Looming budget battle: Will the GOP force federal shutdown (1 Viewer)

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    superchuck500

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    Annual federal appropriations will lapse on September 30, 2023 - now less than a month away. After the debt-ceiling fight, many anticipated that the FY 2024 funding battle could see a federal government shutdown of some length as Republicans push for more budget cuts . . . and that was before Special Counsel Jack Smith's office filed two separate criminal prosecutions of Donald Trump. Desperate to hit back in any way they can, the MAGAs in Congress have already said they will attempt to de-fund the prosecution. Of course, the only way they could even attempt to do that would be to force a shutdown of the entire federal government, or at least the civilian executive agencies presuming a bill funding DOD could get through.

    It's hard to imagine that they won't try this, the questions are when will they try it and how much of the GOP goes along with the MAGAs (i.e. Freedom Caucus), particularly in the Senate where McConnell has already indicated no interest in such a gambit . . . though McConnell's health may eventually come into play. Would, for example, the Republicans agree to a continuing resolution to fund the government for several months to allow the time to get closer to the Trump federal trial dates before actually attempting a shutdown? (March 4 in DC and May 20 in Florida).

    One factor in play is that federal funding rules allow the Article III courts (which include the federal district and appellate courts) to continue operation in a shutdown and they also allow for federal agencies to continue with "excepted" activities that include, generally, federal criminal prosecutions. (See article below). This allowance, however, is not perpetual, it is funded by other sources that do eventually dry up - so eventually they would shut down. Hypothetically, but such a lengthy shutdown would be terribly detrimental to the economy and have substantial political damage for the party perceived to have caused it . . . in this case that wouldn't be much of a debate.

    For those reasons, I think the smarter GOP leaders, particularly in the Senate, will recognized that trying to use the budget as a tool to harm the Trump prosecutions is a fool's game: it's almost certain not to achieve that goal and it's to bring about substantial harm. But the MAGAs aren't as smart and given their wild allegiance to Trump, we can expect some sort of effort. At minimum it gives them an ability to say to their MAGA constituents that they tried to shutdown the prosecutions but were sold out by the RINOs in the Senate.

    Going to be an interesting showdown. I don't think I can recall a shutdown battle where actually shutting the government down so that it couldn't function was the objective rather than a tool for coercion. Crazy.



     
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    this is what happens when your head is so far up trumps arse the gas causes you to channel trump.
     
    The CR expires at midnight on November 17. There are just 13 "in-session" days in the House between now and then. The CR was supposed to give the House 45 days to pass the remaining eight appropriations bills . . . because according to the rationale, CRs and omnibus bills are terrible.

    Meanwhile, the House still has no speaker and there has been zero movement on any spending bill whatsoever.
     
    The resolution that was passed in September expires this Friday at midnight. It was supposed to be passed to give the House GOP time to present the remaining eight appropriations bills - but instead they deposed the Speaker and have passed no additional spending bills.

    The Senate is now pushing for a CR that will go through the end of FY 2024, next September.
     
    Johnson might find himself walking the plank like his predecessor.

    I mentioned it before but Johnson is in a tougher spot than seems to be getting attention. Barksdale AFB is an enormous part of his district's economy and a defining part of the region's identity. Rhetoric isn't likely to get him far once people stop getting paid. No matter what he is saying publicly, privately he has to be feeling a lot of pressure to avoid a shutdown; certainly one that becomes prolonged.

     
    I mentioned it before but Johnson is in a tougher spot than seems to be getting attention. Barksdale AFB is an enormous part of his district's economy and a defining part of the region's identity. Rhetoric isn't likely to get him far once people stop getting paid. No matter what he is saying publicly, privately he has to be feeling a lot of pressure to avoid a shutdown; certainly one that becomes prolonged.


    I doubt that matters much to him. He’s heavy MAGA Christian theocrat regressive. And he’s speaker. He’s bulletproof in a deep red district - regardless of whether he brings any harm to the district. They routinely advance tactics and objectives that are contrary to their local interests, it’s not something their constituents seem to care about. Theirs is a broad culture war for the supposed/concocted fate of the soul of their nation. Who cares if contractors at the local base are laid off?
     
    I doubt that matters much to him. He’s heavy MAGA Christian theocrat regressive. And he’s speaker. He’s bulletproof in a deep red district - regardless of whether he brings any harm to the district. They routinely advance tactics and objectives that are contrary to their local interests, it’s not something their constituents seem to care about. Theirs is a broad culture war for the supposed/concocted fate of the soul of their nation. Who cares if contractors at the local base are laid off?

    I think that's true up to a point, but things get real in a hurry when people aren't getting paid or lose access to benefits, and that's going to be a lot of people in his district. Especially if the Senate pushes for a resolution and it's a Republican House standing in the way.

    Not that I have any kind of faith in Johnson, but I think he wants to avoid a shutdown in a way that other Republicans in the speakership might not have. (That isn't to say he will avoid it.)
     
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    I can’t believe Democrats are voting for that - it’s clearly a trap. They’re going to regret it in February.

    If Johnson pulls that off, good for him. It’s an obvious setup. He’s separating out the stuff that is harmful at the polls when it shuts down, so they can advance that in January and then dig in on all the other stuff. If it shuts down because Democrats won’t agree to massive cuts, so be it.
     
    I’m surprised that Johnson was willing to support a clean continuing resolution, but based on the comments from the far right, they will probably move to vacate him if he supports another clean budget resolution. The timing of the next 2 budget resolutions will be interesting, because he could get vacated immediately after the budget resolution of the “controversial” agencies. He will probably survive the passing of the uncontroversial budget, but I can’t imagine that he can pass a budget for the controversial agencies, without draconian cuts or wack policy riders, which won’t pass the senate nor president, so that would also cause an almost immediate government shutdown.
     

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