Does Trump ever do any jail time? (18 Viewers)

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    Optimus Prime

    Optimus Prime

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    Everything I've seen and heard says that the split second Donald Trump is no longer president there will be flood of charges waiting for him

    And if he resigns and Pence pardons him there are a ton of state charges as an understudy waiting in the wings if the fed charges can't perform

    What do you think the likelihood of there being a jail sentence?

    In every movie and TV show I've ever seen, in every political thriller I've ever read about a criminal and corrupt president there is ALWAYS some version of;

    "We can't do that to the country",

    "A trial would tear the country apart",

    "For the nation to heal we need to move on" etc.

    Would life imitate art?

    Even with the charges, even with the proof the charges are true will the powers that be decide, "we can't do that to the country"?
     
    Last edited:
    With each new scandal involving Donald Trump, the question arises again: Is this the one that will finally exact some pain on the former president?

    The question is in the air once more following the FBI’s seizure of top-secret documents from Mar-a-Lago last week. On the one hand, as both Trump’s allies and adversaries have noted, such a warrant on a former president is unprecedented, one of Trump’s lawyers reportedly told the government all files were returned prior to the search, and Trump has offered nonsensical defenses, all of which point to the seriousness of the situation.

    On the other, many cases involving mishandled classified information end without charges—just ask Hillary Clinton—and some experts speculate that the goal of the search may simply have been to recover the documents rather than to build a criminal case against Trump.

    But because this case is only the latest in a string of scandals, the question can’t be separated from a broader context: Trump’s repeated ability to escape the most serious, and sometimes any, consequences for his serial misbehavior.

    This skill has birthed memes, including a reappropriation of the “Teflon Don” moniker, well-deserved conservative mockery of premature political death warrants, and the immortal “Ah! Well. Nevertheless” tweet.

    This pattern has created an air of invincibility around Trump that can drive liberals to nihilistic fatalism and conservatives to hubris. In truth, the dichotomy is misleading: Though Trump has evaded the most serious legal consequences so far, he has paid a political price; there’s a reason he’s the former president and very unpopular with the majority of Americans. Still, as we await more information on the Mar-a-Lago search, the record reveals the maneuvers that have gotten Trump out of jeopardy in the past.

    Before the Presidency

    The Scandal:     Too many to summarize, as I chronicled in a running tally before he was elected president, including housing discrimination, a scammy “university,” and sexual-assault and -harassment allegations going back decades.

    When: 1973–2017

    How He Got Away With It: You name it, he tried it: connections, luck, running out the clock, endless litigation. But more than anything, a pattern emerged of Trump managing to sidestep serious legal consequences by paying fines to dispose of regulatory headaches, civil lawsuits, and other matters, frequently without having to admit guilt or submit to any other penalties. Many of the cases involved corners cut or laws bent to benefit his business, and the fines tended to represent a sliver of whatever revenue he’d made by way of the infraction...............


     
    .........If Trump is charged with a crime — or crimes — but forgoes a plea deal, the case would proceed to a criminal trial. According to the FBI's search warrant, prosecutors are looking into whether Trump violated three federal laws:

    • 18 USC § 793, a key facet of the Espionage Act relating to the removal of information pertaining to the US's national defense. Conviction on this count carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison.
    • 18 USC § 2071, which bars the concealment, removal, or mutilation generally of government records. Conviction on this count carries a maximum penalty of three years and disqualification from holding public office.
    • 18 USC § 1519, which prohibits the destruction, alteration, or falsification of records "with the intent to impede, obstruct, or influence the investigation or proper administration of any matter" within the jurisdiction of federal agencies or departments. Conviction on this count carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison.
    In all, the former president would be looking at potentially being incarcerated for 33 years, according to legal experts.

    "These are serious crimes because they risk our national security," McQuade said. "The facts will matter. I would imagine that as with the investigation of Hillary Clinton, DOJ will want to assess intent."

    She added that the inclusion of Section 1519 — the obstruction statute — "suggests that Trump may have tried to conceal from the government what he had. If so, that factor would tend to favor prosecution."

    That begs the question: if Trump is charged, convicted, and winds up in prison, can he still run for president in 2024?

    The short answer is yes, and it's been done before.

    As Insider previously reported, there's nothing in the Constitution that blocks someone from mounting a presidential run if they're behind bars. The socialist candidate Eugene Debs had been convicted of treason under the Espionage Act when he ran for president in 1920. And Lyndon LaRouche, who was convicted of mail fraud in 1988 and imprisoned, ran for president in 1992.

    If he's convicted for violating two of the three laws mentioned above, Trump could theoretically launch a 2024 presidential campaign even if he's incarcerated. If he's convicted for violating Section 2071, however, he could be disqualified from holding office again..........


     
    Optimus Prime said:


    I don't see Biden pardoning Trump

    Trump and the GOP if there are pardons

    Click to expand...


    Biden shouldn't pardon Trump. It was a mistake when Ford pardoned Nixon. That would just be repeating the same mistake. People need to be dissuaded from attempting what Trump has done to our country and government in the future. The only way that happens is for Trump to have serious consequences for his actions now.
     
    coldseat said:
    Biden shouldn't pardon Trump. It was a mistake when Ford pardoned Nixon. That would just be repeating the same mistake. People need to be dissuaded from attempting what Trump has done to our country and government in the future. The only way that happens is for Trump to have serious consequences for his actions now.
    Click to expand...
    Nixon's crimes were different, the country was different and the Republican party wasn't a Putin fan club. Biden cannot be persuaded to pardon or commute Trump for the sake of our democracy. Ford's pardon was a mistake than Biden simply can't afford to make again. Whatever comes after Trump is charged, convicted and sentenced to is a burden that we as Americans must all take on. There must not be any leniency for a failed coup and attempted coverup of espionage.

    For once in their lifetime, Democrats must conduct themselves with the same unabashed determination in seeing that Trump is made to pay for his transgressions that Republicans demonstrated in willfully and openly lying and supporting the attempted coup and coverup and the tactics that Republicans used to deny voting rights and strip women of their power of self determination. A pardon or commutation of any sentence will be the nail in the coffin for the experiment that has become a beacon for the rest of the world of what is possible with a government for the people, of the people and by the people where all citizens are equal under the law.
     
    coldseat said:
    Biden shouldn't pardon Trump. It was a mistake when Ford pardoned Nixon. That would just be repeating the same mistake. People need to be dissuaded from attempting what Trump has done to our country and government in the future. The only way that happens is for Trump to have serious consequences for his actions now.
    Click to expand...

    Commutation and pardon aren't the same thing.
     
    So I didn't expect this to happen...

    WEST PALM BEACH — A federal judge on Thursday ordered the Justice Department to unseal at least some of the probable cause affidavit used to secure a search of former President Donald Trump's Florida estate.

    “On my initial careful review ... there are portions of it that can be unsealed,” Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart said after a hearing where a top government lawyer contended the document's release could jeopardize an investigation that is still in its "early stages."

    Reinhart said he would "give the government a full and fair opportunity” to make redactions to the document, and ordered them to turn in the redacted version by next Thursday. He said he would then review the document and either order its release if he agrees with the redaction or hold a closed-door hearing with the government if he disagrees.
    Click to expand...

    www.nbcnews.com

    Judge says he's inclined to unseal parts of Mar-a-Lago search affidavit, orders government to submit redactions

    The Justice Department argued that releasing the justification for the search could jeopardize the investigation and put witnesses in the case at risk.
    www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
     
    superchuck500 said:
    Commutation and pardon aren't the same thing.
    Click to expand...

    Understood, but it has the same effect. And part of a commutation is to typically express regret and acknowledgement of the offense that was committed. Trump will never do that. He deserves no leniency but does deserve to be made an example of.
     
    coldseat said:
    Understood, but it has the same effect. And part of a commutation is to typically express regret and acknowledgement of the offense that was committed. Trump will never do that. He deserves no leniency but does deserve to be made an example of.
    Click to expand...

    I don’t think that’s necessarily part of the commutation process but it’s a silly hypothetical debate anyway. Let’s cross that bridge if we should be so fortunate as to arrive at it.
     
    Article in favor of a pardon
    =====================
    It’s anyone’s guess how the federal investigations around Donald Trump will intersect with the former president’s political ambitions.

    It’s possible no indictment will be filed and Trump won’t run again. It’s also possible he will be indicted on charges related to the 2020 election, the handling of government documents, or both; that he will mount a third presidential campaign, and that America’s 2024 election will be clouded by the incumbent administration’s novel prosecution of a rival candidate of a major party.


    There’s an endgame that would avert that destabilizing prospect: If Attorney General Merrick Garland’s Justice Department indicts Trump, President Biden could intervene with the exercise of his pardon power.


    Hear me out. I’m not naive enough to think modern politicians are in the habit of sacrificing their own political interests to reduce polarization or strengthen “norms.” But it isn’t clear that pardoning Trump would hurt Biden politically.

    On the contrary, making such a startling move could put the weary president back in the center of the political universe, scramble political alignments and make his former rival — if he accepts the humbling offer — appear small and weak.

    Put to one side the grave criminal scenarios in which Trump was using classified material for blackmail or some other sinister purpose, or secretly directing rioters to assault police at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and assume the indictment is based largely on what is already known.

    Biden would announce, after reviewing the charges in detail, that he has nothing but contempt for Trump and that he is offering a pardon precisely because he has no doubt about his (or another Democratic nominee’s) ability to rout the former president in an election, if it comes to that.

    But Biden would express his concern, as the ultimate custodian of America’s national interest, about the precedent set by an election-year prosecution that rests in part on untested legal theories about obstruction or document classification by a sitting president.

    Trump’s acceptance of the pardon would enable Biden’s allies to make political hay of the (dubious) claim that this amounts to a recognition of guilt.

    There’s no guarantee, after all, that a prosecution would prevent Trump from mounting a credible campaign for president in 2024 — and it might even help him win the Republican nomination, putting a second term within reach.


    One of Trump’s most potent appeals to Republican primary voters is the claim that Democrats want to suppress and criminalize their opposition, and that this requires an extraordinary electoral response from the GOP.

    A pardon would partially preempt this claim, while a grinding prosecution would produce unending news cycles that Trump could use to dominate a primary………

     
    Optimus Prime said:
    Article in favor of a pardon
    =====================
    It’s anyone’s guess how the federal investigations around Donald Trump will intersect with the former president’s political ambitions.

    It’s possible no indictment will be filed and Trump won’t run again. It’s also possible he will be indicted on charges related to the 2020 election, the handling of government documents, or both; that he will mount a third presidential campaign, and that America’s 2024 election will be clouded by the incumbent administration’s novel prosecution of a rival candidate of a major party.


    There’s an endgame that would avert that destabilizing prospect: If Attorney General Merrick Garland’s Justice Department indicts Trump, President Biden could intervene with the exercise of his pardon power.


    Hear me out. I’m not naive enough to think modern politicians are in the habit of sacrificing their own political interests to reduce polarization or strengthen “norms.” But it isn’t clear that pardoning Trump would hurt Biden politically.

    On the contrary, making such a startling move could put the weary president back in the center of the political universe, scramble political alignments and make his former rival — if he accepts the humbling offer — appear small and weak.

    Put to one side the grave criminal scenarios in which Trump was using classified material for blackmail or some other sinister purpose, or secretly directing rioters to assault police at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and assume the indictment is based largely on what is already known.

    Biden would announce, after reviewing the charges in detail, that he has nothing but contempt for Trump and that he is offering a pardon precisely because he has no doubt about his (or another Democratic nominee’s) ability to rout the former president in an election, if it comes to that.

    But Biden would express his concern, as the ultimate custodian of America’s national interest, about the precedent set by an election-year prosecution that rests in part on untested legal theories about obstruction or document classification by a sitting president.

    Trump’s acceptance of the pardon would enable Biden’s allies to make political hay of the (dubious) claim that this amounts to a recognition of guilt.

    There’s no guarantee, after all, that a prosecution would prevent Trump from mounting a credible campaign for president in 2024 — and it might even help him win the Republican nomination, putting a second term within reach.


    One of Trump’s most potent appeals to Republican primary voters is the claim that Democrats want to suppress and criminalize their opposition, and that this requires an extraordinary electoral response from the GOP.

    A pardon would partially preempt this claim, while a grinding prosecution would produce unending news cycles that Trump could use to dominate a primary………

    Click to expand...

    Do you want Democrats to stay home, convinced you're a pathetic, weak Quisling?
    Because pardoning Trump is how you get Democrats to stay home in droves.
     

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