All things political. Coronavirus Edition. (1 Viewer)

[Maxp]

I fear we are really going to be in a bad place due to the obvious cuts to the federal agencies that deal with infectious disease, but also the negative effect the Affordable Care act has had on non urban hospitals. Our front line defenses are ineffectual and our ability to treat the populous is probably at an all time low. Factor in the cost of healthcare and I can see our system crashing. What do you think about the politics of this virus?

 

[JimEverett]

So, if you're so convinced, why not go lick some doorknobs in Italy and prove that all the hype is nonsense?

Put your money where your mouth is.

How would licking doorknobs in Italy prove that there are strains of influenza that have mortality rates over 10 times the "seasonal flu"

 

[B4YOU]

I honestly believe that trump wishes he were not president right now. This situation is proving to be the one issue that he is not able to simply lie his way out of. Reality is fighting back hard on this one.

His modus operandi is to divide Americans. He can’t do that with an outbreak. What’s left is to unify and lead, something he has not done while in office nor have the skills for.

 

[Lapaz]

A quick look at the CDC website shows that the CDC itself compares this to the flu: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

I didn't see anything in the CDC link where they said the mortality is similar to the flu. All I saw is that there have been past pandemics from the flu which they can learn from.

 

[CoolBrees]

Everyone is aware we have a flu shot and tamaflu right? I believe 40% of the populations gets it. Imagine how many people would die each year without the flu shot. This is more contagious.

Also influenza has been around forever. This is new. Like 4 months old to the world new. And less than three months old here. No one’s immune system has any antibody for this, hence the ridiculously high rate of infection. Yes it mostly kills old people, but also obese and those with diabetes.

Finally, It is the strain that this will put on the healthcare industry - which was understaffed before this began- when those people get sick and ICUs fill up. Then what? A lot more people die than would have. This isn’t anecdotal, these are the real accounts from physicians in Italy. We are a few weeks behind them. They are making wartime triage decisions. I mean Italy is a fraction of our size and they are having 2000+ cases a day now. Hundreds dying every day.

Before it was for ratings. Now it is just overblown. What will be the story in 2 weeks when we look like Italy x 3?

 

[JimEverett]

I didn't see anything in the CDC link where they said the mortality is similar to the flu. All I saw is that there have been past pandemics from the flu which they can learn from.

I never claimed they did. Mortality rates for flu vary as do mortality rates for coronaviruses.

All I was saying is that the CDC and everyone else, knows that the flu and coronavirus are very similar.

 

[Lapaz]

I think the situation dictates and takes precedent over anything else - including making a little more money then whatever insurance would cover (I am assuming the pro leagues are covered for these things, but it even applies if they are not) And the situation has produced an incredible amount of interest and fear in this thing. So the NBA, and others, have to react accordingly.

i mean I think what we are seeing is overblown. At the same time, I am not going to go out and try to gather thousands of people together and risk being blamed for making things worse if I am wrong. At this point there is only 1 sensible action - and that is to stop large scale gatherings, and do those things like social distancing, isolation, etc. Even if you think it is ridiculous and will hurt you financially or otherwise.

You say it is overblown, yet advocate social distancing. That is exactly the actions being taken, so how is that overblown? Also, a 1 to 3% mortality rate is 10 to 30 times worse than the seasonal flu. In some places, it is a close to 1 to 1 on recovery compared to deaths. Even if half of people are asymptomatic, that suggests much higher than 3% mortality rate. 13 of 13 skiers ages 40 to 80 got sick, so the odds are good that there aren't a lot of asymptomatic adults. It is irresponsible to suggest this is overblown.

 

[BobE]

I guess big Orange is on board

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

Tomorrow he talks about the great bill he made

 

[JimEverett]

You say it is overblown, yet advocate social distancing. That is exactly the actions being taken, so how is that overblown? Also, a 1 to 3% mortality rate is 10 to 30 times worse than the seasonal flu. In some places, it is a close to 1 to 1 on recovery compared to deaths. Even if half of people are asymptomatic, that suggests much higher than 3% mortality rate. 13 of 13 skiers ages 40 to 80 got sick, so the odds are good that there aren't a lot of asymptomatic adults. It is irresponsible to suggest this is overblown.

I thought we were talking about the foolishness or lack thereof of people saying COVID-19 is like the flu.

I do think it is overblown, but I will be the first to admit that I don;t know a whole lot about it. I just base that on the numbers I see and my understanding of them. Like i said, I certainly would not advocate for anything that goes against what experts are saying.

As far as mortality rates - the last point was only to point out that the idea that a higher mortality rate of COVID-19 vs. flu does not make them some sort of grossly dissimilar. There have been strains of influenza with mortality rates exponentially higher than "seasonal" flu - which I take to mean the rate of an average flu season.

You can go back and look at what I posted as to why I think it is overblown. And I couched in the terms I did above - not from a position of authority or anything - or acting like I am some sort of expert, just that the numbers do not make sense to me.

 

[lurk]

I do think it is overblown, but I will be the first to admit that I don;t know a whole lot about it. I just base that on the numbers I see and my understanding of them.

You do a substantial amount of talking for someone who has no idea what he's talking about...

 

[Heathen]

I'm still surprised at the lack of outrage from Republicans over the blatant socialism this admin is practicing...

https://cnn.it/2w5jKMO

 

[JimEverett]

You do a substantial amount of talking for someone who has no idea what he's talking about...

I forgot this board was full of a bunch of epidemiologists.

 

[Lapaz]

I thought we were talking about the foolishness or lack thereof of people saying COVID-19 is like the flu.

I do think it is overblown, but I will be the first to admit that I don;t know a whole lot about it. I just base that on the numbers I see and my understanding of them. Like i said, I certainly would not advocate for anything that goes against what experts are saying.

As far as mortality rates - the last point was only to point out that the idea that a higher mortality rate of COVID-19 vs. flu does not make them some sort of grossly dissimilar. There have been strains of influenza with mortality rates exponentially higher than "seasonal" flu - which I take to mean the rate of an average flu season.

You can go back and look at what I posted as to why I think it is overblown. And I couched in the terms I did above - not from a position of authority or anything - or acting like I am some sort of expert, just that the numbers do not make sense to me.

Where are the numbers that don't look terrible? The best results seem to be in China, but their mortality is about 5%, if you only consider the cases with outcomes.

China COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

China Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

But then Italy has almost a 50% mortality, probably largely because their hospitals are overwhelmed. I surmise that they didn't practice social distancing and good health practices soon enough.

Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

I don't think Italy's numbers even count deaths due to other diseases which weren't treated as well due to coronavirus victims using resources. I hear many doctors guessing that the real death rates are much lower due to the speculation that many people are asymptomatic, but the 13 of 13 skier example makes me doubt that. These other countries have done large amounts of tests, so it is likely that at least half of the sick have been identified. Even if half the population is asymptomatic, the numbers are still horrible. It may not be as bad as the bubonic plaque, but it is more than an order of magnitude worse than anything we've seen for decades.

The problem we have is that we don't have tests, so we don't know who should be quaranteened. The other problem is that we are creating a dangerous fear of scarcity from groceries and delivery services shutting down. I fear that we don't have a plan to deal with the legislation that is about to give people 2 weeks free paid time off.

 

[not2rich]

The problem we have is that we don't have tests, so we don't know who should be quaranteened. The other problem is that we are creating a dangerous fear of scarcity from groceries and delivery services shutting down. I fear that we don't have a plan to deal with the legislation that is about to give people 2 weeks free paid time off.

The scarcity issue isn't caused by the prospect of paid time off. People are worried about being quarantined and not being able to leave the house for two weeks to a month. The run on Costco and grocery/drug stores has nothing to do with worrying about lack of money.

At the same time, people who are shut in still have to worry about paying the bills, or in some cases, losing their job or business.

 

[JimEverett]

Where are the numbers that don't look terrible? The best results seem to be in China, but their mortality is about 5%, if you only consider the cases with outcomes.

China COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

China Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

But then Italy has almost a 50% mortality, probably largely because their hospitals are overwhelmed. I surmise that they didn't practice social distancing and good health practices soon enough.

Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

I don't think Italy's numbers even count deaths due to other diseases which weren't treated as well due to coronavirus victims using resources. I hear many doctors guessing that the real death rates are much lower due to the speculation that many people are asymptomatic, but the 13 of 13 skier example makes me doubt that. These other countries have done large amounts of tests, so it is likely that at least half of the sick have been identified. Even if half the population is asymptomatic, the numbers are still horrible. It may not be as bad as the bubonic plaque, but it is more than an order of magnitude worse than anything we've seen for decades.

The problem we have is that we don't have tests, so we don't know who should be quaranteened. The other problem is that we are creating a dangerous fear of scarcity from groceries and delivery services shutting down. I fear that we don't have a plan to deal with the legislation that is about to give people 2 weeks free paid time off.

Post 505, I think.

And I am not trying to argue with you or anything. It is not that I really disagree with anything you say. I am just telling you what I think.

 

[Lapaz]

The scarcity issue isn't caused by the prospect of paid time off. People are worried about being quarantined and not being able to leave the house for two weeks to a month. The run on Costco and grocery/drug stores has nothing to do with worrying about lack of money.

At the same time, people who are shut in still have to worry about paying the bills, or in some cases, losing their job or business.

The prospect of the paid time off can contribute to the problem. If a significant amount of hourly workers take 2 weeks off, how are stores going to be stocked and who will deliver the goods? I don't know how the legislation reads, but people should only take time and be paid for time off if they are feeling ill or have to care for someone ill, and all businesses should establish good hygiene policies and distancing to the extent possible, otherwise we will create another dangerous problem.

 

[lurk]

I forgot this board was full of a bunch of epidemiologists.

This board could be full of a bunch of Nobel Prize winning virologists beamed onto earth by Jesus Christ himself for the sole purpose of educating you, and it wouldn't make a bit of difference in what you think, what you say, or how loudly and authoritatively you shout it from the rooftop. That's the stone cold truth, and we both know it.

 

[JimEverett]

This board could be full of a bunch of Nobel Prize winning virologists beamed onto earth by Jesus Christ himself for the sole purpose of educating you, and it wouldn't make a bit of difference in what you think, what you say, or how loudly and authoritatively you shout it from the rooftop. That's the stone cold truth, and we both know it.

I am expressing myself "authoritatively" when I am probably the only person in this thread who has said they don't know a lot about this stuff? Perhaps you need a dictionary?