The trade and economy mega-thread (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[Optimus Prime]

ok i loled

i did this not 2-3 weeks ago- had lunch at local steakhouse - had "tips n grits" - braised tenderloin tips over corn grits. it was so good that i just had to replicate at home.

not even close. lol. my corn grits came out "edible" but my wife n kids were like " wtf is this?" lol

One of the reasons restaurant dishes taste so much better is they use a fistful of salt and a brick size stick of butter

 

[Neworleansfan]

the snowball is now leaving the mountain top.

There is a very short window to stop it before it gains momentum downhill.

The only thing that will adjust GDP at this point will be government spending - which i suspect will ramp up here in short order to maintain the guise of a healthy economy, when its merely smoke and mirrors. Things are going to evolve rapidly over the next 6-9 months. Especially if the US/China trade war doesnt get resolved quickly. ( and China is showing no signs of capitulating )

As for market, luckily that GDP was partially baked in over last few weeks so its not reacting as bad as it could have been. But its still early, there are more forecasts to come today, ( analysts ) , so it can still be subjected to negative momentum.


one last note- the PCE- personal consumption expenditures price index- jumped from 2.4 to 3.6% annualized ( Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 ) - this is the FEDS main "inflation gauge"

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/gdp-q1-2025-.html?taid=681219e68745050001de2336&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

I am probably wrong but I have SPY at 460 by the 3rd quarter. Seems like the damages are already done and will show up by then.

 

[UriUT]

I was wondering when the blame Biden card would be played....now.

 

[superchuck500]

I’m old enough to remember when the stock market being up last fall was due to Trump.

 

[UriUT]

ok i loled

i did this not 2-3 weeks ago- had lunch at local steakhouse - had "tips n grits" - braised tenderloin tips over corn grits. it was so good that i just had to replicate at home.

not even close. lol. my corn grits came out "edible" but my wife n kids were like " wtf is this?" lol

There's a movie, "chef" I think, and a related show on Netflix that convinced me that making perfect grill cheese is a sign that you are a good chef. I tried and tried....nieces and nephews were not impressed.

 

[efil4]

I’m old enough to remember when the stock market being up last fall was due to Trump.

holy crap - we are gonna get 4 year recession, arent we?

 

[UriUT]

Nytimes ladies and gents.

 

[Optimus Prime]

There's a movie, "chef" I think, and a related show on Netflix that convinced me that making perfect grill cheese is a sign that you are a good chef. I tried and tried....nieces and nephews were not impressed.

Haven't heard that about grilled cheese but I've heard the same thing for eggs and that one thing restaurants will do when hiring chefs is ask them to make some eggs

 

[efil4]

I was wondering when the blame Biden card would be played....now.

its pure propaganda at this point. No two ways about- not a single person in that Administration can tell the American people the truth for fear of repercussions.

There isnt one shred of dignity left in any of them- including Bessent. Who was, prior to this stint, a very HIGHLY RESPECTED Bond trader. They have all sold their souls to be part of this system, and they are willing to gaslight their own family to do so.

 

[efil4]

Nytimes ladies and gents.

They are probably talking about the Feds ( Atlanta ) "GDP NOW' which admittedly had some initial issues. Specific to gold imports.

 

[UriUT]

Haven't heard that about grilled cheese but I've heard the same thing for eggs and that one thing restaurants will do when hiring chefs is ask them to make some eggs

Yea. I've seen this as well.

Here's the grill cheese brainwashing.

Grilled Cheese Recipe — The Chef Show

thechefshow.com

To their credit, the chefshow on Netflix improved my pasta making

 

[RobF]

I’m old enough to remember when the stock market being up last fall was due to Trump.

The stock market was up "because of Trump" in spring, summer, and fall last year.

But obviously nothing to do with him now.

 

[coldseat]

its pure propaganda at this point. No two ways about- not a single person in that Administration can tell the American people the truth for fear of repercussions.

There isnt one shred of dignity left in any of them- including Bessent. Who was, prior to this stint, a very HIGHLY RESPECTED Bond trader. They have all sold their souls to be part of this system, and they are willing to gaslight their own family to do so.

We've gone full North Korea.

 

[UriUT]

They are probably talking about the Feds ( Atlanta ) "GDP NOW' which admittedly had some initial issues. Specific to gold imports.

To be fair to that writer, he did say trump put a wrench on the measurement. The imports from earlier in the year altered the numbers. With that, that headline is, IMHO, misleading. It made it seem like Trump and his tariff policy isn't at fault when clearly it was. Those early imports were massive and a direct reaction to trump's impending tariffs. As Mark Cuban pointed out, that capital investment by importers will be felt because those investments will take away from other spending...like worker wages.

Yeah we are in for a rocky ride.

 

[efil4]

To be fair to that writer, he did say trump put a wrench on the measurement. The imports from earlier in the year altered the numbers. With that, that headline is, IMHO, misleading. It made it seem like Trump and his tariff policy isn't at fault when clearly it was. Those early imports were massive and a direct reaction to trump's impending tariffs. As Mark Cuban pointed out, that capital investment by importers will be felt because those investments will take away from other spending...like worker wages.

Yeah we are in for a rocky ride.

i didnt read- my bad.

yes companies "front loaded" as best they could prior to April 2. Bessent even stated as much just yesterday to CNBC interview.

Its all smoke and mirrors now. We are approaching Russian Ministry of Finance levels of deception when it comes to economic data.

 

[UriUT]

The stock market was up "because of Trump" in spring, summer, and fall last year.

But obviously nothing to do with him now.

Lol.

 

[efil4]

Lol.

there
is
always
a
tweet

 

[Optimus Prime]

There's a movie, "chef" I think, and a related show on Netflix that convinced me that making perfect grill cheese is a sign that you are a good chef. I tried and tried....nieces and nephews were not impressed.

Pretty good movie but it's pure food porn

I'll check out the show, that grilled cheese sounds delicious

Thanks