Election Night (+4) in America - Result: Biden Elected President (6 Viewers)

[GrandAdmiral]

I'll probably be flipping between CNN, NBC, and probably PBS if they have coverage.

What station you got?

 

[B4YOU]

Me and I know one other person said Biden would lose any state he didn’t have at least a 4 pt aggregate polling lead in. Right now it’s shaping up almost exactly that way, with the exception of Georgia.

Pollsters need to fix their models to account for rural white America. They are motivated and will continue to be so. They are being under counted by as much as 5 pts.

Yep. I started out at +5 but once I saw MIV rejection rates were low I moved it to +4 and posted a map on Sunday. I also used RCP numbers because 538 seemed to undervalue R-leaning polls that did well in 2016.

Polls don’t reach Trump voters. Those voters also lie to polls. Anything using “favorable” or “approval” is off because I’m 2016 his rating for those were 10 below his victory numbers. They don’t all “like” him but he is the only one that is going to let them be themselves. He is a reflection of those voters and will encourage their worst behaviors. Trump gives them a black and white world while Ds exist in the gray. Joe doesn’t explain nuances well.

 

[wardorican]

Ok, check my math... if Biden pulls off Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan, he has 270 EV and wins, right?

 

[bdb13]

Well hey again

 

[bdb13]

Ok, check my math... if Biden pulls off Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan, he has 270 EV and wins, right?

Yes

 

[wardorican]

The remaining vote is mostly mail in from Fulton and Dekalb County. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Biden get 80% of the remaining vote in Georgia. I think he pulls it off, narrowly.

Maybe, I just see anything over 60-70% as a high amount. Mail in ballots may be that skewed, but I just don't count on it.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

7,000 people in Tennessee apparently voted for Kanye.

 

[Maxp]

Maybe, I just see anything over 60-70% as a high amount. Mail in ballots may be that skewed, but I just don't count on it.

I believe I heard mail in ballots were coming in at 80% or greater in Michigan. Different state, but still.

 

[Heathen]

Around 400k estimated votes left in Ga and Biden down around 105k

 

[JRad]

7,000 people in Tennessee apparently voted for Kanye.

I mean it’s hard not to vote for a Birthday Party

 

[Saint by the Bay]

I mean it’s hard not to vote for a Birthday Party

People in Tennessee love cake I guess.

 

[zztop]

Bernie sure knew what he was talking about

" It could well be that at 10 o’clock on election night, Trump is winning in Michigan, he’s winning in Pennsylvania, he’s winning in Wisconsin, and he gets on the television and he says, ‘Thank you, Americans, for reelecting me. It’s all over. Have a good day.’ But then, the next day, and the day following, all of those mail-in ballots start getting counted, and it turns out that Biden has won those states, at which point Trump says, ‘See? I told you the whole thing was fraudulent. I told you those mail-in ballots were crooked. And we’re not going to leave office.’ So that is a worry that I and a lot of people have. "

 

[Maxp]

Fox News saved the country by cork blocking Trump's reerection

 

[Nebaghead]

To use a football analogy, it feels like Biden is in FG range to win the game and we are working to get it to a chip shot. If Georgia goes to Biden it will be like Kamara breaking containment and running in for a TD.

 

[DaveXA]

Fox News saved the country by cork blocking Trump's reerection

Lol, indeed. I kind of think some of the Fox execs are secretly hoping Biden wins because that would be a boon to FNC. Nothing like a good antagonist to get eyeballs glued to the screen.

 

[Ayo]

Do you think someone other than Trump could have such a massive turnout among rural white Americans?

this was the first comment out of my mouth this morning

I told martha that I couldn’t think of a right politician that would drive people out and to the polls. A charismatic demagogue like trump is appealing but rare. Maybe there is someone there I don’t know and will emerge.

but now that the bar has been set for someone in the vein of trump to get voters out is, I think, a problem.

is the voter turnout we are seeing a high water Mark for republicans? If so then they also need to reconcile how that gets the opposition out to vote.

personally, I think it is better if the GOP alters its messaging to be more inclusive and grow the party rather than rely on the electoral college and voter suppression and litigation and etc.

I think there is a real dilemma here.

 

[DaveXA]

Do you think someone other than Trump could have such a massive turnout among rural white Americans?

Come on ya'll are making me say it...Donald Trump, Jr.

Heck even Ivanka, but idk if she'd want to. But Jr...he's been bragging on daddy for the entire campaign.

 

[Maxp]

I am leaning towards this being a high water mark for Republican presidential candidates. We all know Biden is no Obama for the Dems and he will still probably carry the popular vote by 3 million.

 

[zztop]

I saw a couple of things:

AP Decision Desk on North Carolina:
Though Trump is correct that he held a 76,000-vote lead in the state early Wednesday, the race is too close to call and there are still about 200,000 mail-in ballots left to count. As long as those ballots are postmarked by Nov. 3, state election officials have until Nov. 12 to count them. And when it comes to mail ballots, Biden was far outperforming Trump. That means there’s a considerable number of ballots yet to be counted that could give Biden a lead.