The trade and economy mega-thread (12 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[MT15]

With cars hit by tariffs we can look for used cars to go up in price.

It will be a double whammy - heh - people will keep their cars longer because they can’t afford a new one, therefore people who have to buy a car will see diminished supply of used cars AND increased demand. Thanks, Trump!

 

[longtime lurker]

safe to say, based on this tweet, that we are now in a trade standoff with China.

Your move Trump.

Multi-time bankrupt expert truly has no clue.

 

[longtime lurker]

Wall Street's biggest tech bull warns of $3,500 iPhones as 'economic Armageddon' looms from Trump tariffs

Trump's tariff announcement continues to shake markets and is leading to shocking estimates from some analysts on how the price of goods might change for US consumers.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Neworleansfan]

It will be a double whammy - heh - people will keep their cars longer because they can’t afford a new one, therefore people who have to buy a car will see diminished supply of used cars AND increased demand. Thanks, Trump!

Insurance will also go up because of more older, unreliable cars on the road.

 

[longtime lurker]

New Projected Cost of Trump-GOP Tax Cuts for the Rich: 'Staggering' $7 Trillion | Common Dreams

"What Republicans are trying to jam through Congress right now is a level of economic recklessness we’ve never seen before," said a group of Democratic lawmakers.

www.commondreams.org

 

[Huntn]

Seems like a good place for this:

 

[efil4]

 

[efil4]

 

[UriUT]

when does the conversation turn from "idiocy" to "planned"?

I cannot think that the entire Economic staff of the Admin - guys who have done this stuff for decades ( incl Baghdad Bob Lutnick ) have no idea how this works. Just cant. They have studied this for years, been in the financial industry for years...and we are supposed to believe that they simply dont know?

Can it be both? "planned idiocy"?

I stumbled upon this on the daily show.



This guest makes the argument that the government plays a role in a free market by herding it to what it views as beneficial to the society. I think he used "social engineering". I agree to a limited extent. We want clean energy because we believe that climate change is a long term threat. We want domestic advanced chips production because it is a national threat if an adversary controls that production line. Natural resources like rare earths, etc. There are advantages to some protectionism. Just like the jackass neocons. The neocons take this acceptable idea that spreading liberal democracy spreads peaceful coexistence and shift it to aggressive expansionism. Start preemptive invasions to impose their will on societies not yet ready to accept liberal ideas and assume that's the right thing to do. Machiavellian actions are acceptable because the end is just. This guest does the same by butchering an acceptable idea and expand it across all aspect unnecessarily. He argues for expanding the protectionism umbrella across the board to elevate American lives in every aspect. He essentially believes this is just, but lacks the self awareness to see that it's simply grievances. He argues that Japan and Germany benefitted from our military protection and free trade agreements. And we get nothing in return. It's infuriating that this person is parroting mercantilism without even knowing it. Trade benefits both parties. Although Stewart fails to list the benefits, and I don't blame him because he was given little time contemplate, the benefits to the US are there. Firstly, we don't have hostile adversaries that can make war. We get goods and services from them through the most efficient process and in turn we also sell them our goods. We improve our standard of living because we get a wide range of goods at a much cheaper prices. The military protection that we provide means we dictate the terms when it's advantageous to us. For example, the EU was furious that we passed the CHIPs act because now we assert that we're the dominant force in advanced chips.

It's nonsense that this idea of broad tariffs (mercantilism at heart) benefits more jobs and higher wages. I've brought it up before with competitive advantage. What these asshats are really doing is shifting a fully employed labor force to sectors long abandoned because it's low hanging fruits or even obsolete. Prices will rise because everything will now be inefficiently produced or artificially raised because of these tariffs.

 

[B4YOU]

This has crossed my mind. Impose hardship. Then have each industry come to him so that he would create exceptions. Very much like what he's doing to the law community.

Truth! It’s about forcing everyone to bend the knee.

 

[efil4]

Can it be both? "planned idiocy"?

I stumbled upon this on the daily show.



This guest makes the argument that the government plays a role in a free market by herding it to what it views as beneficial to the society. I think he used "social engineering". I agree to a limited extent. We want clean energy because we believe that climate change is a long term threat. We want domestic advanced chips production because it is a national threat if an adversary controls that production line. Natural resources like rare earths, etc. There are advantages to some protectionism. Just like the jackass neocons. The neocons take this acceptable idea that spreading liberal democracy spreads peaceful coexistence and shift it to aggressive expansionism. Start preemptive invasions to impose their will on societies not yet ready to accept liberal ideas and assume that's the right thing to do. Machiavellian actions are acceptable because the end is just. This guest does the same by butchering an acceptable idea and expand it across all aspect unnecessarily. He argues for expanding the protectionism umbrella across the board to elevate American lives in every aspect. He essentially believes this is just, but lacks the self awareness to see that it's simply grievances. He argues that Japan and Germany benefitted from our military protection and free trade agreements. And we get nothing in return. It's infuriating that this person is parroting mercantilism without even knowing it. Trade benefits both parties. Although Stewart fails to list the benefits, and I don't blame him because he was given little time contemplate, the benefits to the US are there. Firstly, we don't have hostile adversaries that can make war. We get goods and services from them through the most efficient process and in turn we also sell them our goods. We improve our standard of living because we get a wide range of goods at a much cheaper prices. The military protection that we provide means we dictate the terms when it's advantageous to us. For example, the EU was furious that we passed the CHIPs act because now we assert that we're the dominant force in advanced chips.

It's nonsense that this idea of broad tariffs (mercantilism at heart) benefits more jobs and higher wages. I've brought it up before with competitive advantage. What these asshats are really doing is shifting a fully employed labor force to sectors long abandoned because it's low hanging fruits or even obsolete. Prices will rise because everything will now be inefficiently produced or artificially raised because of these tariffs.

so i just got off call with FA- works for a national firm

2 takeaways-

1- they honestly believe that Trump ( in private stated he wanted to shed 20% of SP 500 ) was hell bent on moving markets to Jan 2020 levels - pre covid. Stated HE HATED the fact that Biden rallied markets to the levels it got to over his term. So this was planned.

2- said part of this was to put pressure on Fed ( last 30 min he called for FED to reduce rates ) to reduce rates, which would reduce "deficit numbers". Fed said NO. So now we are in a game of chicken - Trump v Fed- said SOMEONE will have to blink. Trump will OWN a recession because then the real news will come out on his effort to alleviate deficit by forcing FED to reduce rates - pure political pressure.

im convinced now this was all preplanned.

They ALL KNEW EXACTLY what they were doing and why - and keep in mind, this is also a wealth transfer- He has decimated the middle class investment portfolios and there will be hell to pay.


and BTW. Lutnick was on TV saying how much MFG was coming back ( with jobs )

Then 2 sentences later said " ROBOTICS will man the production lines"

WHAT JOBS THEN????

 

[efil4]

a very "diplomatic NO" lol

 

[bird]

OK.

The only thing that will possibly “comeback” with any volume is low tech manufacturing. High tech manufacturing requires specific education and training but, this is crucial, IT DOES NOT EMPLOY PEOPLE ON THE SCALE THAT LARGE MANUFACTURING DID. Steel mills shed jobs because technology allowed them to do so. Car manufacturers shed jobs because technology allowed them to. Any large scale manufacturing done now cannot match the number of jobs that were prevalent during the so-called golden age of capitalism. As a small example the USX works in Gary employed 36,000 people at one time. Today they employ 6,000.

 

[efil4]

All of this reminds me of the scene in The Hunt for Red October" - Capt Tupelov was chasing the USS Dallas, with Rameus on board, attempting to sink her and keep Rameus from defecting. Fired torpedoes but the Dallas closed the distance and torpedo didnt detonate due to timer.

So Tupelov fired another, but this time removed all safety measures. The Dallas turned into heading right toward Tupelov, broke right and the torpedo homed in on Tupelov because he removed the safety measures. Sunk him.

Trump has all safety measures removed and the torpedo has hit us.

 

[efil4]

OK.

The only thing that will possibly “comeback” with any volume is low tech manufacturing. High tech manufacturing requires specific education and training but, this is crucial, IT DOES NOT EMPLOY PEOPLE ON THE SCALE THAT LARGE MANUFACTURING DID. Steel mills shed jobs because technology allowed them to do so. Car manufacturers shed jobs because technology allowed them to. Any large scale manufacturing done now cannot match the number of jobs that were prevalent during the so-called golden age of capitalism. As a small example the USX works in Gary employed 36,000 people at one time. Today they employ 6,000.

Lutnick said it aloud- "High school tradecraft" aka cheap labor - pay a kid out of high school $36,000/yr ( with no real chance for massive increase in pay ) to fix the robots manning the production lines. That same USX plant with 6000- will be 1000 by time its all said and done.

its a !@#$@#$@#$ ruse

 

[zztop]

What's This National Emergency Power Trump Just Invoked?

President Donald Trump is declaring a national emergency to justify the new tariffs, invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which gives a president sweeping economic powers during a “declared emergency” to address “any unusual and extraordinary threat” to the national security, fo

www.barrons.com

President Donald Trump is declaring a national emergency to justify the new tariffs, invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which gives a president sweeping economic powers during a “declared emergency” to address “any unusual and extraordinary threat” to the national security, foreign policy, or the economy of the U.S.

The IEEPA stems from the Trading with the Enemy Act, which Congress passed in 1917 to regulate international transactions with enemy powers after the U.S. entered the first World War. Congress later expanded it to let the president declare a national emergency during peacetime and to grant sweeping powers over domestic and international transactions.

 

[fooferdoggie]

The IEEPA stems from the Trading with the Enemy Act, which Congress passed in 1917 to regulate international transactions with enemy powers after the U.S. entered the first World War. Congress later expanded it to let the president declare a national emergency during peacetime and to grant sweeping powers over domestic and international transactions.

Yes we have an emergency and it is in the White House with a Depends and cheeto skin.

 

[longtime lurker]

California to negotiate trade with other countries to bypass Trump tariffs

Gov. Gavin Newsom said California will look for new trade opportunities.

www.newsweek.com