The trade and economy mega-thread (4 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[efil4]

So gonna be a long day. US GDP growth pegged at 3% and MAGA will be out in force to explain that the growth is due to tariffs and that tariffs will not affect GDP.

When the real answer is that both market and industry are ignoring any proclamation by admin because they continually lie and delay with implementing

Economy under Trump is looking up!
*

‘Not just a cyclical recovery, but a boom.’ BofA says a ‘key tail risk’ is that the Trump economy will actually start to take off

“Today a confluence of factors argue that the key tail risk that may not be priced in is not just a cyclical recovery, but a boom,” BofA Research analysts write.

www.yahoo.com

From the Miscellaneous Trump thread.

didnt take long at all.

and its going to amplify as day progresses.

 

[MT15]

Bird, that 1% figure agrees with what I have been reading. For real growth of the economy. It wouldn’t take much to nudge that into negative territory.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

I think nitpicking GDP numbers is not a great way to go. 3% GDP growth is good. Last quarter was a contraction of 0.5%, which was bad. Just let the numbers and trend lines speak for themselves.

From my amateur reading of the numbers, last quarter was depressed because of imports trying to get ahead of tarriffs, and this quarter was pushed up because not as many imports were needed because of the splurge last quarter.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

FYI - I think overall it shows the economy is still doing fine. My read on where all the tariffs will land will be a drag on the economy but not catastrophic. It basically will be a combination of a sales tax and a hit on corporate profits (ie some will be absorbed by companies taking a hit to their bottom line and the rest will be passed on).

What people's perception of the economy will vary, and I'm not sure I can predict. Prices won't be coming down, and I'm not sure what wages will do -- we are going to have some labor shortages in some sections of the economy (farm workers, hotel, etc) and a small surplus in others (government workers). I doubt many NIH scientists will move to picking strawberries.

We're starting to get some clarity on tariffs, and we'll see it affect the broader economy now

 

[efil4]

I think nitpicking GDP numbers is not a great way to go. 3% GDP growth is good. Last quarter was a contraction of 0.5%, which was bad. Just let the numbers and trend lines speak for themselves.

From my amateur reading of the numbers, last quarter was depressed because of imports trying to get ahead of tarriffs, and this quarter was pushed up because not as many imports were needed because of the splurge last quarter.

yes "Front-loading" happened last quarter ( companies increased orders to beat the April 2 date )

But the main point of all this is that reading into GDP numbers as they stand, is not an accurate forecast because tariff/trade agreements remain unsigned. No one, not even the current Administration has a clue so therefore the market is operating as is, until the time comes when Admin says "thats it- 20% applied today going forward, no TACO"

Until then, the GDP you see is simply the market performance without tariff threats.

Case in point- Wall St is treading water today. On any other trading day, a upward revision of GDP would create a nice bump. Nope. Uncertainty looms, so market isnt going to do much on this news as it historically would.

 

[MT15]

Was just coming to post that the markets aren’t really reacting at all to that GDP number. Which sort of surprised me a bit.

 

[efil4]

like i said, not 4 short months ago, trump would spout off at the mouth, markets would "jump" ( up/down)

now? crickets. Because he is simply full of shirt.

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

This is what I read earlier about what's being overlooked. I bolded what I think are the key points.

"“Headline numbers are hiding the economy’s true performance, which is slowing as tariffs take a bite out of activity,” Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic wrote."​

​

"Private investment fell at a 15.6% annual pace, biggest drop since COVID-19 slammed the economy."​

​

"A category within the GDP data that measures the economy’s underlying strength weakened in the second quarter, expanding at a 1.2% annual pace, down from 1.9% from January through March and the weakest since the end of 2022. This category includes consumer spending and private investment but excludes volatile items like exports, inventories and government spending."​

Along with a strong second quarter rebound for the US economy, some red flags

The U.S. economy expanded at a surprising 3% annual pace from April through June, bouncing back at least temporarily from a first-quarter drop that reflected disruptions arising from President Donald Trump’s trade wars.

apnews.com

 

[efil4]

This is what I read earlier about what's being overlooked. I bolded what I think are the key points.

"“Headline numbers are hiding the economy’s true performance, which is slowing as tariffs take a bite out of activity,” Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic wrote."​

​

"Private investment fell at a 15.6% annual pace, biggest drop since COVID-19 slammed the economy."​

​

"A category within the GDP data that measures the economy’s underlying strength weakened in the second quarter, expanding at a 1.2% annual pace, down from 1.9% from January through March and the weakest since the end of 2022. This category includes consumer spending and private investment but excludes volatile items like exports, inventories and government spending."​

Along with a strong second quarter rebound for the US economy, some red flags

The U.S. economy expanded at a surprising 3% annual pace from April through June, bouncing back at least temporarily from a first-quarter drop that reflected disruptions arising from President Donald Trump’s trade wars.

apnews.com

its all under-reported purposefully.

You wont here JACK from admin about any of it. its all roses - because thats how they want it to be perceived. They are creating their own reality.
Damn what the math says. ( or facts or reality )

2 weeks ago the GOP/MAGA talking point was " we have the HOTTEST economy in the world" - they pumped this out at every turn- social media, interviews, pressers. for about a full week. From POTUS to Congressmen- using same line.

But they employ that tactic ACROSS THE BOARD with every single item- from economy to immigration to education.

Its 1984.

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

its all under-reported purposefully.

You wont here JACK from admin about any of it. its all roses - because thats how they want it to be perceived. They are creating their own reality.
Damn what the math says. ( or facts or reality )

But they employ that tactic ACROSS THE BOARD with every single item- from economy to immigration to education.

Its 1984.

I think it's a stupid and futile attempt at 1984. It's not common knowledge, but Orwell had people talking directly to each other all over the world through telescreens in an earlier draft. I think he cut it out, because it would directly undermine the ability of the government to control all messaging and information.

Even China and Russia can't control all information and messages, because they can't keep people from getting forbidden information and messages through the internet. They slow it down with intimidation and technology, but they can't stop it altogether.

 

[efil4]

I think it's a stupid and futile attempt at 1984. It's not common knowledge, but Orwell had people talking directly to each other all over the world through telescreens in an earlier draft. I think he cut it out, because it would directly undermine the ability of the government to control all messaging and information.

Even China and Russia can't control all information and messages, because they can't keep people from getting forbidden information and messages through the internet. They slow it down with intimidation and technology, but they can't stop it altogether.

its about amassing the "power" to pull this off.

Sure, the ENTIRE country wouldnt be on board, BUT you dont need 100%

just 51%

and if the majority of the 51% either aspire to have ( what the elites have ) or bring down the other remaining ppl to their level, by all means, do it.

Thats where we are right now. GOP is amassing/aligning the power to control as much as they possibly can. Especially the narrative. Thats the FIRST order of operations here.

 

[efil4]

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

its about amassing the "power" to pull this off.

Sure, the ENTIRE country wouldnt be on board, BUT you dont need 100%

just 51%

and if the majority of the 51% either aspire to have ( what the elites have ) or bring down the other remaining ppl to their level, by all means, do it.

Thats where we are right now. GOP is amassing/aligning the power to control as much as they possibly can. Especially the narrative. Thats the FIRST order of operations here.

I know it's their goal. I think it ultimately backfires on them catastrophically. We're already starting to see signs of the backfire coming. That could change and I'm not counting any chickens.

I just don't think they can reach critical mass, because their efforts create dissent and protest which requires more stringent control which leads to more dissent and protest. As they escalate, the resistance against them escalates. It's similar to the current dilemma of trying to build a craft that can travel at near the speed of light.

 

[efil4]

This is what I read earlier about what's being overlooked. I bolded what I think are the key points.

"“Headline numbers are hiding the economy’s true performance, which is slowing as tariffs take a bite out of activity,” Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic wrote."​

​

"Private investment fell at a 15.6% annual pace, biggest drop since COVID-19 slammed the economy."​

​

"A category within the GDP data that measures the economy’s underlying strength weakened in the second quarter, expanding at a 1.2% annual pace, down from 1.9% from January through March and the weakest since the end of 2022. This category includes consumer spending and private investment but excludes volatile items like exports, inventories and government spending."​

Along with a strong second quarter rebound for the US economy, some red flags

The U.S. economy expanded at a surprising 3% annual pace from April through June, bouncing back at least temporarily from a first-quarter drop that reflected disruptions arising from President Donald Trump’s trade wars.

apnews.com

the full text:


Q1 2025's 0.5% GDP collapse—worst since 2022—stemmed directly from Trump's tariff panic. Businesses scrambled to import $37.9B extra goods before price spikes, tanking growth. Now the admin peddles Q2's 3% "rebound" as victory while imports plunged 30.3%, proving this volatility IS their policy. That Q2 growth relied on reversing Q1's import surge (+5.18pts) exposes the facade. Core demand grew just 1.2% annually—weakest since 2022. Consumption crashed from 3.4% to 0.9%, exports fell 1.8%, yet Trump claims "historic success" while IMF warns global growth still lags pre-2025 forecasts. Tariff whiplash isn’t economic strategy—it’s arsonists claiming credit for fire trucks.

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

the full text:


Q1 2025's 0.5% GDP collapse—worst since 2022—stemmed directly from Trump's tariff panic. Businesses scrambled to import $37.9B extra goods before price spikes, tanking growth. Now the admin peddles Q2's 3% "rebound" as victory while imports plunged 30.3%, proving this volatility IS their policy. That Q2 growth relied on reversing Q1's import surge (+5.18pts) exposes the facade. Core demand grew just 1.2% annually—weakest since 2022. Consumption crashed from 3.4% to 0.9%, exports fell 1.8%, yet Trump claims "historic success" while IMF warns global growth still lags pre-2025 forecasts. Tariff whiplash isn’t economic strategy—it’s arsonists claiming credit for fire trucks.

I think Powell gave an accurate explanation. Did it seem that way to you?

 

[efil4]

I think Powell gave an accurate explanation. Did it seem that way to you?

absolutely- he is giving you the numbers.

the next post dives into those numbers to explain to you what they REALLY mean.

its not hard to figure out but so many simply wont put forth the effort to understand.

They would rather take his word for it.

So be it.

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

absolutely- he is giving you the numbers.

the next post dives into those numbers to explain to you what they REALLY mean.

its not hard to figure out but so many simply wont put forth the effort to understand.

They would rather take his word for it.

So be it.

If Trump's tariffs ever go into effect, it will financially hurt the majority of us and put a lot of stress on us. I don't know how it will impact the GDP or the economy, but I know it will make like more difficult and stressful for the majority of us.

 

[efil4]

If Trump's tariffs ever go into effect, it will financially hurt the majority of us and put a lot of stress on us. I don't know how it will impact the GDP or the economy, but I know it will make like more difficult and stressful for the majority of us.

Simple. the less money you have to spend on luxury items ( non-living expenses - AKA "disposable income" ) the less you spend on those items.

The less you spend, the less businesses make

the less businesses make, the less employment they can afford ( layoffs )

the layoffs = higher unemployment.

etc etc.

Multiply that over 50,000,000 others in same boat and you now see the effect it will have on GDP- negative. We arent growing( spending/buying) , we are contracting( saving/or just enough to cover living expenses so treading water )

its a downward cycle that is very hard to break out once you begin the slide.

Its why the FED pays close attention to all of it - so to avoid getting too far down the slide. But many times they simply cant and we need to slide down to bottom ( recession ) and let it run its course- which can last 12-18 months.

meanwhile EVERYONE suffers.

Well, not EVERYONE