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    fivethirtyeight.com

    Our Election Forecast Didn’t Say What I Thought It Would

    Why we factored in COVID-19, why we ignored approval ratings, and other deep cuts from our election model
    fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com

    My editors are forever asking me to take the long Twitter threads I write and turn them into articles here at FiveThirtyEight. So I’m actually going to give that a try!

    What follows are some follow-up thoughts on our election model, which was originally composed in the form of a V E R Y L O N G tweetstorm that I never published. (See if you can guess where the 240-character breaks would have been.)

    In this thread … err, article … I’ll try to walk you through my thought process on a few elements of our model and respond to a few thoughtful critiques I’ve seen elsewhere. Before you dive in, it may help to read our summary of the state of the race, or at least skim our very detailed methodology guide.

    But the basic starting point for a probabilistic, poll-driven model ought to be this: Is polling in August a highly reliable way to predict the outcome in November?

    The short answer is “no.”

    Polling in August is somewhat predictive. You’d much rather be ahead than behind. But there can still be some very wild swings.
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    Another good (long) article from 538 about the election forecast and the state of polling.
     
    rajncajn said:
    Luray, VA mayor = Republican Party? I've never even heard of Luray and a Google check shows it's a town of under 5k people.
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    Been there a few times, in the Shenandoah valley, beautiful country. Most folks there are gun-loving bible thumping what passes for conservatives these days types....
     
    SFIDC3 said:
    Been there a few times, in the Shenandoah valley, beautiful country. Most folks there are gun-loving bible thumping what passes for conservatives these days types....
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    You ain't lying about the Shenandoah Valley being beautiful country. I've camped all over it (my sister went to college in DC and lived there for 4 years after finishing her master's) so we'd meet her up there and go camping. My favorite thing to do was lying on the hood of the car in one of the overlook spots on the side of the road and watching the stars for what felt like an eternity. You're right about the "townies" in that area too, for the most part. They're just as idiot southerner as the deep south southerners that wear it like a badge.
     
    insidejob said:
    You ain't lying about the Shenandoah Valley being beautiful country. I've camped all over it (my sister went to college in DC and lived there for 4 years after finishing her master's) so we'd meet her up there and go camping. My favorite thing to do was lying on the hood of the car in one of the overlook spots on the side of the road and watching the stars for what felt like an eternity. You're right about the "townies" in that area too, for the most part. They're just as idiot southerner as the deep south southerners that wear it like a badge.
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    An old friend who I flyfished with (I could call him a mentor really) lived just outside Sperryville. Another fishing buddy lives just outside Culpeper and my SIL lives just outside Charlottesville. So I've spent some time hiking and fishing in that general area. It can be a magical place, White Oak Canyon is one of my favorite places there along with the Big Meadows area of the Rapidan River....
     
    Look at this GOP firm's poll:



    That kind of result would prevent him from chaining himself to the White House and refusing to leave.
     
    Booker said:
    Biden's speech from earlier today...

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    And no questions and right back to the basement. Maybe Carbi B will do a follow up, hard hitting interview before the election.

    When does everyone think Biden will come down with COVID? I think toward the end of September so he can heroically conquer the virus while quarantining for 4 weeks and emerge just before the election?
     
    Farb said:
    And no questions and right back to the basement. Maybe Carbi B will do a follow up, hard hitting interview before the election.

    When does everyone think Biden will come down with COVID? I think toward the end of September so he can heroically conquer the virus while quarantining for 4 weeks and emerge just before the election?
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    I hadn't thought of that... I like it though.
     

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