Republicans moving ahead with Trump’s ‘big’ bill of tax breaks (3 Viewers)

[zztop]

Republicans moving ahead with Trump's 'big' bill of tax breaks and spending cuts amid tariff uproar

After a long wait, the Senate is launching action on President Donald Trump’s ”“big, beautiful bill” of tax breaks and spending cuts.

apnews.com

More than a month after House Republicans surprised Washington by advancing their framework for Trump’s $4.5 trillion in tax breaks and $2 trillion in spending cuts, Senate Republicans voted Thursday to start working on their version. The largely party-line vote, 52-48, sets the stage for a potential Senate all-nighter Friday spilling into the weekend.

 

[bird]

I found the article. The Dissent article is partly based on data from 2010-2014 and the claim about the patents came from a Bloomberg article from 2018 covering the period 2010-2015. That makes the data and the conclusions based on those data between 9-15 years old, and shows very little about the current technological progress in China.

https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/06/how-china-is-reinventing-the-future-of-global-manufacturing/#:~:text=Despite%20massive%20investment%2C%20China%20remains,aircraft%20has%20lagged%20behind%20expectations.

They are still having trouble. As the Dissent article noted they are prizing maintaining social stability over innovating their economy.

 

[SamAndreas]

Nothing lasts forever, not even things getting worse. Things will get better. I don't know when or how, but this won't continue forever.

I agree, I think it's even beneficial in the long run to be in the dumps for a day or two after something like this, but after getting it out it's time for a renewed optimism.

Folks, think of optimism at a time like this as an investment in the future.

 

[Lapaz]

What gives me hope is that congressional Republicans had to stop having town halls, because their votes showed up in force and railed against them making these very cuts. I don't think they will be able to fool Democratic and Independent voters and it looks like they aren't fooling a lot of Republican voters either.

The fact that some of the cuts don't go into effect until after the midterm could be turned to advantage. Candidates should find out what the bill cuts that's the most important to their voters and should doggedly hammer on one message alone going roughly like this, "these things that are the most important to you are about to be cut and the only way to keep them from being cut is to vote for me so I could do everything I can to reverse these cuts and fight to give you more of what's most important to you."

Another thing that gives me hope is that Musk now has a grudge against all things Trump and he's never dropped a grudge. If he turns on Trump's Republicans to hit Trump, then he will keep the Republicans from successfully duping the majority of voters.

Democrats will probably win the House by a wider margin in the midterms than they would’ve anyway. It won’t matter until they win the presidency, or win a veto-proof majority in the Senate. If they win both chambers, then there will be a standoff on the budget with Trump. I think the damage will not be fixable until 2029.

 

[SamAndreas]

2025 taxes will have to be filed no later than October of 2026. The vast majority of people are going to see first hand the tax relief is a lie. Tax relief doesn't usually mean as much to voters as the cost of living. I don't see anyway the cost of living doesn't start skyrocketing between now and Nov 2026. The Republicans won't be able to deceive the vast majority of Americans that they aren't worse off.


That's not actually in the bill from what I heard. If that's true, people will see for themselves before Nov 2026 that they got know tax relief on their social security benefits.

I think Trump and his Republicans are insanely delirious with hubris. They think they can just lie their way out of anything including this. I don't think they can and I think the more they lie to people about things that the people see with their own bank accounts aren't true, the more angry and motivated those people will be to vote against them.

I've already looked into it with Grok doing an estimation for me based on the bill after the whole bill was in its final form. I'm going to see about a thousand dollar income tax relief. However I'm in the upper middle of middle class.

The problem is the mainstay traditional voters will tend to see a sizable tax relief, while poor folks are getting the shaft. So come midterms voters will not feel things were so bad, they don't ever see poor people when they move about.

About folks not seeing poor folks, I drive what I think is a nice car, a Lexus which is 28 years old which has a big dent on the right side. The clear coat is peeling, and even a bit of paint. The car is in it's last two years. The point being years ago when the car looked nicer folks would look to see who was driving my car, me. Now when I drive around town they no longer look to see who's driving. I've become invisible to a lot of the folks around town.

When they see old, tattered, and poor they don't see past that old, tattered, and poor. That is something I don't think is just a factor of how the right side is, the left side tends to do it too.

When I say invisible I mean invisible. When I say my car is nice, it has run for me for about 20 years, beyond brakes, batteries and tires it's not needed new parts, has never broken down along the highway, it's nice car.

 

[Lapaz]

Greatest threat to what, exactly? Economic dominance? Global influence? Innovation?

If China is out-innovating the U.S. right now, that says more about the state of American policy and priorities than about China’s supposed threat. As I mentioned earlier, U.S. education and innovation have been stagnating. Biden gave it a shot of CPR with investments in renewable energy and tech, but many of those initiatives have since been gutted by Trump.

The current Trump administration has also made it significantly harder for working-class students to access higher education. That shrinks the future pool of entrepreneurs and innovators—the very people needed to compete globally. Blaming China might be politically convenient, but it ignores the internal decay of America’s ability to nurture talent and drive progress."

China is a threat on all three fronts. I also agree that the US is to blame for allowing it, but that doesn’t change the threat. Who is at fault for creating the problem is a different matter than what the threat is. If you walk into a den of lions, you’ve put yourself in danger, and people may have less sympathy, but in that moment, denying the lions are a threat is not going to help. What will help are tools to deal with the problem. The tools may help some people you don’t want to help (ie “tech bros”), but nonetheless they may be your best tools.

 

[Lapaz]

I've already looked into it with Grok doing an estimation for me based on the bill after the whole bill was in its final form. I'm going to see about a thousand dollar income tax relief. However I'm in the upper middle of middle class.

The problem is the mainstay traditional voters will tend to see a sizable tax relief, while poor folks are getting the shaft. So come midterms voters will not feel things were so bad, they don't ever see poor people when they move about.

About folks not seeing poor folks, I drive what I think is a nice car, a Lexus which is 28 years old which has a big dent on the right side. The clear coat is peeling, and even a bit of paint. The car is in it's last two years. The point being years ago when the car looked nicer folks would look to see who was driving my car, me. Now when I drive around town they no longer look to see who's driving. I've become invisible to a lot of the folks around town.

When they see old, tattered, and poor they don't see past that old, tattered, and poor. That is something I don't think is just a factor of how the right side is, the left side tends to do it too.

When I say invisible I mean invisible. When I say my car is nice, it has run for me for about 20 years, beyond brakes, batteries and tires it's not needed new parts, has never broken down along the highway, it's nice car.

I agree that since many will see small breaks, Republican politicians may skirt the wrath of the majority. It will take the multitude of wrongs to make them get their comupance.

 

[SamAndreas]

Democrats will probably win the House by a wider margin in the midterms than they would’ve anyway. It won’t matter until they win the presidency, or win a veto-proof majority in the Senate. If they win both chambers, then there will be a standoff on the budget with Trump. I think the damage will not be fixable until 2029.

If you look at it with blinders on, yes it does look that way. Take off the blinders and consider the outcome if an alternate path is used.

Basically the way of it is DJT will want something from congress, and to get he will have to give something in return. It worked last time after 2018, and if we have leadership as good as Nancy was we'll be able to do something within limits.

Remember last time we were able to COVID relief through, a lot of relief, more than I dreamed possible. Applying leverage works and if we hold both chambers we will have leverage.

It goes both ways, under Clinton they had that leverage, and they were able to make him sign the welfare reform act. He didn't want to sign it, but there was something else he wanted, so they were able to leverage him into signing it.

 

[zztop]

Calling it now.
The republicans have just handed the midterms and 2028 to the Dems.

Even if you are right, the damage done will be so severe that:

People will become too impatient that not enough is being done, or not enough being done fast enough

That will then blame the Democrats for not fixing things fast enough

And Republicans hammer democrats (basically shifting the blame for what they did onto them)

Which will then swing things back into the Republican's favor (win back the presidency etc)

Basically half the American people are forking stupid and get played over and over and never learn

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

I've already looked into it with Grok doing an estimation for me based on the bill after the whole bill was in its final form. I'm going to see about a thousand dollar income tax relief. However I'm in the upper middle of middle class.

The problem is the mainstay traditional voters will tend to see a sizable tax relief, while poor folks are getting the shaft. So come midterms voters will not feel things were so bad, they don't ever see poor people when they move about.

Most non-partisan assessments disagree with you and Grok. Very few people in the middle class or lower are expected to get any tax relief. Even if they do, that is traditionally not as important to voters as the cost of living. All indications are that the middle class and lower will be worse off financially by the Nov 2026 election.

 

[MT15]

Just saw this, echoing points made on here.

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

Even if you are right, the damage done will be so severe that:

People will become too impatient that not enough is being done, or not enough being done fast enough

That will then blame the Democrats for not fixing things fast enough

And Republicans hammer democrats (basically shifting the blame for what they did onto them)

Which will then swing things back into the Republican's favor (win back the presidency etc)

Basically half the American people are forking stupid and get played over and over and never learn

I don't think half of the American people are "stupid." I think that's probably closer to about 20%. I also don't think half of the American people are easily fooled. I think that's probably closer to about 30%.

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

Just saw this, echoing points made on here.

Clinton and Obama both improved the debt and peoples's financial situations, despite Republican dirty tricks. They both had decent approval ratings on the economy and both were reelected as a result of those approval ratings.

Before Trump, that playbook was used with a lot more finesse and subtlety. There is no finesse or subtlety with Trump and his Republicans. The dynamic have changed a lot and that will lead to a lot of changes in the final outcome. I don't think Trump and Republicans are going to fool the American public. I think there only chance is to intimidated and dominate the American public through force, and I don't think that will last very long or get them very far.

I think people are really underestimating how self-defeating and self-destructive absolute hubris is. Trump and his Republicans just arrived their in the past few weeks. I thought it would take them 2 years to get to this point. The faster you ascend, the faster you fall.

 

[SamAndreas]

Most non-partisan assessments disagree with you and Grok. Very few people in the middle class or lower are expected to get any tax relief. Even if they do, that is traditionally not as important to voters as the cost of living. All indications are that the middle class and lower will be worse off financially by the Nov 2026 election.

We didn't do an assessment, and we used the actual tax bill as our source to make that caulation. We were simulating an as if tax filing for the future. That isn't going to be posted, however we did do, and posted an almost like that assessment in a thread somewhere on this board during the that few days, you probably saw it, that one does not expose my actual tax situation for all to see.

No doubt, the lower middle class on down take the brunt of this head on. But not that many voters are lower middle class on down. Pity that. And in the cases where they do vote, they get motivated to vote for someone like Trump, double pity that.

 

[SamAndreas]

Here you will find mockups of the IRS tax forms which are affected by the big ugly bill, using the actual bill as the source material. At the link I asked Grok to create these mockups. I've shown the work so you can see how I interact and work with Grok:

How to use AI

In creating this thread I intend to show all of you what I've discovered so far about using AI. The intention is not that I'm the expert sayings how it is.This thread is a discussion thread open to all to add their opinions and examples of about how to best use this new tool.I will explain...

madaboutpolitics.com

You can use these mockups to estimate your future tax burden.

 

[zztop]

I don't think half of the American people are "stupid." I think that's probably closer to about 20%. I also don't think half of the American people are easily fooled. I think that's probably closer to about 30%.

Half those that voted in the last election. And the one before that. And the one before that. Better?

 

[Saint Jack]

Clinton and Obama both improved the debt and peoples's financial situations, despite Republican dirty tricks. They both had decent approval ratings on the economy and both were reelected as a result of those approval ratings.

Before Trump, that playbook was used with a lot more finesse and subtlety. There is no finesse or subtlety with Trump and his Republicans. The dynamic have changed a lot and that will lead to a lot of changes in the final outcome. I don't think Trump and Republicans are going to fool the American public. I think there only chance is to intimidated and dominate the American public through force, and I don't think that will last very long or get them very far.

I think people are really underestimating how self-defeating and self-destructive absolute hubris is. Trump and his Republicans just arrived their in the past few weeks. I thought it would take them 2 years to get to this point. The faster you ascend, the faster you fall.

I really don’t see how the republicans are successful long term post Trump.
It’s a cult of personality. JD won’t have this type of support in 28.

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

We didn't do an assessment, and we used the actual tax bill as our source to make that caulation.

There is no we. There's only you using a factually unreliable computer program as if it a factual authority. If you are verifying every single thing it's telling you, why waste time with taking the extra step of using it?

There won't be any real "tax relief" for anyone not in the lower upper income brackets and higher. Even if there is, any "tax relief" the middle class gets will be a net loss due to the increased costs of living that are about to start climbing. Keep in mind the core issue is whether or not the majority of voters will be happy enough with Trump and his Republicans to keep the Republicans in charge of both the House and Senate.

A lot of the immigrants that are being abducted or scared into hiding provide really cheap labor for construction, agriculture, warehouse, and tourism. No one is going to replace the labor they provide, so we are going to start having shortages in new construction and food, delays in distribution and shipping, and the quality of food and hospitality services are going to go down. Almost forget about childcare, that's going to get even worse than it already is. The lack of labor that these good people provide is going to wreak havoc on the entire economy.

Trump can say all he wants that he won't go after farm workers, but he's flip flopped so much that the immigrant farm workers don't trust him and a large percentage of them aren't showing up to harvest crops. High prices for food trumps token tax relief every day for the majority of voters. The fall is when food shortages and price increases will start hitting the grocery stores and tables at home. I don't see Trump and his ICE gestapo slowing down their assault on the immigrants that keep the American economy going, so it's going to be really bad by the time November 2026 rolls around.

The Nazi's took advantage of existing rampant poverty to rise to power. They did not wreck a vital economy. Trump and his Republicans are taking a wrecking ball to our economy by targeting the people who make up a foundational work force. I don't see this ending well for Trump and his Republicans.

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

I really don’t see how the republicans are successful long term post Trump.
It’s a cult of personality. JD won’t have this type of support in 28.

Trump's Republicans will not be able to pivot to someone else and carry on. There will be infighting and fracturing that will marginalize them. I expect Trumps children to turn on each other to try to assume his position when he dies.

Here's some relevant and informative historical facts:

Benito Mussolini was about 39 when he took dictatorial control of Italy.
Adolph Hitler was about 43 years old when he and the Nazi's took dictatorial control of Germany.
Vladimir Lenin was bout 47 years old when he rose to power in the Soviet Union.
Joseph Stalin was about 52 when her rose to dictatorial power in the Soviet Union.
Vladimir Putin was about 48 when he rose to power in Russia.
Mao Zedong was about 56 when he rose to power in Russia.

Donald J Trump was 70 years old for is first inauguration and 78 years old for this second term of his. Time is on our side and not Trump's and his Republicans. He developed his cult following too late in life to be able to do as much damage as all of the people listed above.

I think Trump and his Republicans are in a panicked race against time which means they are moving too fast for the majority of people to normalize and to desensitize to what's happening. I don't think they have the patience or the discipline to wait until after the midterms to start kicking people off of food and healthcare assistance programs. They are in MOAR, MOAR, MOAR, NOW, NOW, NOW mode and they have the hubris to think they have the majority of Americans fooled. I don't believe they do.