2024 GOP Presidential Race (1 Viewer)

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    SteveSBrickNJ

    SteveSBrickNJ

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    Many of Trump's endorsed candidates did not do well on Nov. 8th.
    *
    Gov. Ron DeSantis DID do well.
    He won convincingly.
    Yet in this OP's opinion, Donald Trump is an egomaniac who is seemingly incapable of putting "Party over Self"
    Trump has ZERO chance of being elected our next president.
    In my opinion, if Trump would just shut up and go away (fat chance of that)...but "if" Trump did that, Gov. Ron DeSantis would have a CHANCE to be a formidable candidate for President in 2024.
    Here is an interesting article on this topic...
    www.scotsman.com

    Donald Trump warns Ron DeSantis against 2024 presidential bid as Republican rising star wins big

    Donald Trump has warned Florida's Governor Ron DeSantis against running for president in 2024, saying doing so would harm the Republican Party.
    www.scotsman.com www.scotsman.com
    *
    *
    What do any of you think re. Trump vs DeSantis?
     
    For what it’s worth

    This doesn’t make sense to me
    ========================

    Either former president Donald Trump’s standing in early 2024 polls is inflated, or we are headed for a sizable realignment in how non-White voters cast their ballots.


    Multiple polls in recent weeks have shown Trump performing historically well among Black and Hispanic voters in head-to-head matchups with President Biden, helping put him neck-and-neck with Biden in a way he rarely was during their 2020 matchup.


    Across five high-quality polls that have broken out non-White voters in the past month, Trump is averaging 20 percent of Black voters and 42 percent of Hispanic voters.

    Both numbers — and especially that for Black voters — could set modern-day records for a Republican in a presidential election. Trump in 2020 took just 8 percent of Black voters and 36 percent of Hispanic voters, according to the Pew Research Center’s validated voter survey.

    Exit polls pegged those figures at 12 percent of Black voters and 32 percent of Hispanic voters.
(The validated voter surveys involve conducting a huge poll of American adults and then getting a more accurate picture than the exit polls by verifying whether respondents actually voted, using official records.)


    No Republican presidential candidate in the past 50 years has approached receiving 20 percent of the Black vote. Since Republicans took 18 percent in 1972 and 16 percent in 1976, according to exit polls, they haven’t taken more than 12 percent of Black voters. Their average share over the past 50 years is 9 percent — about half of where Trump currently sits in the polls.

    Hispanic voters have trended toward the GOP in recent elections, but the party’s current high-water marks over the past half-century are 37 percent in 1984 and a disputed 44 percent in 2004. (Other estimates placed President George W. Bush’s actual share of the Hispanic vote that year at about 40 percent, which would be shy of where Trump currently is in the polls.)


    So how plausible is this?


    The first thing to note is that individual polls tend to feature small sample sizes of Black and Hispanic voters, which is why we have combined multiple surveys. Trump actually takes as much as 25 percent of Black voters in a recent Quinnipiac University poll and 47 percent of Hispanic voters in a recent CBS News poll — numbers that would appear implausible even if those voters have trended toward him significantly.


    Another point is that despite the GOP’s claims about Trump’s ability to appeal to Black voters and especially Black men, this wouldn’t appear to be strictly about Trump. Fox News’s pollsters last week tested seven 2024 Republicans against Biden, and just about every GOP candidate was near 20 percent…….

     
    Optimus Prime said:
    For what it’s worth

    This doesn’t make sense to me
    ========================

    Either former president Donald Trump’s standing in early 2024 polls is inflated, or we are headed for a sizable realignment in how non-White voters cast their ballots.


    Multiple polls in recent weeks have shown Trump performing historically well among Black and Hispanic voters in head-to-head matchups with President Biden, helping put him neck-and-neck with Biden in a way he rarely was during their 2020 matchup.


    Across five high-quality polls that have broken out non-White voters in the past month, Trump is averaging 20 percent of Black voters and 42 percent of Hispanic voters.

    Both numbers — and especially that for Black voters — could set modern-day records for a Republican in a presidential election. Trump in 2020 took just 8 percent of Black voters and 36 percent of Hispanic voters, according to the Pew Research Center’s validated voter survey.

    Exit polls pegged those figures at 12 percent of Black voters and 32 percent of Hispanic voters.
(The validated voter surveys involve conducting a huge poll of American adults and then getting a more accurate picture than the exit polls by verifying whether respondents actually voted, using official records.)


    No Republican presidential candidate in the past 50 years has approached receiving 20 percent of the Black vote. Since Republicans took 18 percent in 1972 and 16 percent in 1976, according to exit polls, they haven’t taken more than 12 percent of Black voters. Their average share over the past 50 years is 9 percent — about half of where Trump currently sits in the polls.

    Hispanic voters have trended toward the GOP in recent elections, but the party’s current high-water marks over the past half-century are 37 percent in 1984 and a disputed 44 percent in 2004. (Other estimates placed President George W. Bush’s actual share of the Hispanic vote that year at about 40 percent, which would be shy of where Trump currently is in the polls.)


    So how plausible is this?


    The first thing to note is that individual polls tend to feature small sample sizes of Black and Hispanic voters, which is why we have combined multiple surveys. Trump actually takes as much as 25 percent of Black voters in a recent Quinnipiac University poll and 47 percent of Hispanic voters in a recent CBS News poll — numbers that would appear implausible even if those voters have trended toward him significantly.


    Another point is that despite the GOP’s claims about Trump’s ability to appeal to Black voters and especially Black men, this wouldn’t appear to be strictly about Trump. Fox News’s pollsters last week tested seven 2024 Republicans against Biden, and just about every GOP candidate was near 20 percent…….

    Click to expand...
    This doesn't surprise me tbh. There's always been a conservative/religious segment of minority populations. It no doubt fluctuates, and it's part of the overall political calculus. And yeah, it's less about Trump and more about broader trends in people trending conservative in some segments of the population.

    Getting out the vote is going to be critical because history shows that Republicans generally do a better job of mobilizing their base than the Democrats have. Beating Trump is absolutely not a given.
     
    Optimus Prime said:
    For what it’s worth

    This doesn’t make sense to me
    ========================

    Either former president Donald Trump’s standing in early 2024 polls is inflated, or we are headed for a sizable realignment in how non-White voters cast their ballots.


    Multiple polls in recent weeks have shown Trump performing historically well among Black and Hispanic voters in head-to-head matchups with President Biden, helping put him neck-and-neck with Biden in a way he rarely was during their 2020 matchup.


    Across five high-quality polls that have broken out non-White voters in the past month, Trump is averaging 20 percent of Black voters and 42 percent of Hispanic voters.

    Both numbers — and especially that for Black voters — could set modern-day records for a Republican in a presidential election. Trump in 2020 took just 8 percent of Black voters and 36 percent of Hispanic voters, according to the Pew Research Center’s validated voter survey.

    Exit polls pegged those figures at 12 percent of Black voters and 32 percent of Hispanic voters.
(The validated voter surveys involve conducting a huge poll of American adults and then getting a more accurate picture than the exit polls by verifying whether respondents actually voted, using official records.)


    No Republican presidential candidate in the past 50 years has approached receiving 20 percent of the Black vote. Since Republicans took 18 percent in 1972 and 16 percent in 1976, according to exit polls, they haven’t taken more than 12 percent of Black voters. Their average share over the past 50 years is 9 percent — about half of where Trump currently sits in the polls.

    Hispanic voters have trended toward the GOP in recent elections, but the party’s current high-water marks over the past half-century are 37 percent in 1984 and a disputed 44 percent in 2004. (Other estimates placed President George W. Bush’s actual share of the Hispanic vote that year at about 40 percent, which would be shy of where Trump currently is in the polls.)


    So how plausible is this?


    The first thing to note is that individual polls tend to feature small sample sizes of Black and Hispanic voters, which is why we have combined multiple surveys. Trump actually takes as much as 25 percent of Black voters in a recent Quinnipiac University poll and 47 percent of Hispanic voters in a recent CBS News poll — numbers that would appear implausible even if those voters have trended toward him significantly.


    Another point is that despite the GOP’s claims about Trump’s ability to appeal to Black voters and especially Black men, this wouldn’t appear to be strictly about Trump. Fox News’s pollsters last week tested seven 2024 Republicans against Biden, and just about every GOP candidate was near 20 percent…….

    Click to expand...

    There's no way. They need to increase their sample size. Regardless, polls are fundamentally broken, the only people that are bothering to respond to them are activist/extremist. Most people avoid responding to them at all cost. Also, Democrats are outperforming Republicans and the polls in just about every election the last 3 years by something like 11 points.
     
    coldseat said:
    There's no way. They need to increase their sample size. Regardless, polls are fundamentally broken, the only people that are bothering to respond to them are activist/extremist. Most people avoid responding to them at all cost. Also, Democrats are outperforming Republicans and the polls in just about every election the last 3 years by something like 11 points.
    Click to expand...
    Yes, I see the actual results in the midterms and all the special elections since then and the polls are utterly failing to register those results. Polls are pretty worthless at this point in the election cycle anyway.
     
    MT15 said:
    Yes, I see the actual results in the midterms and all the special elections since then and the polls are utterly failing to register those results. Polls are pretty worthless at this point in the election cycle anyway.
    Click to expand...
    I'll agree polls are worthless, at least until after the primaries are done and if/when the general election debates take place. Too much can happen between now and then.
     
    MT15 said:
    This is the GOP front runner, this country needs help….

    Click to expand...

    And yet……
    ==========
    Wearing a shirt festooned with countless images of Donald Trump, Leverne Martin was looking cheerful for a man who had set off from Poplar Bluff, Missouri, at 9pm and driven through the night, arriving in Dubuque, Iowa, at 5.30am. When did he intend to sleep?

    “As soon as President Trump is back in the White House,” the 55-year-old handyman replied without missing a beat. “If we don’t get him back in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, where he belongs, we’re in a mess, man. That’s why I’m voting for President Trump. That’s why I drove nine hours.”

    On a grey, rainy day, Martin was near the head of a long and winding queue outside a cavernous conference centre overlooking the Mississippi River. Like so many fans in so many towns and cities over nearly a decade, an overwhelmingly white crowd had come to cheer on Trump, elected US president in 2016, beaten by Joe Biden in 2020 and clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2024.

    What is striking about the traveling circus is not what has changed over that time but what has stayed the same. Hawkers still move up and down the line selling Trump calendars, keychains and other regalia with captions such as “Gun rights matter”, “Fight for Trump”, “Jesus is my savior, Trump is my president”, “No more bullshirt”, “Trumpinator: I’ll be back” and “Fork Biden and fork you for voting for him”.

    Trump, 77, still puts on a show unlike anyone else in politics. Twentieth-century music from Abba, Celine Dion, Elvis Presley and Whitney Houston booms from loudspeakers.

    Video clips of allies such as the broadcaster Tucker Carlson and Hungarian autocrat Viktor Orbán and foes such as Biden and the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, elicit boos and jeers.

    The former reality TV star still enters to thunderous cheers and chants of “USA! USA!”. People wave signs bearing his name and snap photos on their phones; one stood on a chair wearing an “I love Trump” T-shirt.

    Trump still plays the parts of demagogue, divider and standup comic, serving red meat to supporters who revel in shared grievance and the thrill of transgression.

    The slogan then is the slogan now: “Make America great again” (Maga), emblazoned on a blue backdrop to the stage where Trump spoke for 80 minutes.

    But for his supporters that phrase has taken on added meaning: Maga is now imbued with nostalgia for the Trump presidency when, as they perceive it, borders were strong and fuel prices were low.…….

    www.theguardian.com

    ‘I like him even better now’: Trump’s true believers keep the faith

    Millions of Democrats and independents view Trump’s time in office as a disaster but for supporters it is his biggest asset
    www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
     
    Optimus Prime said:
    And yet……
    ==========
    Wearing a shirt festooned with countless images of Donald Trump, Leverne Martin was looking cheerful for a man who had set off from Poplar Bluff, Missouri, at 9pm and driven through the night, arriving in Dubuque, Iowa, at 5.30am. When did he intend to sleep?

    “As soon as President Trump is back in the White House,” the 55-year-old handyman replied without missing a beat. “If we don’t get him back in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, where he belongs, we’re in a mess, man. That’s why I’m voting for President Trump. That’s why I drove nine hours.”

    On a grey, rainy day, Martin was near the head of a long and winding queue outside a cavernous conference centre overlooking the Mississippi River. Like so many fans in so many towns and cities over nearly a decade, an overwhelmingly white crowd had come to cheer on Trump, elected US president in 2016, beaten by Joe Biden in 2020 and clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2024.

    What is striking about the traveling circus is not what has changed over that time but what has stayed the same. Hawkers still move up and down the line selling Trump calendars, keychains and other regalia with captions such as “Gun rights matter”, “Fight for Trump”, “Jesus is my savior, Trump is my president”, “No more bullshirt”, “Trumpinator: I’ll be back” and “Fork Biden and fork you for voting for him”.

    Trump, 77, still puts on a show unlike anyone else in politics. Twentieth-century music from Abba, Celine Dion, Elvis Presley and Whitney Houston booms from loudspeakers.

    Video clips of allies such as the broadcaster Tucker Carlson and Hungarian autocrat Viktor Orbán and foes such as Biden and the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, elicit boos and jeers.

    The former reality TV star still enters to thunderous cheers and chants of “USA! USA!”. People wave signs bearing his name and snap photos on their phones; one stood on a chair wearing an “I love Trump” T-shirt.

    Trump still plays the parts of demagogue, divider and standup comic, serving red meat to supporters who revel in shared grievance and the thrill of transgression.

    The slogan then is the slogan now: “Make America great again” (Maga), emblazoned on a blue backdrop to the stage where Trump spoke for 80 minutes.

    But for his supporters that phrase has taken on added meaning: Maga is now imbued with nostalgia for the Trump presidency when, as they perceive it, borders were strong and fuel prices were low.…….

    www.theguardian.com

    ‘I like him even better now’: Trump’s true believers keep the faith

    Millions of Democrats and independents view Trump’s time in office as a disaster but for supporters it is his biggest asset
    www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
    Click to expand...
    I have seen it said that a lot of rally attendees are not necessarily local - that people follow Trump rallies like the fan base of the Grateful Dead used to follow their concerts. I would like to know for sure how many people at a Trump rally traveled to see it, and how far, and how many rallies have they attended? Otherwise, we could be giving more weight to these people than are warranted….
     
    SFIDC3 said:
    Far from a rap fan, but I've always liked Snoop Dog....he's not wrong here.....
    Click to expand...
    As a fan of humanity, I am a giant Snoop fan.

    I also listen to his music almost every day.

    He made the movie Starsky and Hitch as Huggy Bear.

    His house in Long Beach is still in his old neighborhood.

    He owns a cannabis company with Martha Stewart.

    Snoop is a national treasure.
     
    This guy is totally bonkers. He uses the metaphor of a neighbor’s dog coming into your yard and biting your children and says you can shoot the dog. That it’s perfectly legal - but I don’t think you can take your gun and go into your neighbor‘s yard and shoot his dog. And we are leaving off all the other problematic issues when you liken human beings to animals and say the law is the same whether we are talking about an animal or a human. He’s nuts.

     
    Paul Ryan shares his thoughts...
    *
    www.yahoo.com

    Former Speaker Paul Ryan says Republicans will lose if Donald Trump is nominee

    Former House Speaker Paul Ryan said Tuesday that Republicans will lose the presidential election if Donald Trump is the nominee and that he expects hard-right followers of Trump to force a government shutdown within days. Ryan, who left office in 2019 and had a sometimes contentious...
    www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
     

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