The Joe Biden 2020 tracker thread (6 Viewers)

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    Heathen said:
    As of now there is a 65 delegate lead for Biden, which just shows there is a long way to any sure thing regarding the nomination.

    Biden 566
    Sanders 501
    Click to expand...

    It's hard to say now, because all of the polling data still has Bloomberg pulling votes away from Biden (and possibly Bernie).

    The data hasn't caught up to what's going on.
     
    Latest delegate count has Biden with a 67 delegate lead at 595 - 528

    For reference, Clinton lead the delegate count 1055 - 418 after Super Tuesday 2016
     
    Heathen said:
    Latest delegate count has Biden with a 67 delegate lead at 595 - 528

    For reference, Clinton lead the delegate count 1055 - 418 after Super Tuesday 2016
    Click to expand...
    It is far from over. But I do think Bernie needs a win in Michigan. If he wins there the narrative quickly changes yet again. If he loses, it just makes the March 17 primaries must wins - at least 2 of Ohio, Florida, or Illinois. Arizona would be a good win for either of them as well, of course, and Bernie has had a big lead there for a while. But losing Michigan makes winning any of these states really hard for Sanders.
     
    Dadsdream said:
    Think she'll end up as a VP candidate? Stranger things have happened.

    www.cnn.com

    Elizabeth Warren ends her presidential campaign

    Elizabeth Warren dropped out of the presidential race following another round of disappointing finishes in primary contests across the country on Super Tuesday.
    www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
    Click to expand...
    Not sure.

    Step one is if she'll go with Biden or Sanders. My guess is that she will endorse Biden, and try to shape policy.

    Would she just go back to the Senate? Or try to be in the Admin.

    I think it is smarter to take a running mate who isnt in the senate or has someone behind them that could handily win the seat.

    Warren also wouldnt help win any states. She didn't do well.

    Pete might actually carry more, and it wouldnt be that much.
     
    insidejob said:
    Click to expand...

    If you add up the votes both Bernie and Warren received in 2020 in Vermont, it's still 15,000 votes shy of what Bernie alone received in 2016.

    I think this thing is essentially over. If Bernie's voters didn't show up on Super Tuesday, they're not going to. Can't see how Bernie gets a plurality of delegates now, and without even having that his shot at the nomination is certainly zero.
     
    Last edited:
    I think that while his numbers certainly declined from 2016, we have to remember the number of attractive candidates Dems had to choose from as opposed to basically just Hillary in 2016. Warren, Bloomberg, Klobuchar, etc.

    Having said that, i don't think it's reasonable to say that this race is over when the delegate count is this close (though i admit Biden has all the momentum).
     
    Brandon13 said:
    Heh, it's reminiscent of McCain"s
    If you add up the votes both Bernie and Warren received in 2020 in Vermont, it's still 15,000 votes shy of what Bernie alone received in 2016.

    I think this thing is essentially over. If Bernie's voters didn't show up on Super Tuesday, they're not going to. Can't see how Bernie gets a plurality of delegates now, and without even having that his shot at the nomination is certainly zero.
    Click to expand...
    I forget where I read it last night, but somewhere listed turnout of each Super Tuesday state in 2020 vs. 2016. They did not have results for California or MAssachusetts yet, but of the remaining states all except Oklahoma had large increases in turnout. I think that bodes well for Democrats, obviously.

    Perhaps that means Democrats were getting more black voters and more working class voters? I would think so, but do not know for sure. I would think 2016 skewed more white (or less black) and more educated compared to 2020.

    Also, though, Clinton did very well on Super Tuesday - it ws always going to be a tough day for Sanders, imo. Although with California it helped him a little bit. I think the big loss for Bernie was Texas. Again, I would imagine it was more participation by blacks and working class voters.
     
    Delegate count has Biden up 64 at:
    Biden 602 Sanders 538
     
    Dadsdream said:
    Think she'll end up as a VP candidate? Stranger things have happened.

    www.cnn.com

    Elizabeth Warren ends her presidential campaign

    Elizabeth Warren dropped out of the presidential race following another round of disappointing finishes in primary contests across the country on Super Tuesday.
    www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
    Click to expand...

    I doubt Warren will be the VP. There are 4 options for the Dem VP:
    1. Bernie - bring youth and Latinos to the table and heal the 2016 riff
    2. WoC like Abrams, Harris, etc. - bring blacks and women to the polls
    3. Warren - bring out suburban white moms.
    4. Young male like Beto/Yang - covers Biden's age and brings youth vote.
    I think the order is the rank for these options with 1 and 2 being really close while there is a big gap between 2 and 3. She didn’t even get 2nd in her home state.
     
    B4YOU said:
    I doubt Warren will be the VP. There are 4 options for the Dem VP:
    1. Bernie - bring youth and Latinos to the table and heal the 2016 riff
    2. WoC like Abrams, Harris, etc. - bring blacks and women to the polls
    3. Warren - bring out suburban white moms.
    4. Young male like Beto/Yang - covers Biden's age and brings youth vote.
    I think the order is the rank for these options with 1 and 2 being really close while there is a big gap between 2 and 3. She didn’t even get 2nd in her home state.
    Click to expand...

    I don't see Bernie as a VP candidate, but I can see the Biden campaign allowing Bernie to play kingmaker to a degree by picking a VP candidate. That would be a way to get some of the more progressive wing to have some enthusiasm for Biden.

    And let's face it, the VP candidate for a President Biden is going to be pretty important given his age and what appears to me to be a decline in overall function.
     
    If the nominee ends up being Biden, I would think Ideally that he would want to pick somebody that was young and has some credibility with Hispanic and women voters. I don't know who that is but I like Julian Castro and Warren. Abrams would be a great pick, but I don't know how she would help him grow his appeal/electorate.

    I doubt Bernie would accept a VP nomination and I doubt Biden would offer it.
     

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