Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[brandon]

@SaintForLife says something stupid.

Someone points out that it’s stupid.

@SaintForLife responds by posting an unrelated Twitter article.

Repeat.

 

[SaintForLife]

@SaintForLife says something stupid.

Someone points out that it’s stupid.

@SaintForLife responds by posting an unrelated Twitter article.

Repeat.

We've been over this multiple times. I'm not going to respond to people here who constantly insult me. Did you think calling me a racist, Nazi supporter, etc was going to get me to respond to you?

 

[DaveXA]

 

[Lapaz]

You act like Putin is the new Hitler and he's going to take over all of Europe.

Putin has made no secret that he yearns for the USSR. He will keep taking whatever he can as long as we allow it. Ukraine is mineral rich and will make them stronger. Furthermore the message to other would-be conquerers will be clear. If he takes Ukraine, he will have defeated the West. He will become a hero in his country. He will become more defiant. Nothing good will come from Russia conquering Ukraine.

 

[SaintForLife]

Putin has made no secret that he yearns for the USSR. He will keep taking whatever he can as long as we allow it. Ukraine is mineral rich and will make them stronger. Furthermore the message to other would-be conquerers will be clear. If he takes Ukraine, he will have defeated the West. He will become a hero in his country. He will become more defiant. Nothing good will come from Russia conquering Ukraine.

He's never attacked a NATO country. What makes you think he starts now?

 

[Lapaz]

KYIV — Wayward entrepreneur Elon Musk’s latest pronouncements regarding the war in Ukraine set teeth on edge, as he warned that even though Moscow has “no chance” of conquering all of Ukraine, “the longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnipro, which is tough to overcome.”

“However, if the war lasts long enough, Odesa will fall too,” he cautioned.

With a history of urging Ukraine to agree to territorial concessions — and his opposition to the $60 billion U.S. military aid package snarled on Capitol Hill amid partisan wrangling — Musk isn’t Ukraine’s favorite commentator, to say the least. And his remarks received predictable pushback.

But the billionaire entrepreneur’s forecast isn’t actually all that different from the dire warnings Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made in the last few days. According to Zelenskyy, unless the stalled multibillion-dollar package is approved soon, his forces will have to “go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps.” He also warned that some major cities could be at risk of falling.

Obviously, Zelenskyy’s warnings are part of a broad diplomatic effort to free up the military aid his forces so desperately need and have been short of for months — everything from 155-millimeter artillery shells to Patriot air-defense systems and drones. But the sad truth is that even if the package is approved by the U.S. Congress, a massive resupply may not be enough to prevent a major battlefield upset.

And such a setback, especially in the middle of election campaigns in America and Europe, could very well revive Western pressure for negotiations that would obviously favor Russia, leaving the Kremlin free to revive the conflict at a future time of its choosing.

Essentially, everything now depends on where Russia will decide to target its strength in an offensive that’s expected to launch this summer. In a pre-offensive pummeling — stretching from Kharkiv and Sumy in the north to Odesa in the south — Russia’s missile and drone strikes have widely surged in recent weeks, targeting infrastructure and making it hard to guess where it will mount its major push.

And according to high-ranking Ukrainian military officers who served under General Valery Zaluzhny — the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces until he was replaced in February — the military picture is grim.

The officers said there’s a great risk of the front lines collapsing wherever Russian generals decide to focus their offensive. Moreover, thanks to a much greater weight in numbers and the guided aerial bombs that have been smashing Ukrainian positions for weeks now, Russia will likely be able to “penetrate the front line and to crash it in some parts,” they said.

They spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely.

“There’s nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us. We don’t have those technologies, and the West doesn’t have them as well in sufficient numbers,” one of the top-ranking military sources told POLITICO.

According to him, it is only Ukrainian grit and resilience as well as errors by Russian commanders that may now alter the grim dynamics. Mistakes like the one made on Saturday, when Russia launched one of the largest tank assaults on Ukrainian positions since its full-scale invasion began, only to have the column smashed by Ukraine’s 25th Brigade, which took out a dozen tanks and 8 infantry fighting vehicles — a third of the column’s strength.

....So, Musk may not be too wide of the mark after all.

Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing

According to high-ranking Ukrainian officers, the military picture is grim and Russian generals could find success wherever they decide to focus their upcoming offensive.

www.politico.eu

I think this is BS. If we supply aircraft, aid defense and munitions, Russia will never advance. Ukraine just need the arms to fight.

 

[brandon]

We've been over this multiple times. I'm not going to respond to people here who constantly insult me. Did you think calling me a racist, Nazi supporter, etc was going to get me to respond to you?

I know if someone called me those things, I’d sure as shirt have a response.

I’d also be able to clearly point out where they were incorrect on their assertions. I don’t much imagine you can do that.

 

[Lapaz]

He's never attacked a NATO country. What makes you think he starts now?

All Putin needs to feel emboldened to attack a NATO country is for the right US president to waffle about supporting a NATO country that may not have paid 2% of it’s GDP on defense or even pulling us out of NATO.

 

[bird]

He's never attacked a NATO country. What makes you think he starts now?

Comments from Russian officials. Look up comments regarding Poland and Kaliningrad.

 

[DaveXA]

Comments from Russian officials. Look up comments regarding Poland and Kaliningrad.

Yeah, either they mean what they say or they can't be taken seriously. Wonder which he thinks it is.

That they've never attacked a NATO country is meaningless. There were a lot of countries Hitler never attacked...until he did.

 

[SaintForLife]

All Putin needs to feel emboldened to attack a NATO country is for the right US president to waffle about supporting a NATO country that may not have paid 2% of it’s GDP on defense or even pulling us out of NATO.

Trump criticized NATO and the countries who weren't paying their fair share while he was President and Putin didn't attack a NATO country.

 

[SaintForLife]

I remember when Rand Paul was mocked by Democrats and establishment Republicans for wanting the Afghanistan Inspector General to be transfered to cover Ukraine. They don't want the corruption exposed.

 

[bird]

I remember when Rand Paul was mocked by Democrats and establishment Republicans for wanting the Afghanistan Inspector General to be transfered to cover Ukraine. They don't want the corruption exposed.

Overspending in war? Who would have thought?

 

[SaintForLife]

Overspending in war? Who would have thought?

It's called corruption.

 

[bird]

It's called corruption.

No. It is called not uncommon in the military bureaucracy.

 

[MT15]

It's called corruption.

You don’t care about corruption. Quit trying to BS us.

 

[SaintForLife]

No. It is called not uncommon in the military bureaucracy.

The same military bureaucracy that has failed an audit 6 years in a row? I'm not sure why you would defend their corruption and wasting our money.

 

[efil4]

The same military bureaucracy that has failed an audit 6 years in a row? I'm not sure why you would defend their corruption and wasting our money.

They not wasting my money.

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