US/Israel and Iran- (4 Viewers)

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efil4

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Thought we should start thread here - over weekend, US carried out strikes against Houthi elements in Yemen in retaliation for their actions in Red Sea.



Houthi leader issued this statement- no US ships in Red Sea


Houthis then attempted to strike US Carrier group

This morning Trump took to Truth Social:



So any missile/shot fired from Houthi elements in Yemen will be considered coming from Iran. Obviously this is wrought with problems, but we know Houthis will respond and continue attacks.

So then what does this mean for Iran? Lots to unpack, but seems to me that the NO WAR POTUS is hell bent on getting into yet ANOTHER conflict in the ME. He is backing himself into a corner with statements and we could find ourselves embroiled in ME conflict again.
 
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I saw Malcolm Nance discuss this on a podcast this morning. He referenced Trump using a TS post to promote Mark Levin's upcoming show, and then Levin on his show said we need to "get the uranium." And Marc Thiessen said basically the same thing.
 
We actually do learn from that. Also from Israel who has had good success taking out drones with their A model Apaches. The gun targeting has been good enough to shoot them down. D and E models should be superior.
Then I have a hard time understanding your original premise. In the the context of my comment of needlessly endangering our troops by placing them in a small area, I find it cruel to say we can use them to learn more about drone warfare. Using live humans as test subject is immoral. However, I don’t think you are saying that. I think you are trying to find a silver lining in what is this large pile of flaming poop of our own making. Though that is like burning our house down and finding a microwave unscathed and say, at least we can now find out why that microwave didn’t get burned down. We launched 8 multimillion dollar patriots and only one hit a 50k drone. Yes! Positive.

I mean, we can also send in our 10 billion dollar carriers to test their efficacy against drones and supersonic missiles too? Why though? The risk reward of even implying that there is a positive just doesn’t make sense. We have already lost servicemen. 2 500 million dollar radars. Billion dollars of equipment. Destabilized an entire region and halted 20 percent of our global energy commerce. Some countrries are now strapping in just to get by. Possible food scarcity as the economist that I linked earlier thinks could happen. All because fertilizer is a infungible resource which would be difficult to find alternatives once a good amount is now cut off. Now you tell us we had alternatives to learn about drone warfare?

I don’t think I have any particular insight more clever than the next person. You suggested Israel’s more advance technology and tactics. However, we clearly saw that the iron dome was overwhelmed by just cheap numbers of drones. Such that Israel wanted to invade Lebanon to stop the launches. We talk of Ukraine, but we see still have news of drones getting through. And they have the advantage of geography meaning the drones have to travel through their controlled territory. And yeah, they have said they tactically and cost efficiently shot down drones using jet fighters.

Now we re staring at mountainous terrain in Iran next to a narrow body of water on an island right next to them. Grabbing an island and then have our troops fire upon will escalate again. Like Israel’s urge to invade Lebanon, we will find that we have to control land on Iran’s coast to prevent more launches. And then rinse repeat until we control all of Iran? Except…we don’t have the troops. Nah….I don’t see positives.
 
This war is such a badly conceived idea that the realist can’t even condone this.


But the United States’ new war with Iran makes clear that Trump is not a realist. In fact, realism, when properly understood, reveals the profound dangers of the Trump administration’s careening approach to foreign policy. Unleashing regional war in the Middle East with neither a compelling justification nor a theory of how best to advance U.S. interests is profoundly at odds with the core tenets of realism. Indeed, with his war with Iran, Trump has permanently ceded his claim to represent a clear-eyed and pragmatic approach to U.S. foreign policy, opening new space for other political leaders to take up that mantle.
 

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