Election Night (+4) in America - Result: Biden Elected President (20 Viewers)

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    Saint by the Bay said:
    My 15 yo is really stressed right now. The last 4 years have been so hard on them and the thought of going through more of that is hard. I’m staying positive at home (not as much online) to try and encourage them but man, it sucks knowing you can’t do anything about their pain and feelings of isolation.
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    Don't have a sad emote, be we love ya man. Hang in there.
     
    North Carolina keeps on tightening to around 1.5% difference. Really strange since Cooper is leading Forest in the governor's race by 7%. So a lot of ticket splitting.
     
    SaulGoodmanEsq said:
    All Nate Silver does is create a model based on aggregate polling. It's not a reflection that Silver's methodology is bad just that the polling is off.
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    but he does weight the polls in his aggregator

    and when he goes on the Ezra Klein show and says trafalgar primarily exists to serve Republican media but then they nail FL and he is off by 5 pts, that’s a bad look

    I think much of his arrogance is earned but there is some subjectivity to his approach that is worthy of criticism
     
    SaulGoodmanEsq said:
    All Nate Silver does is create a model based on aggregate polling. It's not a reflection that Silver's methodology is bad just that the polling is off.
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    If the polling is off twice in a row, even after adjustments were supposedly made to correct the 2016 mistakes, aggregating bad data and manipulating it in a model is completely useless. Take the numbers away and he has nothing left to offer.
     
    Ohio intrigues me. I didn’t think any polls had Biden in front there. If he holds that, that would be huge.
     
    I had some money on Biden here yesterday. I always get confused by the American method of odds but the betting agencies here publish figures based on a $1 outlay. Anyway, Biden was $1.60 yesterday (so $160 return on my $100 bet, including the stake).

    Biden has drifted way out. Trump has come in from like $2.72 to $1.50. With Brexit, the 2016 US election and the Australian federal election, in each case, involving a populist underdog candidate/cause, the betting agencies had the figures corrected the quickest. $1.50 is as good as calling it for Trump, which is making me terribly anxious.

    EDIT: Now into $1.35. Holy heck, he's going to be re-elected.
     
    Ayo said:
    but he does weight the polls in his aggregator

    and when he goes on the Ezra Klein show and says trafalgar primarily exists to serve Republican media but then they nail FL and he is off by 5 pts, that’s a bad look

    I think much of his arrogance is earned but there is some subjectivity to his approach that is worthy of criticism
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    Fair enough. Although Robert Cahaly, the head of Trafalgar, is clearly a partisan actor based on his past employment.
     

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