The trade and economy mega-thread (5 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[DaveXA]

Only Trump can unite these 3 countries like no other. Massive implications? More like massive dumbassery by POTUS.

Trump is going to singlehandedly destroy our country without a shot being fired. It's remarkable really.

 

[MT15]

This is a valid and frightening way to look at what Trump is doing to the economy:

 

[Lapaz]

Only Trump can unite these 3 countries like no other. Massive implications? More like massive dumbassery by POTUS.

Trump is going to singlehandedly destroy our country without a shot being fired. It's remarkable really.

The effect of the tariffs on our security is very undercovered. Almost all of the coverage is on the impact on the economy, but the cost to disentangling our economies on world stability and security is much more serious. There is already talk about nuclear proliferation due to our unreliability, but this is making it even more likely. It may require us to pour even more into the military since the risks will be greater.

 

[DaveXA]

The effect of the tariffs on our security is very undercovered. Almost all of the coverage is on the impact on the economy, but the cost to disentangling our economies on world stability and security is much more serious. There is already talk about nuclear proliferation due to our unreliability, but this is making it even more likely. It may require us to pour even more into the military since the risks will be greater.

No question this impacts our national security. Our enemies will interpret our positioning (isolation and realignment) as weakness and they'll be the ones trying to expand, and our allies ate going to be wondering what the hell happened.

 

[bird]

Only Trump can unite these 3 countries like no other. Massive implications? More like massive dumbassery by POTUS.

Trump is going to singlehandedly destroy our country without a shot being fired. It's remarkable really.

Butter e-mails

Biden is too old

I just can’t vote for a woman

All seriousness aside, globalization most assuredly can end. The impact of that ending would be extremely complex. The depth of that complexity cannot be determined with the imbecilities currently “running” our country. Yes, Peter Zeihan wrote about this precise issue in The End is Just the Beginning but while I do not think he was being simplistic, I do think he was being a bit too optimistic. The idiocy put forth by Trump and MAGA is not a sustainable approach to dealing with the complexity we are encountering.

Musk and the Techbros/oligarchs are going to be surprised in a very bad way if things becomes unraveled. That will be the time when strongmen/charlatans arise.

 

[efil4]

 

[bird]

He is a complete idiot.

 

[Optimus Prime]

He treats America and people's lives like it’s a television show

He said exactly that during the Zelensky dust up in the oval office

“This is going to make great TV”

 

[Optimus Prime]

About a third of Americans stop buying eggs due to rising costs, study shows

Data says 34% of those in US stopped purchasing breakfast staple and won’t buy again until costs lower to $5 a carton

www.theguardian.com

 

[Optimus Prime]

Already getting ready to blame someone other than Trump
==========

It’s unclear what impact President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs will have on the U.S. economy, but if things go badly, members of the administration are reportedly ready to blame Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick.

Lutnick, a businessman and former CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, is aligned with the president on tariffs, believing they will balance the U.S. budget and reduce its deficit.

Despite fears that they could plunge the U.S. stock market – or worse, incite a recession – Lutnick has said they are “worth it” and “produce revenues,” though from American businesses that pay the tariffs, and U.S. consumers who have to help cover them.

Lutnick has even advocated for them, allegedly “pushing” for “more aggressive tariffs” one person close to the administration told Politico.

While Peter Navarro serves as Trump’s trade adviser, the Commerce secretary’s positive position on tariffs has now made him the de-facto fall guy should the economy or stock market respond poorly to Trump’s tariffs, two people told Politico.…….

The one official Trump world is ready to blame if tariffs are a disaster

Lutnick has reportedly pushed for ‘more aggressive’ tariffs during talks

www.independent.co.uk

 

[MT15]

I don’t know for sure this is real, but nobody in the comments below this post said it was faked. He is so damn dim.

 

[faceman]

I don’t know for sure this is real, but nobody in the comments below this post said it was faked. He is so damn dim.

Too little too late Mitch. You had your chance to end this nightmare and failed

 

[efil4]

 

[faceman]

Going to be a very interesting day for sure

 

[efil4]

Going to be a very interesting day for sure

markets will tread water until either leak or announcement of full details.

I have to think some folks are in his ear about going "full tariff/trade war" but who knows. The uncertainty is not what happens today or tomorrow, but 1-3 months from now, economically.

I can see folks absorbing higher prices for 1-2 months. Not 6-12 months. Because folks will have to start re-arranging budgets to account for less disposable income. And if that snowball starts rolling downhill, then things will get quite uneasy. If people stop spending, thats contraction in M1 money supply. A contraction in M1 is a good indication of recession ahead.

 

[faceman]

markets will tread water until either leak or announcement of full details.

I have to think some folks are in his ear about going "full tariff/trade war" but who knows. The uncertainty is not what happens today or tomorrow, but 1-3 months from now, economically.

I can see folks absorbing higher prices for 1-2 months. Not 6-12 months. Because folks will have to start re-arranging budgets to account for less disposable income. And if that snowball starts rolling downhill, then things will get quite uneasy. If people stop spending, thats contraction in M1 money supply. A contraction in M1 is a good indication of recession ahead.

The automakers are pissed. You know they are in his ear. I read an article that said average price of new car is about to go up 5K

 

[efil4]

Mercedes Weighs Pulling US Entry-Level Cars Over Tariffs

(Bloomberg) -- Supply Lines is a daily newsletter that tracks global trade. Sign up here.Most Read from BloombergWhat Frank Lloyd Wright Learned From the DesertLondon Clears Final Hurdle for More High-Speed Trains to EuropeMetro-North Is Faster Than Acela on NYC-New Haven Route After Signal...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[efil4]

The automakers are pissed. You know they are in his ear. I read an article that said average price of new car is about to go up 5K

and thats on AVERAGE - some models could see upwards of $10k added. IF the mfg doesnt absorb some of the cost of tariff.

So that slows new car sales to a crawl. Conversely, used car prices will jump simply off demand. So folks working at new car dealerships have to be wondering what to do. At some point, as new car sales plummet, dealers will be forced to lay off folks.

And the downward spiral continues...