Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

This is what we get when we focus on merit??? This clown, Hegseth, isn't qualified to run a recruitment station, much less the Defense Department.

 

[DaveXA]

This is what we get when we focus on merit??? This clown, Hegseth, isn't qualified to run a recruitment station, much less the Defense Department.

I hate that I can't say what I want to say about that guy.

 

[MT15]

This must be what Tom Nichols’ post was about.

 

[Optimus Prime]

This is what we get when we focus on merit??? This clown, Hegseth, isn't qualified to run a recruitment station, much less the Defense Department.

How long did that go on?

 

[Dragon]

Something to think about

Appeasement at Munich​

As American and Russian negotiators converge today in Munich for a major security conference, carrying in their briefcases various plans about Ukraine without Ukraine, the temptation is to recall another meeting in that city. Appeasement of the aggressor seems to be the plan now, as it was with Germany in 1938.

But the resemblances between that moment and this go deeper, and it worth pausing to consider them. The symmetry between Germany-Czechoslovakia in 1938 and Russia-Ukraine in 2022 is uncanny, and pausing for a moment on the resemblances might help us to take a broader view of today. We are prisoners, now more than ever, of the rumors and disinformation and emotions of the moment. History can give us at least a calmer perspective.
And so consider:
Hitler denied the legitimacy of the Czechoslovak state. As German chancellor, he systematically denied that it had a right to exist. Although its leaders were democratically elected, he claimed that they had no right to rule. Because its people spoke various languages, he claimed that there was no such thing as a body of Czechoslovak citizens. Hitler argued that Czechoslovakia itself was artificial, the result of a historical turning point that never should have happened, the settlement after the First World War. He claimed that the existence of national minority gave him the right to intervene in Czechoslovak politics. In May 1938, he ordered his army to make preparations for a quick strike on Czechoslovakia. He also activiated his agents inside the country. On September 12th Hitler gave a rousing speech to Germans about the entirely fictional extermination of the German minority in Czechoslovakia. We know what comes next: Britain and France, together with Germany and Italy, decided in Munich on September 30th that Czechoslovakia should cede crucial border territories to Germany. These were the most defensible parts of the country. Czechoslovakia’s leaders, although they were not consulted, chose to accept the partition of their country.

To see where we are now, it might help, though, to imagine how things might have gone differently. And so, a counterfactual paragraph, in italics: Czechoslovak’s leaders chose to resist....

https://open.substack.com/pub/snyde...h?r=3lefz2&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

 

[MT15]

Posted this in the other thread. Forgot we discussed his performance here. What a clown.

Known alcoholic who promised he had quit drinking during his confirmation hearing drinks Scotch while taking questions. Good job, GOP! I remember @Sendai saying this guy was qualified to be Secretary of Defense.

 

[MT15]

 

[efil4]

100 percent

Ukraine countering Trump proposal with inclusion of EU in the minerals deal was the first salvo.
US rejected outright.


We now know US wanted 50% of all mineral rights. I suspect the counter by Ukraine was for much less and it ran thru EU, which Trump couldn't take.
I suspect if Trump continues to demand 50% and exclusive rights, there will be no deal.

Trump is now in a trick bag. The only leverage he has is to stop support for Ukraine. Doing so will reveal his true agenda. Carve up Ukraine for he and Putin.

Brilliant move by Ukraine. They aren't stupid.

 

[Dragon]

100 percent

Ukraine countering Trump proposal with inclusion of EU in the minerals deal was the first salvo.
US rejected outright.


We now know US wanted 50% of all mineral rights. I suspect the counter by Ukraine was for much less and it ran thru EU, which Trump couldn't take.
I suspect if Trump continues to demand 50% and exclusive rights, there will be no deal.

Trump is now in a trick bag. The only leverage he has is to stop support for Ukraine. Doing so will reveal his true agenda. Carve up Ukraine for he and Putin.

Brilliant move by Ukraine. They aren't stupid.

That is outright blackmail and I am sure that it would be Trump and Musk benefitting from that "proposal" - not the US

 

[faceman]

This is what we get when we focus on merit??? This clown, Hegseth, isn't qualified to run a recruitment station, much less the Defense Department.

My Senator Roger Wicker said he was disturbed by Hegseth's "rookie" mistake. Needless to say he's getting blasted
on his FB page. It was his committee that gave him the position. Wicker knows he isn't qualified. He could have done
what's right. The same with Kennedy and RFK Jr.,but both bowed to cheeto.

Republican senator "disturbed" by Pete Hegseth's "rookie mistake"

Senator Roger Wicker criticized Hegseth's comments about it being "unrealistic" for Ukraine to gain back its pre-war borders.

www.newsweek.com

 

[DaveXA]

My Senator Roger Wicker said he was disturbed by Hegseth's "rookie" mistake. Needless to say he's getting blasted
on his FB page. It was his committee that gave him the position. Wicker knows he isn't qualified. He could have done
what's right. The same with Kennedy and RFK Jr.,but both bowed to cheeto.

Republican senator "disturbed" by Pete Hegseth's "rookie mistake"

Senator Roger Wicker criticized Hegseth's comments about it being "unrealistic" for Ukraine to gain back its pre-war borders.

www.newsweek.com

When you let a cheeto run the country, this is what you get.

 

[efil4]

That is outright blackmail and I am sure that it would be Trump and Musk benefitting from that "proposal" - not the US

It is blackmail and Trump don't care about optics. But make no mistake, he puts others in charge of carrying his water, so when it spills, he can't be blamed.

It's been his tack his entire life.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

Dude is doing his people proud! He has rallied the global democracies while the sole democratic republic that is a "superpower" has become a global JOKE!

 

[efil4]

Dude is doing his people proud! He has rallied the global democracies while the sole democratic republic that is a "superpower" has become a global JOKE!

Reports Friday were that Trump and Putin set meeting in Saudi Arabia for peace talks. Ukraine was not invited initially.

Well guess who just showed up in UAE?



Dude is a pure leader.


He is there to discuss getting captured UAF returned, but the optics are great.

 

[efil4]

That is outright blackmail and I am sure that it would be Trump and Musk benefitting from that "proposal" - not the US

The Telegraph obtained a copy- here are the terms

pure extortion. Thats really the only way to describe what i just read.

I am ashamed right now that my POTUS et al had the gall to even draft this and put in the hands of another countrys President to sign.

Thread by @clarenafo on Thread Reader App

@clarenafo: The Telegraph has got its hands on a copy of the contract that the US tried to make Zelenskyy sign last week. Here are the terms that were proposed. They amounted to US economic colonisation of...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[efil4]

The Telegraph obtained a copy- here are the terms

pure extortion. Thats really the only way to describe what i just read.

I am ashamed right now that my POTUS et al had the gall to even draft this and put in the hands of another countrys President to sign.

Thread by @clarenafo on Thread Reader App

@clarenafo: The Telegraph has got its hands on a copy of the contract that the US tried to make Zelenskyy sign last week. Here are the terms that were proposed. They amounted to US economic colonisation of...…

threadreaderapp.com

oh yeah- China has entered the chat



If i were Zelensky, im contacting Xi to gauge interest from China in partnering to end war. They have more than enough pull to reign in Putin. They can take 1/4 of the deal we originally proposed with even less of the "extortion demands" etc. That would leave Trump, the MASTER of negotiations, with absolutely no leverage and the THREAT of losing out to what Republicans perceive as the greatest threat to US.

There would be no spinning this loss.

Things are going to get quite interesting. Ukraine is probably already "Fact finding" thru back channels with China.

Remarkable - Trump views Europe as financial pariahs, and here comes China flattering Europe with kind words and affirmation. Timing is not coincidence.

 

[MT15]

Simpletons. We have a bunch of simpletons in charge. Led by a mentally ill toddler.

 

[superchuck500]

Without Ukraine present, US and Russia lay “groundwork” for “historic investment” in Ukraine.