The Joe Biden 2020 tracker thread (11 Viewers)

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    Bernie officially out. Biden will be the nominee.
     
    Basically. I keep waiting for a Biden replacement to pop up, but it seems like the DNC is just mailing it in. They still have time, but I hope their plan isn't to just scream covid voter suppression till 2024.

    I think they learned the wrong lesson from the 2016 election. They saw America elect a barely coherent, unhealthy man with sexual assault accusations, and thought, hey, we have one of those too. They decided to go with extra old instead of morbidly obese to claim there is a difference.

    I do think Republicans celebrating are seriously underestimating Joe's appeal in the mid-west and his ties to Obama will definitely help him. Trump remains deeply unpopular, and I think most impartial observers would say during the corona-virus he hasn't seemed like a leader, which will hurt him come November. Trump won by 80,000 votes spread over 3 states. His signature achievement was the tax package and hoping to take credit for the good economy, which of course is now gone except the massive deficits. A skilled campaigner could point out that job growth slowed under Trump even before the pandemic and only debt increased, and those gains were not long lasting.

    So, unless there is a major economic rebound (which might happen), Trump is left with no lasting accomplishment and a huge deficit and the image of a fat man rage tweeting from his toilet at 3AM.
     
    I think they learned the wrong lesson from the 2016 election. They saw America elect a barely coherent, unhealthy man with sexual assault accusations, and thought, hey, we have one of those too. They decided to go with extra old instead of morbidly obese to claim there is a difference.

    I do think Republicans celebrating are seriously underestimating Joe's appeal in the mid-west and his ties to Obama will definitely help him. Trump remains deeply unpopular, and I think most impartial observers would say during the corona-virus he hasn't seemed like a leader, which will hurt him come November. Trump won by 80,000 votes spread over 3 states. His signature achievement was the tax package and hoping to take credit for the good economy, which of course is now gone except the massive deficits. A skilled campaigner could point out that job growth slowed under Trump even before the pandemic and only debt increased, and those gains were not long lasting.

    So, unless there is a major economic rebound (which might happen), Trump is left with no lasting accomplishment and a huge deficit and the image of a fat man rage tweeting from his toilet at 3AM.

    A recent poll showed that the percentage of Biden supporters who described themselves as "very enthusiastic" was a historic low of 23%. While I question the accuracy of this and every other poll, that seems to match what I see.

    Add to that, the Bernie or bust phenomenon is real, the only question is whether those little socialists would have gotten up off the couch to go vote anyway.
     
    I think they learned the wrong lesson from the 2016 election. They saw America elect a barely coherent, unhealthy man with sexual assault accusations, and thought, hey, we have one of those too. They decided to go with extra old instead of morbidly obese to claim there is a difference.

    I do think Republicans celebrating are seriously underestimating Joe's appeal in the mid-west and his ties to Obama will definitely help him. Trump remains deeply unpopular, and I think most impartial observers would say during the corona-virus he hasn't seemed like a leader, which will hurt him come November. Trump won by 80,000 votes spread over 3 states. His signature achievement was the tax package and hoping to take credit for the good economy, which of course is now gone except the massive deficits. A skilled campaigner could point out that job growth slowed under Trump even before the pandemic and only debt increased, and those gains were not long lasting.

    So, unless there is a major economic rebound (which might happen), Trump is left with no lasting accomplishment and a huge deficit and the image of a fat man rage tweeting from his toilet at 3AM.
    Yep. Looks pretty similar to 2016 and Democrats who were prematurely celebrating victory because Trump was the opposing candidate.
     
    A recent poll showed that the percentage of Biden supporters who described themselves as "very enthusiastic" was a historic low of 23%. While I question the accuracy of this and every other poll, that seems to match what I see.

    Add to that, the Bernie or bust phenomenon is real, the only question is whether those little socialists would have gotten up off the couch to go vote anyway.

    We'll see I guess.

    I assume Biden won't make the same mistake of turning down Obama's grass roots machine, and he also won't ignore the mid-west like she did.

    If the economy doesn't rebound very strongly from this, or rather, if the average worker feels like they are economically insecure even with an 11 year economic expansion that came crashing down, then Biden will be in a strong position.

    If the average worker believes the tax cuts and trade wars made their life more able to withstand economic shocks like we're seeing now (ie, if they feel like their jobs are secure even in a recession, or if they can still have health insurance, pay their mortgage and find a job in a short period of time if they do lose their job), then Trump will be in a good position.
     
    And I'll caveat this by saying I really have no idea. I'm constantly perplexed by people who can get enthusiastic about a lot of these candidates.
     
    And I'll caveat this by saying I really have no idea. I'm constantly perplexed by people who can get enthusiastic about a lot of these candidates.
    My off the wall prediction is that Biden names Obama as his top advisor or something... I think he'd waltz into the White House.
     
    And I'll caveat this by saying I really have no idea. I'm constantly perplexed by people who can get enthusiastic about a lot of these candidates.

    I still don't know how the hell we had this field of candidates out of a nation of 330 million.

    In all honesty, if I was looking to hire a regional manager for whatever and my choices were Biden or Trump - I think I would just consolidate regions to where I didn't need to make that hire.

    Same with a lot of them. If you were interviewing Beto and he skateboarded into your office, stood on the conference table and randomnly started speaking in foreign languages would you hire him? The guy's a loon.
     
    IMO, and it is biased, I think the democratic party left a lot democrats in the swing to the left.
     
    Joe Biden will be a decent president, and he's leading Trump in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. His VP choice will be a big factor in increasing his lead. It's a shame that he has committed to a woman, because I think Cuomo has become a star, and could be a strong running mate. I was looking forward to voting for a ticket with a woman, but now I wish he hadn't committed to a woman.
     
    Joe Biden will be a decent president, and he's leading Trump in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. His VP choice will be a big factor in increasing his lead. It's a shame that he has committed to a woman, because I think Cuomo has become a star, and could be a strong running mate. I was looking forward to voting for a ticket with a woman, but now I wish he hadn't committed to a woman.

    Well, if you don't want decisions made based on something so frivolous as a person's genitalia reject identity politics.

    Shows you what kind of President he would be, his first major decision and he cuts his options by about half just to virtue signal. And yet, he's still not as bad as Warren.
     
    I think they learned the wrong lesson from the 2016 election. They saw America elect a barely coherent, unhealthy man with sexual assault accusations, and thought, hey, we have one of those too. They decided to go with extra old instead of morbidly obese to claim there is a difference.

    I agree with your post, but I keep seeing everybody say "they". I assume they is the DNC. The DNC certainly wanted a moderate and not a progressive. I'm not arguing that point, but ultimately the democratic voters where the ones who voted for Biden. Nobody made them, it was their choice. Much the same way the Republicans voters chose Trump last election cycle over the other candidates running.

    No reason they won't show up and vote again in November. He'll also get the votes that Hillary ignored in the rust belt.

    The only danger here for the democrats are progressives not voting due to lack of enthusiasm. But I don't think progressive feel the same disdain for Biden that they did for Hillary.

    Given how Trump has botched the coronavirus response, the exploding deficit and languishing economy, I think Biden wins pretty convincingly.
     
    Like as in a train wreck kind of way? I'm concerned it will turn into more incoherent babbling.

    Yep, it's literally going to be a train wreck. We all know Trump comes off horribly when speaking off the cuff and Biden is going to give us some real gems of complete gibberish as well.
     

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