Midterm projections. (7 Viewers)

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    SamAndreas

    SamAndreas

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    I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

    Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

    Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

    But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

    That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

    :)
     
    MT15 said:
    Steve, this may be in a restricted forum. I wasn’t allowed to follow the link. If it’s in the Conservative forum, only Conservatives are allowed there.
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    My Trump/DeSantis thread has been moved to the Main Community Board.
    *

    Can DeSantis overcome Trump?

    Many of Trump's endorsed candidates did not do well on Nov. 8th. * Gov. Ron DeSantis DID do well. He won convincingly. Yet in this OP's opinion, Donald Trump is an egomaniac who is seemingly incapable of putting "Party over Self" Trump has ZERO chance of being elected our next president. In my...
    madaboutpolitics.com madaboutpolitics.com
     
    MT15 said:
    House is very tight. One opinion:

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    The second tweet had too many seats. I think (hope) it is going to be 117- 118 Dems and then it was Boebert’s loss that held the House.

    I mean, that would be my wildest dreams for this election coming true. That would be one of the biggest arse kickings a minority has taken in a midterm in a long long time.
     
    CoolBrees said:
    The second tweet had too many seats. I think (hope) it is going to be 117- 118 Dems and then it was Boebert’s loss that held the House.

    I mean, that would be my wildest dreams for this election coming true. That would be one of the biggest arse kickings a minority has taken in a midterm in a long long time.
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    Honestly, with the headwinds Democrats were facing with inflation and all.. it's quite amazing that the Republicans did not do better and I have to say I'm a bit proud that the country's distaste for Trump(ism) proved to be palpable.
     
    It's pretty fun reading through these comments on Fox News. It seems that some self awareness is finally seeping through on the right wing.

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    www.foxnews.com

    Republicans pointing fingers after weak midterm results, direction of party in question: 'Something was off'

    The blame game has erupted in the Republican Party after a "red wave'" failed to materialize Tuesday, with some questioning the direction of party leadership.
    www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
     
    The difference in this election in the House will end up being how effectively Republicans where able to gerrymander at the state level. And how some courts stepped in to stop gerrymandering, but others didn't.

    For example, New York had to redraw its maps because its' SC ruled against Democrats, but Florida was able to keep its gerrymandered districts because its' SC wouldn't take up the case. Republicans came out +4 in New York and +3 or +4 in Florida because of gerrymandering. There are a few other examples as well, that all went Republicans way.
    Republicans will likely take over control of the House because of gerrymandering and not because of voters.
     
    coldseat said:
    The difference in this election in the House will end up being how effectively Republicans where able to gerrymander at the state level. And how some courts stepped in to stop gerrymandering, but others didn't.

    For example, New York had to redraw its maps because its' SC ruled against Democrats, but Florida was able to keep its gerrymandered districts because its' SC wouldn't take up the case. Republicans came out +4 in New York and +3 or +4 in Florida because of gerrymandering. There are a few other examples as well, that all went Republicans way.
    Republicans will likely take over control of the House because of gerrymandering and not because of voters.
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    OH was the worst. Their legislature ignored a court order. Just brazen disdain for law and order.
     
    Interesting that Republicans built their expectations and made campaign decisions based on polls that we all now know are useless.
     
    Last week, President Joe Biden delivered a speech in Washington that sought to frame the midterm election as a battle over the fate of democracy—and, implicitly, as a referendum on Donald Trump and Trumpism as a movement.

    The speech didn’t attract much attention, and where it did, critics tended to pan it as needlessly divisive, flailing by a sinking party, or, worst of all, superfluous: Biden seemed to be preaching to the choir and talking over the heads of a congregation more concerned about inflation, crime, abortion, and other urgent concerns.

    Not for the first time, Biden has both the last laugh and a better intuition about voters than his critics assume.

    The midterm-election results, which appear to have delivered Republicans only modest gains, show that although a sizable minority of Americans will never defect from Trump, an even larger group seems equally determined to stop Trumpism.

    The existence of this anti-MAGA coalition is essential to understanding not only this election, but also the 2024 race..........

     
    Taurus said:
    Interesting that Republicans built their expectations and made campaign decisions based on polls that we all now know are useless.
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    I think they felt safe making that assumption because recently when the polls have erred they've usually erred to their favor.
     
    I think that the Trump attitude that permeated the party has some culpability as well. They only surround themselves with yes-men, don’t want to hear anything but that they’re doing great.

    Also, in some cases it was possibly calculated. If they could convince the press to write about their wins then that might discourage some Dems from even bothering to vote.

    Also, just bad polling. They can’t reach the youth vote. They don’t know how to make people answer their phones anymore. They thought women didn’t care about abortion rights. All wrong.
     

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