The trade and economy mega-thread (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[efil4]

The ten man HVAC companies by me are being gobbled up by PE. The companies don't change their names, just how they bill and generally the service declines. PE has also bought out local body shops and tire shops.

That hasnt hit here...yet.

And honestly, i dont see the benefit for an established Trade Contractor to bring on a PE firm to share profits with for an "up front" infusion of cash. ( unless they have designs on growing even larger then it makes sense )
But i would say 90% of my trade clients are 6-10 years plus in business. Some longer and over the years, have "blown up" ( 15+ employees ) only to reverse course 2-3 years later because the headache of managing employees was simply too much. They found that 4-7 employees is the sweet spot. ( not to mention the insurance cost of pushing 20 employees with 20 vehicles here in LA - and god forbid you have a claim history, then you are circling the drain )

 

[Dragon]

Another country getting rid of American tech. Can’t say I blame them one bit.

Yes it has been in the works the last 18 months... Most data has already been transfered off those platforms

 

[efil4]

 

[B4YOU]

That hasnt hit here...yet.

And honestly, i dont see the benefit for an established Trade Contractor to bring on a PE firm to share profits with for an "up front" infusion of cash. ( unless they have designs on growing even larger then it makes sense )
But i would say 90% of my trade clients are 6-10 years plus in business. Some longer and over the years, have "blown up" ( 15+ employees ) only to reverse course 2-3 years later because the headache of managing employees was simply too much. They found that 4-7 employees is the sweet spot. ( not to mention the insurance cost of pushing 20 employees with 20 vehicles here in LA - and god forbid you have a claim history, then you are circling the drain )

This happens first where there is the most capital. East coast small businesses are getting bought by PE. This will trickle to other areas in time. It's not Renewal by Anderson that functions as a overpriced call center subcontracting work. HVAC is often emergency service where the buyer has little price sensitivity because it's either freezing or sweltering. The goal is to keep small businesses and the employees with new ownership and new pricing. It leaves buyers with bunch of businesses with higher prices or the "I know a guy" who lacks more than a couple of yelp reviews none of which want to show for a quote without a fee.

Private Equity Is Coming For Your AC Repairman

Surprisingly, the HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) service industry has recently become a hot target for private equity (PE) investors.

www.forbes.com

 

[MT15]

Isn’t this sorta socialist?

 

[MT15]

The markets have decided to basically ignore it when Trump says something delusional or bat shirt crazy even. Is that good or bad?

Bluesky

bsky.app

 

[efil4]

The markets have decided to basically ignore it when Trump says something delusional or bat shirt crazy even. Is that good or bad?

Bluesky

bsky.app

Its not the random lies that would move the needle.

Its the erosion of trust when his administration talks about market conditions. Ive said here and on the EE board Investment thread.

This Admin is kicking several cans down several roads at the same time. At some point, the roads all converge. Under normal circumstances, one can/road will reach convergence BEFORE all the others. And can be dealt with.

Its when ALL CANS meet at convergence point AT ONCE. Then you dont have the economic tools to deal with ALL the issues at once.

So yeah, the market is ignoring all of it, in a sense.

Because the market knows, historically, we have had the people in place to deal with. Who understand the crisis (crises ) and make the right decisions to mitigate the damage(s). So it operates with a sense of having a backstop- the ball wont get past a certain point. The other part is that the market is inherently "smash and grab" - Get while the gettins good. Make as much as you can in the environment, in hopes that your gains will outstrip your losses when it all crashes ( stop-loss on stocks is one way to mitigate- Take MSFT- if the wave rides the stock price to $520. You bought at $300. If you are comfortable with that gain, you put a stop-loss at say $510- meaning if MSFT starts falling, once it hits $510, it automatically sells. "stopping your losses" and locking in your gains. But if its a true crash, you may not find anyone to buy at $510. it may sell at $490. But still not dropping to $300 and giving all your gains back )

Its why the next Fed Chair is so important. Will he do what is BEST for the MACRO economy or will he do whats BEST for MICRO economy? If he put in place to do Trumps bidding, then its the latter. Leaving the rest of us to deal with the consequences if that convergence happens.

Between inflation, negative job growth, slowing GDP, Iran war, global economic pressures, consumer confidence, AI, rising ag/supply issues....lots of cans being kicked. IF all those meet up at same time, its gonna be pretty consequential.

 

[efil4]

 

[efil4]

 

[MT15]

Just saw this.

Meta to Lay Off 10% of Employees in May — The Wall Street Journal

Company says workforce cut of 8,000 needed to run more efficiently and offset other investments

apple.news

 

[bird]

Reality is for cucks.

 

[bird]

Just saw this.

Meta to Lay Off 10% of Employees in May — The Wall Street Journal

Company says workforce cut of 8,000 needed to run more efficiently and offset other investments

apple.news

I thought Zuckerberg was a genius.