Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (4 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[bdb13]

I would think the terms of the tentative deal Russia and Ukraine agreed to back in February were good parameters. But according to reports Boris Johnson pressed Zelensky to not accept the deal. The West doesn't want this war to end.

I would say a lot has changed since February and so should the terms any such previous tentative agreements.

 

[UriUT]

I would say a lot has changed since February and so should the terms any such previous agreements.

A lot has changed! There was a story that came out within the last month or two about the negotiations leading up to the Russian invasion. A very high ranking Putin official had agreed with Zelensky that supposedly would prevent the war. Putin had pressed that Ukraine cannot join NATO. Zelensky agreed on that point officially. This official presented it to Putin and a few hours later the invasion began.

Putin does not care about NATO or the Ukrainian culture/nation. That is now self evident. Also to believe that up until the Ukrainian counter-offensives that Russia sincerely wanted peace talks is a bunch of bull. Remember those sham negotiations in Belarus and then Turkey? None of them meant anything to Putin. Only till recently after it has become apparent that Russia is losing and losing dramatically has there been whispers of peace talk. Hell Putin brought it up during his annexation speech.

I find it stunningly coincidental that we now have all these Russian talking points of peace from so called people who dont read Russian propaganda. Where were all this talk 2 months ago? Even after the failed kyiv offensive...where was it? Could it be that despite such failures, Putin had hopes that the invasion may reap territory gains in the donbas-luhansk regions? Now Russia is facing a total annihilation of their army. Humiliating retreat that may offset gains made in 2014. Only facing this is there calls for peace.

Ridiculous. Simply ridiculous.

PS. This may not be appropriate. I mistakenly read too much on these atrocities by the wagner groups. What they did in Syria can best be described as one upping ISIS. Read what they did to a Syrian deserter....not for curiosity. Rather view It as a grotesque reflection on the Russian military mentality.

 

[UriUT]

This is one of those times when I think Biden made a gaffe. I don’t think he expressed himself correctly nor do I think he expressed the official view of the Administration correctly.

Trump did this practically every day, Biden does it sometimes.

I agree with this. Previous gaffes were quickly refined by staffers. This may be a message that the US will go that far to stop nuclear use.

The world cannot bow to such blackmail.

edit: I meant disagree. I don't know how far Biden will go and hope we may never get there. but to project that extreme may be needed.

 

[Lapaz]

I would think the terms of the tentative deal Russia and Ukraine agreed to back in February were good parameters. But according to reports Boris Johnson pressed Zelensky to not accept the deal. The West doesn't want this war to end.

If Ukraine accepts a deal short of getting all of their land back, then we should too, because ituyjeor peiptjat are dying, but our goal should be to support Ukraine to get Russia out of Ukraine.

 

[efil4]

This just simply makes zero sense. And it completely ignores that Zelensky pulled the plug himself on the “peace” talks in light of revealed Russian atrocities. I am going from memory, so feel free to check me on this.

You want reasons - why would UK, Europe, US want this war to go on? It makes no sense economically, it’s putting Europe in an energy bind. It’s costing the US billions of dollars when we are having an issue with inflation. The only reason is that Putin has shown himself to be a dangerous man with delusions of building the USSR back to empire status. This will involve several sovereign countries who have no wish to join a new Soviet bloc. He shouldn’t be appeased, he should be stopped.

It’s probably not a good idea to take an article from Pravda at face value, SFL. I know you get tired of us (me, lol) maligning your sources but damn, at least acknowledge that your sources are sketchy. The man you quote is also very partisan against Biden, from an ideological perspective. It’s important to know where your sources are coming from. This man would never say anything good about Biden, ever. He writes for a magazine very far left, unlikely to criticize Russia or Socialism ever.

Nevermind the sentence immediately before the highlighted section. Putin had NO interest in any compromise that left Ukraine as a sovereign state.

Negotiators for Russia did not have the final say. Putin does. Furthermore, Russian tactics include talks for cease fires only to allow time to regroup, reasses and begin again.

If anyone thinks that the West wanted this war to drag on for as long as it had, is diving so deep, they are losing sunlight.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

Do you think anything you listed is worth risking nuclear war or World War 3?

I don't think Ukraine should have to give their land to Russia, but whatever can be done to avert a possible nuclear war should be on the table. Unfortunately you have to deal with nuclear armed countries differently.

Look, the only one threatening nuclear war is Putin and I highly suggest, for everyone's sake, he not start one.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

I would think the terms of the tentative deal Russia and Ukraine agreed to back in February were good parameters. But according to reports Boris Johnson pressed Zelensky to not accept the deal. The West doesn't want this war to end.

Here comes the naive Rand Paul worldview that America can live in isolation and we shouldn't spend money on foreign wars. It's true, some foreign wars, e.g., Afghanistan and Iraq, are huge waste of money. This one, however, isn't. That you can't see the distinction between Putin and Sadam Hussein/the Taliban is mind boggling.

 

[MT15]

And this is certainly hypocritical:

 

[SaintForLife]

Why is that?

It's all about regime change. They want Putin out of power no matter what's the cost.

Biden stands by saying Putin shouldn't stay in power: 'Iâm not walking anything back'

"But it doesnât mean we have a fundamental policy to do anything to take Putin down in any way," the president told reporters Monday amid criticism of his remark over the weekend.

www-nbcnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org

If it ever gets to the point where removal or killing of Putin is imminent, who doesn't think Putin would use nuclear weapons?

 

[SaintForLife]

This is one of those times when I think Biden made a gaffe. I don’t think he expressed himself correctly nor do I think he expressed the official view of the Administration correctly.

Trump did this practically every day, Biden does it sometimes.

That's not a gaffe or anything close to a gaffe.

HHS claims this is just a coincidence:

US purchases $290 million of drug for use in radiological and nuclear emergencies

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) says it has spent $290 million on a drug to treat radiation sickness in the event of a nuclear emergency. The HHS Administration for Str…

thehill-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[SaintForLife]

Also-the US is letting Russia know in no uncertain terms that use of a tactical nuke will not be acceptable. If they decide to use a tactical nuke, the US Air Force will take out the rest of their forces in Ukraine, probably in a day. There won’t be an all out nuclear war. IMO, anyway, but I’m not the only one who thinks this way.

What we cannot allow to happen is the normalization of use of tactical nuclear weapons. This leads eventually to another World War, IMO.

Appeasing Putin now, when his army has been exposed as weak and riddled with corruption is just crazy talk. It comes from people who support Putin and authoritarianism over democracy.

Also-I have read somewhere that there are back channels of communication between American generals and Russian generals. I would imagine there are fairly common communications. For all we know Biden’s talk of nuclear war wasn’t a gaffe but was part of letting Russia know we are taking the threat to use a nuke very seriously.

There's no way to guarantee being able to contain anything in war. What if he has nukes hidden in other areas or even near or in the US? What if other countries somehow get involved? What if Putin knows someone is about to capture or kill him and he's cornered?

 

[SystemShock]

There's no way to guarantee being able to contain anything in war. What if he has nukes hidden in other areas or even near or in the US? What if other countries somehow get involved? What if Putin knows someone is about to capture or kill him and he's cornered?

Nukes in the U.S. ... where? Florida? Texas?

So what do you propose? The U.S. does nothing until Russia takes control of Europe? When the Russian shipyards start going up in Cuba? Silos in Nicaragua?

 

[MT15]

There's no way to guarantee being able to contain anything in war. What if he has nukes hidden in other areas or even near or in the US? What if other countries somehow get involved? What if Putin knows someone is about to capture or kill him and he's cornered?

Putin can’t launch by himself. You can what if all day long. This war exists because of Putin, he invaded. He is targeting civilians, he is responsible for massacres in land he has taken.

We shouldn’t appease him. We also shouldn’t be listening to his propaganda tools in the US and/or around the world.

The people you are quoting want to give Ukrainian territory to Russia. Heck, you want to give Ukrainian territory to Russia. For the life of me I don’t know why you want to do that. I know why the people you listen to want to do that - they are Russian assets, either willing or unwittingly.

Why do you?

 

[CoolBrees]

Read a history book, Jeebus.

Capitulation to Fascist Dictators has never worked. Like ever. Never.

The inability to see the forest from the trees is astonishing.

First, are you proposing we cut off sending arms to Ukraine - which they use to defend themselves from an unprovoked invader - unless they sit down to talks?

That is worse than interfering: that’s extortion.

So as long as they are defending their sovereignty- fork yeah give them weapons. Like I would hope we would do with any nation willing to defy tyranny.

If Ukraine agrees to the preliminary terms (that Putin bombed a refugee road during the first two hours of the ceasefire) then they would be ceding territory they have already liberated.

And I find it absolutely hilarious how former Reaganites are howling over a proxy war against Russia. One the Kremlin looks like an absolute clown car. This was your collective wet dream for the last 50 years - what changed?

 

[MT15]

It's all about regime change. They want Putin out of power no matter what's the cost.

Biden stands by saying Putin shouldn't stay in power: 'Iâm not walking anything back'

"But it doesnât mean we have a fundamental policy to do anything to take Putin down in any way," the president told reporters Monday amid criticism of his remark over the weekend.

www-nbcnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org

If it ever gets to the point where removal or killing of Putin is imminent, who doesn't think Putin would use nuclear weapons?

Do you think Putin should stay in power? After his bloody invasion of one of his neighbors and all the war crimes? Evidently you do. The question is why?

 

[MT15]

This is just disgraceful. This man is a traitor.

 

[MT15]

That's not a gaffe or anything close to a gaffe.

HHS claims this is just a coincidence:

US purchases $290 million of drug for use in radiological and nuclear emergencies

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) says it has spent $290 million on a drug to treat radiation sickness in the event of a nuclear emergency. The HHS Administration for Str…

thehill-com.cdn.ampproject.org

Tom Nichols agrees with you. He says it’s not a gaffe and that it’s important to send a decisive signal to Putin to warn him against using a tactical weapon. So maybe I was wrong here.

Also, if there is some ulterior motive for this purchase, why announce it? I am willing to bet they’ve been working on this plan since Biden took office because it is a new program where the vendors stock the drug and rotate out the stock as it expires automatically. This is an upgrade over the way we have stockpiled disaster supplies in the past. Remember how the stockpile of respirators were in poor repair and some were outdated? I do.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

It's all about regime change. They want Putin out of power no matter what's the cost.

Biden stands by saying Putin shouldn't stay in power: 'Iâm not walking anything back'

"But it doesnât mean we have a fundamental policy to do anything to take Putin down in any way," the president told reporters Monday amid criticism of his remark over the weekend.

www-nbcnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org

If it ever gets to the point where removal or killing of Putin is imminent, who doesn't think Putin would use nuclear weapons?

Let me just say I think you're a bit confused and leave it at that.