away soon - we have to learn to live with it. Furthermore, unless we stand together and put pressure on the Communist regime in China to change their filthy habits we are going to just end up facing a different virus. It's only a matter of time. I am not about to buy off on CCP control of my language. I am going to continue to urge other Americans to take that same approach.

 

[N.O.Bronco]

patients who have tested positive with the Wuhan.

So we just allowing this bigoted bullshirt huh?

 

[Dragon]

Read carefully what I wrote. I didn't say that their activities would have a direct impact on the economy.

I said their activity would send a message to authoritarians that American patriots are reaching the end of what they will tolerate. And then I gave an example of overreach by the government. One that will cost lives BTW.

I just saw an 80ish lady out walking her dog. It's the first time I have seen her out. She told me she is tired of living in fear - that she's not going to rush into a bad situation, but she is going to live until she dies. And, she said we need to reopen because it's not fair to the young people.

The CCP virus is not going away soon - we have to learn to live with it. Furthermore, unless we stand together and put pressure on the Communist regime in China to change their filthy habits we are going to just end up facing a different virus. It's only a matter of time. I am not about to buy off on CCP control of my language. I am going to continue to urge other Americans to take that same approach.

And I asked you if you would still consider them patriots if their actions started a new hotspot for the virus causing many more people to lose their life?

And with regards to the old lady you mentioned. - she may no rush into a bad situation, but what could happen was that one of those people on the beach was her neighbor and even though she is carefull, she could be one of those who paid the price for THEIR "patriotism"

 

[dtc]

I am not sure there is anyone who does not think the virus is real. I think there are disagreements about the purpose of what we are doing. Why should an area where hospitals are largely empty, there are adequate medical supplies, and the curve is flattened continue with stringent stay-at-home orders?
Perhaps the problem is in framing it as either-or: You are either for opening up or you are for stringent lockdown? I know a lot of right-wingers and I don't think any of them are for returning to "normal" immediately. And maybe I am misunderstanding the opposing idea as wanting to continue with stay-at-home until the threat of contracting the disease is nil?

See, here's the deal. We've never been on lockdown. There is no stay at home order. I'm out and about everyday. Others are, as well. No, hair salons and tattoo parlors aren't open and restaurants are closed, but the world is not closed.

I don't think we should have a strict quarantine and I do believe the highest at risk should remain more vigilant, but the spread of this thing is more involved than just the old and infirm being safe. It has to do with others being safe and intelligent.

What we see here is people who believe this is some sort of conspiracy to take their guns and make them turn gay or something. It's stupid. And, at every opportunity there's some idiot out refusing to comply and when he does that, it ruins all the efforts of others.

And, frankly, there are too many of us who are too stupid to deal with. It's unfortunate, but it's true. and those folks are going to kill a whole lot of us that are being reasonable in our efforts to practice social distancing.

All it takes is one sick person to infect a school and yet in my area there is an outcry to get daycares open so people can go back to work and schools because the kids are bored. We can't even test half a percent of the people yet because there aren't tent hospitals in mall parking lots these people think it's a fake news event as they try to sort out whether Trump was suggesting we inject bleach or being sarcastic.

 

[Beach Friends]

And I asked you if you would still consider them patriots if their actions started a new hotspot for the virus causing many more people to lose their life?

And with regards to the old lady you mentioned. - she may no rush into a bad situation, but what could happen was that one of those people on the beach was her neighbor and even though she is carefull, she could be one of those who paid the price for THEIR "patriotism"

Different countries have different cultures. You can't expect Americans to behave like Danes.

 

[N.O.Bronco]

All credit goes to Taurus who posted this from the other site:

Y'know, everybody seems to take it as a given that another Great Depression will kill people at a high rate and there's some intersection point where quarantining (and the resulting economic effects) becomes more deadly than the virus.

Only, what if that isn't so?

Life and death during the Great Depression

Recent events highlight the importance of examining the impact of economic downturns on population health. The Great Depression of the 1930s was the most important economic downturn in the U.S. in the twentieth century. We used historical life expectancy and mortality data to examine...

www.pnas.org

I’ll supplement with this:

Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combinati

papers.ssrn.com

And a more approachable article about the study:

Cities That Went All In on Social Distancing in 1918 Emerged Stronger for It (Published 2020)

They had lower mortality rates from the influenza pandemic. But their economies also appeared to fare better.

www.nytimes.com

I post this because honestly I am tired of hearing the same poorly sourced conversation taking place with no resolution.

There comes a point where if one side has evidence supporting them and the other side does not, and the side without can’t actually produce any evidence to support their position, the L is officially given and the people continuing to perpetuate arguments they can’t support need to simply either be ignored or called out until they do.

It feels like 80% of this thread has devolved into a small handful of posters making assertions about how shutting down any longer is worse for human life and the economy than staying socially distanced until the necessary infrastructure is in place and case loads have sufficiently dropped. Going so far as to now trollishly call those disobeying guidelines patriots for a cause they can’t actually empirically support. But the evidence presented so far has been basically zilch. While others citing stuff like I linked at the top continue to go in circles with people that so far, can’t really support their underlying position. So it’s just this absurd merry-go-round of a few posters restating a position they can’t seem to support to people that are trying to reason with them through evidence-based argument but so far those few people are simply willing to take their speculation as stronger evidence than actual evidence....And I don’t know how you win that fight?

 

[Dragon]

Different countries have different cultures. You can't expect Americans to behave like Danes.

Why talk about Denmark - It has nothing to do with the topic we are talking about. You did not answer my simple question - Would you still consider those people patriots if theír actions caused another hotspot and lifes lost?

 

[JimEverett]

See, here's the deal. We've never been on lockdown. There is no stay at home order. I'm out and about everyday. Others are, as well. No, hair salons and tattoo parlors aren't open and restaurants are closed, but the world is not closed.

I don't think we should have a strict quarantine and I do believe the highest at risk should remain more vigilant, but the spread of this thing is more involved than just the old and infirm being safe. It has to do with others being safe and intelligent.

What we see here is people who believe this is some sort of conspiracy to take their guns and make them turn gay or something. It's stupid. And, at every opportunity there's some idiot out refusing to comply and when he does that, it ruins all the efforts of others.

And, frankly, there are too many of us who are too stupid to deal with. It's unfortunate, but it's true. and those folks are going to kill a whole lot of us that are being reasonable in our efforts to practice social distancing.

All it takes is one sick person to infect a school and yet in my area there is an outcry to get daycares open so people can go back to work and schools because the kids are bored. We can't even test half a percent of the people yet because there aren't tent hospitals in mall parking lots these people think it's a fake news event as they try to sort out whether Trump was suggesting we inject bleach or being sarcastic.

Who on here believes this is some sort of conspiracy to take guns or make them turn gay? I have not seen anyone say that.
And idiots not complying have nothing to do with state orders, right? hence the non-compliance part.

I still do not understand what the disagreement is about. Do phased in "re-openings" seem reasonable or not? If not, then what is meant by "I don't think we should have a strict quarantine"?