All things political. Coronavirus Edition. (2 Viewers)

[Maxp]

I fear we are really going to be in a bad place due to the obvious cuts to the federal agencies that deal with infectious disease, but also the negative effect the Affordable Care act has had on non urban hospitals. Our front line defenses are ineffectual and our ability to treat the populous is probably at an all time low. Factor in the cost of healthcare and I can see our system crashing. What do you think about the politics of this virus?

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Consider the possibility that the organizers of large public gatherings have lawyers and public relations staff advising them how to best avoid liability and maintain image.

I know small, local organizations that have made the decision to cancel planned events purely from a legal liability standpoint.

So, what are you basing your skepticism on?

 

[V Chip]

A quick look at the CDC website shows that the CDC itself compares this to the flu: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

Where on that link do they compare it to the flu? I even did a search, and flu is mentioned 3 times -- and not in a comparison, but in talking about existing pandemic research and guidance.

EDIT: Taurus beat me to it, and the responses since... oy vey. Nevermind.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Ugh... the is it similar to the flu or not seems like a stupid debate with people just trying to "win".

COVID-19 comes from a coronavirus like the flu. It's a respiratory illness like the flu. But it is not like the flu in how we should deal with it, b/c it's novel, there are no vaccines, it's more severe and it appears to have a different R0.

So the question is why is the comparison being made, and is the similarity valid in that context.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

Ugh... the is it similar to the flu or not seems like a stupid debate with people just trying to "win".

COVID-19 comes from a coronavirus like the flu. It's a respiratory illness like the flu. But it is not like the flu in how we should deal with it, b/c it's novel, there are no vaccines, it's more severe and it appears to have a different R0.

So the question is why is the comparison being made, and is the similarity valid in that context.

We’re going to be shutins for a month
I hope you don’t expect the discourse to improve markedly

 

[Archies Ghost]

So, what are you basing your skepticism on?

Skepticism of what?

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Skepticism of what?

Skepticism of the risk associated with COVID-19. You seem pretty certain that there is little to no risk associated with this illness.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

Skepticism of the risk associated with COVID-19. You seem pretty certain that there is little to no risk associated with this illness.

??

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

??

I might be wrong but I think Archie's Ghost has been saying this is all overblown, and that the risk is vastly overstated. I'm asking what he's basing it on.

 

[Maxp]

Even on the Rogan podcast the doctor made the comparison because so many others had. Essentially, it spreads similarly as JimE mentioned. We can't stop it, just hope to slow it. COVID 19 results in pneumonia at a substantially higher right. Even in the best of conditions this novel virus is more deadly than the regular seasonal flu. We do not have good conditions for low mortality in this country. Smoking, hypertension, obesity, diabetis look to have very negative consequences with the coronavirus.

 

[BobE]

 

[BobE]

 

[not2rich]

Good news. Also, I did like from the press conference that they are removing obstacles to testing and ordering more breathing machines.

 

[Archies Ghost]

I might be wrong but I think Archie's Ghost has been saying this is all overblown, and that the risk is vastly overstated. I'm asking what he's basing it on.

I firmly believe the risk of death for the general population is pretty low, squarely in the risk category of the flu. I also believe it will not reach flu like rates of infection.

So, yes, I think this is all a gigantic over reaction generated by the normal over abundance of caution from world public health organizations and a media desperate to sensationalize everything into crisis.

Should we take measures to prevent its spread? Of course. Personally, I have developed personal habits due to extensive world travel to avoid infection. I think those habit patterns are appropriate for this virus as well.

Why do I feel this way?

A brief review of Influenza statistics illustrates why.

While the overall ESTIMATED influenza death rate is around 0.1%, the death rate of those hospitalized with influenza is between 4% and 10% with those over 65 dying at rates near the top end of that scale.

I think that is the most direct comparison we have now with this virus.

To be as deadly as the flu, this virus needs to infect 35 million and kill 35 thousand.

To be ten times deadlier, those numbers become (for comparison sake), 35 million infected with 350 thousand dead. If this is seasonal, which it most likely is, that has to happen in the next 60 days. That's 6000 dead a day.

I think this is a serious over reaction driven by a media frenzy and everybody is now obliged to play along for the duration.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

I firmly believe the risk of death for the general population is pretty low, squarely in the risk category of the flu. I also believe it will not reach flu like rates of infection.

So, yes, I think this is all a gigantic over reaction generated by the normal over abundance of caution from world public health organizations and a media desperate to sensationalize everything into crisis.

Should we take measures to prevent its spread? Of course. Personally, I have developed personal habits due to extensive world travel to avoid infection. I think those habit patterns are appropriate for this virus as well.

Why do I feel this way?

A brief review of Influenza statistics illustrates why.

While the overall ESTIMATED influenza death rate is around 0.1%, the death rate of those hospitalized with influenza is between 4% and 10% with those over 65 dying at rates near the top end of that scale.

I think that is the most direct comparison we have now with this virus.

To be as deadly as the flu, this virus needs to infect 35 million and kill 35 thousand.

To be ten times deadlier, those numbers become (for comparison sake), 35 million infected with 350 thousand dead. If this is seasonal, which it most likely is, that has to happen in the next 60 days. That's 6000 dead a day.

I think this is a serious over reaction driven by a media frenzy and everybody is now obliged to play along for the duration.

Thank you for your answer, and I certainly hope you are right, but the data we have supports a different conclusion. What we have indicates 10% of people infected with Covid-19 need to put in ICU. Compared with about 1% of flu. Now, while this number could be driven by incomplete testing and an erroneous statistical model - we already know that it is different than the flu because we can look at what is happening Italy where they have run out of hospital beds in some localities. The flu exists there too, so at least in some places we know that this is causing more stress on the health care infrastructure than the flu does.

So, we know for a fact that in some places this is causing more stress than the flu, so it seems risky to just hope that it is not likely to cause more stress here than the flu.

 

[dtc]

He's a xenophobic white nationalist, who has his hands deep in the policies of travel bans of Muslims, Chinese, and non-UK Europeans, and the border policies as well. It's not PC if you tell the blatant truth right? I thought that purseyfooting around with language to soften the impact to protect the feelings of people was PC, not calling a spade a spade.

I agree, but I think calling him a White Nationalist is purseyfooting around when you should refer to him as a racist or Nazi.

 

[dtc]

Oh geeze. I never said the Coronavirus was a hoax and neither did Trump. He said the Democrats criticism of his handling of the Coronavirus was a hoax. I don't agree with how Trump is handling the situation, but let's not throw out lies about what he actually said.

How could Democrats criticism of his handling - that you and nobody agrees with - be a hoax?

You know what's a hoax? Trump.

Every single thing he says is a lie. He uses the word hoax like I use commas.

 

[dtc]

Who knows, I heard an infectious disease expert from Johns Hopkins opine that the mortality rate would end up being about .6%. But, he also said that he believed the infection rate would be 30-50%. (Really not sure, but I believe that was over the next year).

So, that's still a lot deaths.

Hopefully this event wakens us up to a host of issues - including the fact we need to stop being dependent on China for pharmaceuticals and medical supplies.

How about universal healthcare and a healthcare system that isn't driven only by maximization of profits?

You know, one that might be more concerned with saving lives and actually making us healthy rather than moneY?

 

[dtc]

And to be clear - there are strains of influenza that are more than 10 times lethal than the "seasonal flu".

So, if you're so convinced, why not go lick some doorknobs in Italy and prove that all the hype is nonsense?

Put your money where your mouth is.