Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (4 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[UriUT]

Yeah, it's pretty clear the intelligence on both Ukraine and Russia were way off. Which honestly strikes me as surprising because we've been training Ukranians for years. Part of it was the barometer used was probably based on what happened in 2014. The difference here is that Russia was attempting a much wider scale invasion now than back then, so the Ukranians are putting up a much bigger fight. I think they were willing to let Russia take some territory before, not so much anymore. At this point, it's possible Russia may end up leaving with less territory than what they started with pre-invasion.

Zelensky stated that he considers pre invasion borders as a success. As to the future I haven’t seen a single expert be certain what will happen. Not many can ensure ukraines security and they will not trust russia. My opinion is that they need to gain pre 2014 borders and have water and gas reserves access. This gives them economic might to fuel their security. Zelensky though has ruled that out. He does not want to risk 50k Ukrainian lives.

 

[DaveXA]

Zelensky stated that he considers pre invasion borders as a success. As to the future I haven’t seen a single expert be certain what will happen. Not many can ensure ukraines security and they will not trust russia. My opinion is that they need to gain pre 2014 borders and have water and gas reserves access. This gives them economic might to fuel their security. Zelensky though has ruled that out. He does not want to risk 50k Ukrainian lives.

I think it will depend on how difficult it will be to get the Russians out of the Eastern territories. I'm not necessarily expecting them to get to 2014 borders, but if they get the Russians on the run and make a good push, it could be possible if they get enough momentum.

 

[UriUT]

I think it will depend on how difficult it will be to get the Russians out of the Eastern territories. I'm not necessarily expecting them to get to 2014 borders, but if they get the Russians on the run and make a good push, it could be possible if they get enough momentum.

Here is one Russian military expert’s analysis. Ukraine isn’t out of the woods. Not defeat like losing Kyiv, but less leverage in peace negotiation and possibly lose the jfo. Gen hertling still believes Ukraine has the advantage based on the sustained damage from the Kyiv offensive and the distance to redeploy. And based on reported Ukrainian warning that civilians evacuate, that battle is looming soon.



Edit….the us expedited deliveries of more javelins yesterday I think bc of this battle I believe.

 

[DaveXA]

Here is one Russian military expert’s analysis. Ukraine isn’t out of the woods. Not defeat like losing Kyiv, but less leverage in peace negotiation and possibly lose the jfo. Gen hertling still believes Ukraine has the advantage based on the sustained damage from the Kyiv offensive and the distance to redeploy. And based on reported Ukrainian warning that civilians evacuate, that battle is looming soon.



Edit….the us expedited deliveries of more javelins yesterday I think bc of this battle I believe.

They'll need a whole lot more than javelins if they're gonna sustain an effective counterattack. They need tanks, missiles and BTRs/APCs as well as mobile artillery if they're going to make a real push, along with a significant number of infantry to support the vehicles. A common misconception is that tanks are effective on their own. They can be in some situations. But, they perform much better when supported by infantry, and even better with CAS.

I'm convinced Ukraine cannot win without significant control over the skies. CAS is crucial for recon and hitting difficult to reach defensive positions. That's really the biggest question mark to me, and I worry the delayed response to Unkraine's request for planes is going to cost them the ability to win in the east.

 

[Lapaz]

They'll need a whole lot more than javelins if they're gonna sustain an effective counterattack. They need tanks, missiles and BTRs/APCs as well as mobile artillery if they're going to make a real push, along with a significant number of infantry to support the vehicles. A common misconception is that tanks are effective on their own. They can be in some situations. But, they perform much better when supported by infantry, and even better with CAS.

I'm convinced Ukraine cannot win without significant control over the skies. CAS is crucial for recon and hitting difficult to reach defensive positions. That's really the biggest question mark to me, and I worry the delayed response to Unkraine's request for planes is going to cost them the ability to win in the east.

I've heard that they were working on getting them S-300s, which have much more range than Stingers, and weaponized drones. I think if they can get enough of those, plus ammunition, food and water, then they can beat the Russians.

 

[UriUT]

They'll need a whole lot more than javelins if they're gonna sustain an effective counterattack. They need tanks, missiles and BTRs/APCs as well as mobile artillery if they're going to make a real push, along with a significant number of infantry to support the vehicles. A common misconception is that tanks are effective on their own. They can be in some situations. But, they perform much better when supported by infantry, and even better with CAS.

I'm convinced Ukraine cannot win without significant control over the skies. CAS is crucial for recon and hitting difficult to reach defensive positions. That's really the biggest question mark to me, and I worry the delayed response to Unkraine's request for planes is going to cost them the ability to win in the east.

I get that. And I believe ukraine received the tanks from Czech yesterday. Germany supposedly offered some non tank armor as well. Australia sent bushmaster whatever that is. The us confirmed switchblades have arrived. What I believe the javelins was expedited is bc of this discussed by gen hertling.



And as for the migs, one has to wonder its effectiveness in the presence of s400 systems that can be stationed in russia, Crimea etc and still have effective range well into Ukraine. And I understand your views. Amb mcfaul has argued it; stating that Russia effectively stated it will only use nukes in existential cases. And migs will not change that equation. I'm uncertain on the psych evaluation but will lean on the pentagons opinion. It appears that the administration, including sec blinken was on board with that plan to transfer migs, even giving the green light. Something changed that thinking and I will defer to that.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[Lapaz]

I think it will depend on how difficult it will be to get the Russians out of the Eastern territories. I'm not necessarily expecting them to get to 2014 borders, but if they get the Russians on the run and make a good push, it could be possible if they get enough momentum.

The problem is that some of the old borders actually contained populations that feel more Russian than Ukrainian. The borders are somewhat artificial, so I don't think the old borders need to be the goal. The goal needs to be to keep their resources, areas that want to be Ukrainian, and security. I think Ukraine will need to be better armed in the future to deter another attack. I also think Ukraine will have a renaissance after the war. International aid will pour in to help them rebuild, and they could become a democratic powerhouse.

 

[Lapaz]

This needs to be in Democratic ads. It is truly unbelievable that even at this stage there are still Republicans that seem to sympathize with Russians.

 

[coldseat]

The Americans that vote for these people to represent them must be as disgusting and pathetic as they are.

 

[UriUT]

The problem is that some of the old borders actually contained populations that feel more Russian than Ukrainian. The borders are somewhat artificial, so I don't think the old borders need to be the goal. The goal needs to be to keep their resources, areas that want to be Ukrainian, and security. I think Ukraine will need to be better armed in the future to deter another attack. I also think Ukraine will have a renaissance after the war. International aid will pour in to help them rebuild, and they could become a democratic powerhouse.

The problem with this sentiment is that we have to abide by russia's referendum. Tge one after they invaded with little green men and then bussing Russians into Crimean before the vote. Afterward they allowed russians to settle in Crimea. They are doing that now in metilopol(sp?...sorry to lazy yo find a map for the correct spelling). But I agree and have seen by analyst universally that Crimea is practically out of reach for Ukraine.

 

[DaveXA]

This needs to be in Democratic ads. It is truly unbelievable that even at this stage there are still Republicans that seem to sympathize with Russians.

I'd call them Russian sympathizers and Commies every chance I get.

 

[J-DONK]

The problem with this sentiment is that we have to abide by russia's referendum. Tge one after they invaded with little green men and then bussing Russians into Crimean before the vote. Afterward they allowed russians to settle in Crimea. They are doing that now in metilopol(sp?...sorry to lazy yo find a map for the correct spelling). But I agree and have seen by analyst universally that Crimea is practically out of reach for Ukraine.

I mean these "traditional Russian" areas were created via genocide of Ukrainians under Stalin, and bringing in Russians to occupy eastern Ukraine. I really don't like this reasoning of ethnicity dictating borders. We wouldn't cede land on our border with Mexico because it's predominantly Hispanic.

Also, only a handful of countries recognize Crimea as Russian. The U.N. formally declared the election illegal.

 

[zztop]

Not sure what this means in the long term

U.S. Congress votes to strip Russia of 'most favored' trade status, ban its oil

The U.S. Congress voted to impose further economic pain on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, passing one measure to remove its "most favored nation" trade status and another to ban oil imports.

www.reuters.com

The U.S. Senate imposed further economic pain on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, voting unanimously to remove "most favored nation" trade status for Russia and its close ally Belarus in one bill and banning oil imports in another.

The Senate voted 100-0 in favor of the measure removing Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status. Shortly afterward, it backed the energy measure, also by a 100-0 tally.

 

[DaveXA]

Not sure what this means in the long term

U.S. Congress votes to strip Russia of 'most favored' trade status, ban its oil

The U.S. Congress voted to impose further economic pain on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, passing one measure to remove its "most favored nation" trade status and another to ban oil imports.

www.reuters.com

The U.S. Senate imposed further economic pain on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, voting unanimously to remove "most favored nation" trade status for Russia and its close ally Belarus in one bill and banning oil imports in another.

The Senate voted 100-0 in favor of the measure removing Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status. Shortly afterward, it backed the energy measure, also by a 100-0 tally.

Well, good. 100-0 makes that easy.

 

[UriUT]

So this topic can go into the qanon or media thread but there s some crazy stuff going on there.

Here is a link to the transcript of an episode of this American life on Putin back in 2017. Apparently they have updated the transcript with some current interviews...but I digress. This is when I first heard of the apartment building bombings in russia that lead to the 2nd Chechen war. It gives insight into Russians thoughts; it discusses sovereign democracy; and most relevant to the q phenomenon is the way Putin manipulates the media for control.

614: The Other Mr. President - This American Life

www.thisamericanlife.org

Sovereign democracy isnt democracy as one may have guessed. It is an illusion that there is one and how Putin accomplishes this is to allow opposition. He would allow demonstrations for example but it will be tightly controlled. Opposition parties would exist but the issue they advocate would be controlled and dictated by Putin. Here is an example from the story. Putin decided that governors would no longer be elected but instead be appointed. He allowed for discussions and debate but the reality is that the decision has already been finalized. And if something comes out like his fsb sabateurs were caught attempting to bomb apartments, he would not deny that it happened. Well in this case he assasinated the commission that investigated this incident. Still, he doesnt deny that the bombing attempt occurred. Instead, and this why I see a similarity to the q anons, he inject possibilities...conspiracies. So much so that the real truth is difficult to find in the avalanches of conspiracies.

So when Surkov says everything is controlled in a construct, what he's actually saying is not a confession. It's a piece of psychological propaganda to say, so there's no point struggling for anything. Don't even try to do any of your silly protest movements. So in a way you're killing-- if you tell people that everything is a conspiracy, it doesn't lead people to revolt. It leads people to go--
-

Sean Cole​

Give up.

Peter Pomerantsev​

--well, then I might as well give up. Yes. But again, we might be over-interpreting here. But it's a book, so we're allowed to.

And apart from the q anon stuff, the russians are still doing it now.



Reviewing of the bucha war crime we see that the russians denied it happened. They also said it happened but it wasnt during Russian occupation. They even used the crisis actor conspiracy. But the most ridiculous is that Biden referred to Putin as a butcher. So eerily so that the crimes occurred in bucha, suspiciously similar sounding to butcher. Therefore it was planned. It was the brits that did it.

I find the advent of conspiracy in politics a bit alarming and watching that Nicole wallace interview of julia ioffe reminded me of that this american life story.

 

[zztop]

Missile kills at least 52 at crowded Ukrainian train station

Ukrainian authorities say a missile hit a train station where thousands of Ukrainians had gathered. At least 52 people died in an attack on a crowd of mostly women and children trying to flee a looming Russian offensive in the country’s east.

apnews.com

The regional governor of Donetsk, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said that 39 people were killed and 87 wounded. The office of Ukraine’s prosecutor-general said about 4,000 civilians were in and around the station, most of them women and children heeding calls to leave the area before Russia launches a full-scale offensive.

 

[MT15]

Maybe the truth is getting into Russia after all: