All things political. Coronavirus Edition. (2 Viewers)

[Maxp]

I fear we are really going to be in a bad place due to the obvious cuts to the federal agencies that deal with infectious disease, but also the negative effect the Affordable Care act has had on non urban hospitals. Our front line defenses are ineffectual and our ability to treat the populous is probably at an all time low. Factor in the cost of healthcare and I can see our system crashing. What do you think about the politics of this virus?

 

[dtc]

No, the idiots who wrote the speech got so much wrong. He just read what they wrote.

And yes, idiots, because Kusher and white nationalist Stephen Miller mostly wrote it.

Not to derail, but what's with the PC "white nationalist"?

 

[dtc]

Why are the percentages of hospitalization so high? I saw where someone said 70% f Germany would be infected, I have even seen where someone claimed that probably every American would be exposed to the virus.

But the reason I am asking goes to China's numbers. As of yesterday, the country of China had reported a total of a little, under 81,000 cases. Wuhan city itself has a population of over 11 million people. That would put confirmed cases at less than0.74 percent (if my math is right), and that is just for the city of Wuhan. If you were finding a percentage for the entire country it would be imperceptible. Which is far less that 1% - and is it the case that all 81,000 confirmed cases in China have required hospitalization?

Is the idea that China took more aggressive action then we are capable or desire? I think they quarantined the city of Wuhan, right?
I am just asking because I have not followed the stry extremely closely - what I have followed is local stuff and sort of how to mitigate the danger.

I would suggest that there are a number of explanations.

1. China is not being accurate with the stats they've released.
2. China is able to order quarantines and lockdowns without anyone evidently refusing to comply
3. China has a state run economy where the efforts of the state can accomplish things much more quickly than we can. This is evidenced by their construction of temporary hospitals in days where it takes us years to re-pave a sidewalk.
4. God only knows what they really did to stop the spread. Fumigation of the city? Lockdowns 24/7. Even the crazy conspiracy theories can't be refuted like whether they dropped the temp hospital full of people on purpose.

 

[SaintForLife]

Excellent podcast on the Coronavirus from an expert

Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. Look for his book "Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs" for more info.

‎The Joe Rogan Experience on Apple Podcasts

‎Comedy · 2018

podcasts.apple.com

I would suggest people take a listen to the podcast for a lot of good information that helps us sort through the conflicting and incorrect information out there. After hearing him, it's definitely worse than what I thought. He said it will be 10 to 15 times worse than the worst flu season we've seen. Also he said the mortality rate will probably end up around 2% and could go as high as 3%. Very eye opening to say the least.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

Damnit that stuff is so infuriating. They're both insisting that this requires a united front and then they both keep politics as usual. It freakin sucks.

my guess is that this was a sick leave bill that they've had in a drawer for awhile
the frothing of the reporter aside, i'm not quite sure what the issue is, the lack of paid sick leave is a huge issue in low wage jobs - people having to quit jobs bc they or family is sick
the virus just shines a brighter light on a legit issue:

The major tenets of the bill are as follows: establish free coronavirus testing; mandate private businesses provide additional paid sick leave; expand unemployment insurance eligibility; strengthen food security initiatives for senior citizens, children, pregnant women, and food banks; increase funding for Medicaid; and bolster unemployment benefits, among other provisions.

While the total cost of the bill is still unclear, it would cost, at a minimum, tens of billions of dollars. The price tag associated with the food portion alone is $1.3 billion; unemployment benefits follow closely behind at $1 billion.

But perhaps the most outrageous part of the proposed legislation is the government-mandated paid sick leave program, which, as the bill currently reads, would be permanent. Should the bill pass, businesses would be federally required to provide seven days of paid sick leave—with or without a pandemic. This provision has little relevance to addressing coronavirus and much more to do with leveraging the crisis to prop up policies popular within the Democratic Party.

​

That couldn't be more clear in the legislation's stalking component. The text specifies that, should someone need to miss work due to an instance pertaining to stalking, domestic violence, or sexual assault, or should an employee need to help a friend going through such an event, a private business would be federally required to provide paid sick leave.

What does that have to do with coronavirus?

The bill further carves out an additional 14 days of required paid sick leave in a public health emergency, although in that case, the Department of the Treasury—a.k.a. taxpayers—would foot the bill. Only one provision of the paid sick leave portion pertains to coronavirus specifically: It establishes a federal program reimbursed via Social Security, which would compensate those who contract coronavirus (as well as their caretakers) with two-thirds of their wages.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

I would suggest people take a listen to the podcast for a lot of good information that helps us sort through the conflicting and incorrect information out there. After hearing him, it's definitely worse than what I thought. He said it will be 10 to 15 times worse than the worst flu season we've seen. Also he said the mortality rate will probably end up around 2% and could go as high as 3%. Very eye opening to say the least.

i appreciate your clear-eyed approach to this

 

[Optimus Prime]

Trump won't self-quarantine despite potential coronavirus exposure from Bolsonaro aide that caused 2 Republican senators to do so

Sens. Rick Scott and Lindsey Graham self-quarantined out of caution after a member of a Brazilian delegation tested positive for coronavirus

www.businessinsider.com

 

[EmBeeFiveOhFour]

Why hasn't the federal government declared a national emergency yet? How on earth does this not meet the standard for declaring an emergency but not having The Wall on the border does? I've seen the excuses that it will hurt the stock market, but the market has already plunged. Is it that our Big Tough Guy is too entrenched to change his mind and say it's bad after downplaying it for at least a week too long? Or does he genuinely believe it is still just going to go away?

 

[superchuck500]

So who needs epidemiologists and public health experts when you can, instead, base the federal response to a viral outbreak on advice from a 39 year-old real estate developer and suggestions from a random Facebook group?

 

[superchuck500]

my guess is that this was a sick leave bill that they've had in a drawer for awhile
the frothing of the reporter aside, i'm not quite sure what the issue is, the lack of paid sick leave is a huge issue in low wage jobs - people having to quit jobs bc they or family is sick
the virus just shines a brighter light on a legit issue:

The major tenets of the bill are as follows: establish free coronavirus testing; mandate private businesses provide additional paid sick leave; expand unemployment insurance eligibility; strengthen food security initiatives for senior citizens, children, pregnant women, and food banks; increase funding for Medicaid; and bolster unemployment benefits, among other provisions.

While the total cost of the bill is still unclear, it would cost, at a minimum, tens of billions of dollars. The price tag associated with the food portion alone is $1.3 billion; unemployment benefits follow closely behind at $1 billion.

But perhaps the most outrageous part of the proposed legislation is the government-mandated paid sick leave program, which, as the bill currently reads, would be permanent. Should the bill pass, businesses would be federally required to provide seven days of paid sick leave—with or without a pandemic. This provision has little relevance to addressing coronavirus and much more to do with leveraging the crisis to prop up policies popular within the Democratic Party.

​

That couldn't be more clear in the legislation's stalking component. The text specifies that, should someone need to miss work due to an instance pertaining to stalking, domestic violence, or sexual assault, or should an employee need to help a friend going through such an event, a private business would be federally required to provide paid sick leave.

What does that have to do with coronavirus?

The bill further carves out an additional 14 days of required paid sick leave in a public health emergency, although in that case, the Department of the Treasury—a.k.a. taxpayers—would foot the bill. Only one provision of the paid sick leave portion pertains to coronavirus specifically: It establishes a federal program reimbursed via Social Security, which would compensate those who contract coronavirus (as well as their caretakers) with two-thirds of their wages.

I don't disagree the it's a legit issue, but I strongly disagree with using a public health crisis as an opportunity to advance pre-existing political agenda items. I apply the same logic to reject Republican's assertions that coronavirus means we need to complete the wall and fully close the Mexican border - that's nothing more than opportunism. And I think Democrats using the crisis to advance permanent sick-leave is in the same basket.

It's not a qualitative rejection of either agenda item, but it complicates the US response and should be avoided IMO.

 

[SaintForLife]

I would suggest people take a listen to the podcast for a lot of good information that helps us sort through the conflicting and incorrect information out there. After hearing him, it's definitely worse than what I thought. He said it will be 10 to 15 times worse than the worst flu season we've seen. Also he said the mortality rate will probably end up around 2% and could go as high as 3%. Very eye opening to say the least.

He also estimated 480,000 US deaths with around 90 million cases and around 48 million hospital admissions.

 

[superchuck500]

He also estimated 480,000 US deaths with around 90 million cases and around 48 million hospital admissions.

So it takes having someone go on Joe Rogan to get you to open your eyes? I mean, this information has been out there from appropriately credentialed professionals all along. But fair enough, I think Joe reaches a lot of people that way.

But looking at those numbers, they do seem quite a bit more intense than even other estimates on the high range. For example, 48 million hospital admissions? The US sees about 33 million hospital admissions for everything. Having 48 million needing to go to the hospital would simply obliterate the US healthcare system.

Social distancing works with this virus. We might not be able to do what China did, but we can use effective mitigation in the US if people embrace it. That's the key. Not sure if we'll get as as much enthusiasm as we need but we have to try.

Topic: Hospitals in the U.S

Find the most interesting statistics and facts on hospitals in the United States

www.statista.com

 

[SaintForLife]

So it takes having someone go on Joe Rogan to get you to open your eyes? I mean, this information has been out there from appropriately credentialed professionals all along. But fair enough, I think Joe reaches a lot of people that way.

But looking at those numbers, they do seem quite a bit more intense than even other estimates on the high range. For example, 48 million hospital admissions? The US sees about 33 million hospital admissions for everything. Having 48 million needing to go to the hospital would simply obliterate the US healthcare system.

Social distancing works with this virus. We might not be able to do what China did, but we can use effective mitigation in the US if people embrace it. That's the key. Not sure if we'll get as as much enthusiasm as we need but we have to try.

Topic: Hospitals in the U.S

Find the most interesting statistics and facts on hospitals in the United States

www.statista.com

Please spare me the condescension. There has been plenty of conflicting information out there and many of those credentialed professionals were also acting like this was an end of days virus.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

I don't disagree the it's a legit issue, but I strongly disagree with using a public health crisis as an opportunity to advance pre-existing political agenda items. I apply the same logic to reject Republican's assertions that coronavirus means we need to complete the wall and fully close the Mexican border - that's nothing more than opportunism. And I think Democrats using the crisis to advance permanent sick-leave is in the same basket.

It's not a qualitative rejection of either agenda item, but it complicates the US response and should be avoided IMO.

The logic is see is: there is a venn diagram overlap with virus response and paid sick leave
Then there is paid sick leave for victims of domestic abuse - and we know that domestic abuse spikes during times of unease, I’m not sure how it’s unrelated

Now if it can be shown that the inclusion of the domestic abuse clauses and primarily designed to embarrass Rs and are not for legit reasons or that Ds know that Rs are looking to cut as soon as they read the bill, then I will cede my point

 

[superchuck500]

The logic is see is: there is a venn diagram overlap with virus response and paid sick leave
Then there is paid sick leave for victims of domestic abuse - and we know that domestic abuse spikes during times of unease, I’m not sure how it’s unrelated

Now if it can be shown that the inclusion of the domestic abuse clauses and primarily designed to embarrass Rs and are not for legit reasons or that Ds know that Rs are looking to cut as soon as they read the bill, then I will cede my point

I didn't say it's unrelated, you can make a logical relationship. But so can they.

My point is that it complicates (and delays) the response. Focus on the obvious needs and knock them out. Follow-up with the more comprehensive but don't insist on having it all.

 

[superchuck500]

Please spare me the condescension. There has been plenty of conflicting information out there and many of those credentialed professionals were also acting like this was an end of days virus.

No they weren't. Not if they're any good.

And I wasn't being condescending, I was picking on you a bit, but I thought we were good like that. Did I need to include the wink-face emoticon? I will next time.

 

[Saintamaniac]

He also estimated 480,000 US deaths with around 90 million cases and around 48 million hospital admissions.

So now that you've accepted that this is not a hoax, you should use that to reach out to others from your spectrum to convince them. There is plenty of politics to be had. Politics when people lives, including yours and mines, are potentially in danger does not help anyone.

 

[Archies Ghost]

I would suggest people take a listen to the podcast for a lot of good information that helps us sort through the conflicting and incorrect information out there. After hearing him, it's definitely worse than what I thought. He said it will be 10 to 15 times worse than the worst flu season we've seen. Also he said the mortality rate will probably end up around 2% and could go as high as 3%. Very eye opening to say the least.

I thought I would apply some numbers to the assertions above. Ten times worse than the worst flu season.

On average it is estimated that there are 35,000,000 (Thirty-Five Million) annual influenza cases in the United States.

If we multiply by 10 we get 350,000,000 (Three Hundred-Fifty Million)

The current population of the United States is 331,002,651 (Three-Hundred Thirty-One Million Two Thousand Six Hundred and Fifty-One) .

So 100% infection rate.

Last year was the "worst flu season on record" with 80,000 (Eighty Thousand) deaths

Multiply that by 10 and we get 800,000 (Eight Hundred Thousand)

Just for illustrative purposes, let's assume Covid-19 is not seasonal. It kills 365 days per year.

That would be 2192 (Two Thousand Ninety-Two) deaths per day/every day.

Mortality Rates

Since the infection rate is 100%, the math is simple.

800,000 dead in a population of 331,002,651 results in a mortality rate of 0.24%

If the mortality rate is 3% with 100% infection rate, we will experience 9,930,079 (Nine Million, Nine Hundred-Thirty Thousand and Seventy-Nine) deaths.

That would be 27,205 (Twenty-Seven Thousand Two Hundred and Five) deaths daily for 365 days.

 

[EmBeeFiveOhFour]

So it takes having someone go on Joe Rogan to get you to open your eyes? I mean, this information has been out there from appropriately credentialed professionals all along. But fair enough, I think Joe reaches a lot of people that way.

Joe Rogan has more listeners than any other podcast in America, and his listeners tend to be extremely skeptical of most government and traditional media sources. If he is now getting the message across to people that this is not "just the flu" and that precautions should be taken to slow the spread of the virus, that can only be a good thing.