The trade and economy mega-thread (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[JimEverett]

Assuming we are clawing our way back - and that is a big assumption given the likelihood of another shutdown of some sorts, at least in some states - the big test is still going to be next year and maybe even 2022 when we see states and locals wrestle with huge budget problems.

 

[wardorican]

Assuming we are clawing our way back - and that is a big assumption given the likelihood of another shutdown of some sorts, at least in some states - the big test is still going to be next year and maybe even 2022 when we see states and locals wrestle with huge budget problems.

Which is why the House pressing for funds for States isn't a stupid idea.

Major shortfalls will be coming.

 

[DaveXA]

Which is why the House pressing for funds for States isn't a stupid idea.

Major shortfalls will be coming.

Yeah, I'm curious to see what tax receipts look like when everyone files their 2020 tax returns.

 

[wardorican]

Yeah, I'm curious to see what tax receipts look like when everyone files their 2020 tax returns.

My taxes are going to be so darn complicated this year....

 

[wardorican]

So, I was wondering how the whole China Trade war / mini deal worked out for us.

I think, not good for us is the early consensus for 2019 and 2020. Small farmers were and are being crushed, large monopolies are doing ok.

Trump's massive farmer bailout failed to make up for the 'self-inflicted' trade damage

The U.S.-China trade war caused deep damage to many American farmers and their livelihoods.

www.yahoo.com

“The trade policy has been a disaster,” said Glauber, the former USDA chief economist. “From almost the first day of him being in office, he pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and then spent a lot of the energy that he put into bilateral agreements with Japan and bilateral agreement and renegotiations of NAFTA. The big changes for agriculture were to put a lot of the provisions and TPP into those agreements.”

On top of those issues, Glauber added, “you have the trade wars which caused some very large disruptions in markets, not just in soybeans but in a variety of other markets. Not just with China, but also the EU and Canada had tariffs against our products. Our markets suffered because of that.”

Farm bankruptcies in the U.S. increased by 20% in 2019, according to U.S. Courts data, reaching an 8-year high after 595 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed by family farms.

“The biggest problem we have going forwards towards the future is the disruption that the president did when his trade policies really weakened our voice and our trust with our trading partners around the world,” Gary Wertish, a Minnesota-based farmer, told Yahoo Finance. “The ‘America First’ — it sounds good but you do have to work together with other countries to have a mutual relationship, cause they’re going to want to be able to trade stuff back to us.”

 

[porculator]

So, I was wondering how the whole China Trade war / mini deal worked out for us.

I think, not good for us is the early consensus for 2019 and 2020. Small farmers were and are being crushed, large monopolies are doing ok.

Trump's massive farmer bailout failed to make up for the 'self-inflicted' trade damage

The U.S.-China trade war caused deep damage to many American farmers and their livelihoods.

www.yahoo.com

Because of Covid I don't think we'll ever get meaningful analysis on whether the trade war would have eventually worked.

By their nature, tariffs will always have a negative effect initially. You're putting an artificial obstacle between buyer and an international vendor in the hopes that it a new vendor will emerge domestically and keep the money here. But that takes time- a lot more time than anyone here has the patience for, especially once Covid hit.

 

[Maxp]

Whatever small farms the trade war didn't get, covid, and a raise in minimum wage will. They really got a walloping.

 

[wardorican]

OMG, Look at my 401(k)!!!!

Oh, it's still going up?

 

[wardorican]

Maybe this is the best place for it.

Look at the gap between U-5 and U-6 unemployment. I think it's getting closer to inline with typical, but the spike definitely grew more. Which makes since so many people were furloughed or part timed, at least for a while.

 

[Maxp]

Another battle lost in the trade war. If only we had a US merchant fleet...oh wait we let the Chinese do that too.

Shipping carriers rejected tons of U.S. agricultural exports, opting to send empty containers to China

Shipping carriers rejected U.S. agricultural exports in October and November, instead sending containers to be filled with more profitable Chinese exports.

www.cnbc.com

Shipping carriers rejected U.S. agricultural export containers worth hundreds of millions of dollars during October and November, instead sending empty containers to China to be filled with more profitable Chinese exports, a CNBC investigation found

 

[superchuck500]

There have quietly been strong economic reports over the last two weeks. Jobless claims are down. Wages are up. CPI/Inflation appears to have peaked.

 

[zztop]

bumping this because I saw today that:

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by 0.75%, the largest move it has made in a single meeting since 1994

 

[Eeyore]

Mitch McConnell acknowledged the supreme economic skills of the average American today.

Mitch McConnell says the labor shortage will be solved when people run out of stimulus money because Americans are 'flush for the moment'

Lack of childcare and well-paid jobs might be driving the labor shortage. Mitch McConnell thinks March 2021 stimulus checks are to blame.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[DaveXA]

Mitch McConnell acknowledged the supreme economic skills of the average American today.

Mitch McConnell says the labor shortage will be solved when people run out of stimulus money because Americans are 'flush for the moment'

Lack of childcare and well-paid jobs might be driving the labor shortage. Mitch McConnell thinks March 2021 stimulus checks are to blame.

www.businessinsider.com

Smh, the whole stimulus blaming is stupid. But not at all surprising.

 

[wardorican]

Mitch McConnell acknowledged the supreme economic skills of the average American today.

Mitch McConnell says the labor shortage will be solved when people run out of stimulus money because Americans are 'flush for the moment'

Lack of childcare and well-paid jobs might be driving the labor shortage. Mitch McConnell thinks March 2021 stimulus checks are to blame.

www.businessinsider.com

What an Idiot. I mean, you think you can live off of a few thousand dollars for 2 years?

Maybe when I was in college with a full ride...

 

[J-DONK]

What an Idiot. I mean, you think you can live off of a few thousand dollars for 2 years?

Maybe when I was in college with a full ride...

It's one banana, Michael. How much could it cost, ten dollars?

 

[The moose]

Mitch McConnell acknowledged the supreme economic skills of the average American today.

Mitch McConnell says the labor shortage will be solved when people run out of stimulus money because Americans are 'flush for the moment'

Lack of childcare and well-paid jobs might be driving the labor shortage. Mitch McConnell thinks March 2021 stimulus checks are to blame.

www.businessinsider.com

Well he got that a bit wrong. It is the businesses stimulus that has us in a pickle. Airlines forced early retirements to make that money last now flying sucks. They handed out business checks like mad to sectors that did not need them like real estate agents they got millions and they were never in a down market.

You could even go back further to the tax cuts that pumped up the market with stock buy backs rather than investing in employees and a rainy day.

but the real problem is politicians have no idea what things cost. I couldn't make 2k last years even if I slept in a tent and ate pork n beans.

 

[wardorican]

Well he got that a bit wrong. It is the businesses stimulus that has us in a pickle. Airlines forced early retirements to make that money last now flying sucks. They handed out business checks like mad to sectors that did not need them like real estate agents they got millions and they were never in a down market.

You could even go back further to the tax cuts that pumped up the market with stock buy backs rather than investing in employees and a rainy day.

but the real problem is politicians have no idea what things cost. I couldn't make 2k last years even if I slept in a tent and ate pork n beans.

I agree.

I'll just push back and say some know. They're not all millionaires.

AOC is the easy one. Mark Kelly only got rich the last few years (prior to getting elected) from speaking fees and authored some books. But up until 2011 (when he retired), I'd say he was pretty middle class.

I'm sure there are others.