All things political. Coronavirus Edition. (3 Viewers)

[Maxp]

I fear we are really going to be in a bad place due to the obvious cuts to the federal agencies that deal with infectious disease, but also the negative effect the Affordable Care act has had on non urban hospitals. Our front line defenses are ineffectual and our ability to treat the populous is probably at an all time low. Factor in the cost of healthcare and I can see our system crashing. What do you think about the politics of this virus?

 

[The moose]

This is a good read.

Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Show (Published 2020)

Even small differences in timing would have prevented the worst exponential growth, which by April had subsumed New York City, New Orleans and other major cities, researchers found.

www.nytimes.com

The models show staggering different results in deaths if the administration did not blow this whole thing off for two months.

A few days earlier and thousands of lives saved.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

The serologic study of Santa Clara County, California suggested 2.5% - 4.2% of the population had been infected. Supposing that is correct, and then making a bigger leap to say the numbers apply across the country would result in a death rate, currently, of 0.68% to 1.15%

Just trying to understand the numbers - in order to have a death rate around 0.2% roughly 15% of the U.S. population would need to be infected - which I think some German studies have suggested.

I think it's possible for some highly infected places like New York City to have a significantly higher infection rate (like around 15%), but it seems highly unlikely that is the case everywhere. Right now NYC has about 195K confirmed cases. The population of NYC is like 8.4 million. So, for 15% of the population to have been infected that would be something like 1.2 million people. I believe that there have been serological studies in New York that suggest as high as 20% of the population has been infected to some degree. This certainly seems possible, and consistent with what we know of how infectious it is.

It certainly seems unlikely that infection rates like that have spread to the rest of the country though. I wouldn't be surprised though if somewhere between 5 and 10% of the population of the US has been infected already.

 

[CoolBrees]

Exclusive: A quarter of Americans are hesitant about a coronavirus vaccine - Reuters/Ipsos poll

A quarter of Americans have little or no interest in taking a coronavirus vaccine, a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Thursday found, with some voicing concern that the record pace at which vaccine candidates are being developed could compromise safety.

www.reuters.com

I was surprised, not by the %, but the amount ofthose that said they feared the vaccine being rushed not being properly tested and would wait for approval by FDA. I can absolutely understand that line of thinking. Just surprised me there were that many that were at least rational.

 

[Devildog]

To be honest, I'm hesitant about the vaccine, too. This is usually supposed to take at least 18 months until it can be fielded and this is going to take significantly less time. I work overseas in Afghanistan and I am stuck at home right now. If they tell me I have to get it before I can come back, I guess I'll do it, but if it's voluntary, I'll probably wait to see what happens. This doesn't mean I am averse to vaccines.

 

[CoolBrees]

I agree- the fastest we have EVER developed a vaccine for anything is four years. With the pressure on these firms to win this race, I am not confident at all that steps won’t be skipped and bias introduced. I think I would fall in that group that will wait for the FDA

 

[coldseat]

To be honest, I'm hesitant about the vaccine, too. This is usually supposed to take at least 18 months until it can be fielded and this is going to take significantly less time. I work overseas in Afghanistan and I am stuck at home right now. If they tell me I have to get it before I can come back, I guess I'll do it, but if it's voluntary, I'll probably wait to see what happens. This doesn't mean I am averse to vaccines.

Yeah, I want a working vaccine and hope we get one soon. I hope it's safe and I would definitely take one if I could feel assured it will be. But with the rampent politicalization of every federal bureaucratic institution under Trump and the need to find the miracle vaccine/drug to make this all go away, it's harder and harder to trust that it will be safe when first released.

 

[Saintamaniac]

So just to be clear this virus has a 0.02% mortality rate. NY is responsible for 30% of those.

That's the same as the flu with a vaccine. Something is fishy.

To be clear, that people are making a life and death situation where 90K+ American lives have already been lost a political issue to win points for their side is the most despicable thing that anyone could do.

 

[Surviving Saint]

330 m people haven't gotten Covid-19 yet. That should be obvious. Fatality rate is the percentage of people who died divided by the number of people infected.

So, if you want to go like numbers to like numbers about 9,000 people have died from the flu this year and that number is pretty steady. 90K+ have died from Covid-19, and that number was growing super fast before the lock down.

I'm not trying to be condescending. How familiar are you with geometric progression?

That's if you believe 90k died from the virus. I think it's exaggerated.

 

[Dragon]

That's if you believe 90k died from the virus. I think it's exaggerated.

90K is what is OFFICIALLY reported. Fauci says that the real number is probably a lot higher due to the fact that many who died at home wasn't tested

So your "belief" is more correct than both the official number and the foremost US expert on the matter?

 

[insidejob]

So your "belief" is more correct than both the official number and the foremost US expert on the matter?

You've seen his posts. Isn't it obvious?

 

[The moose]

94,276 as of right now and we still are playing a political game.

Vietnam only had 58k and that took years not weeks.

At this rate over 1500 a day we will have doubled that by the first week of June.


The people need to be tested. So we can know how to handle re starting. Or everything is gonna start and stop numerous times.

That will have a lasting effect on consumer confidence worker confidence.

Without consumers and workers we have no economy.

 

[Surviving Saint]

90K is what is OFFICIALLY reported. Fauci says that the real number is probably a lot higher due to the fact that many who died at home wasn't tested

So your "belief" is more correct than both the official number and the foremost US expert on the matter?

OFFICIALLY? Really?

Even after states are auditing their Covid deaths and reducing them by the hundreds?

It's obvious some of you are so scared of this virus, that won't leave your home. That's fine. I'm not asking you to. But don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining.

 

[CoolBrees]

Link?

Being an engineer in an unspecified discipline, I assume you can understand trend lines.

I just posted this on the EE. And unless your view is so slanted you look like you shoulda had a V8, Reuter’s is a source that is to be trusted.

So what say you? As a scientist (engineer), you have been presented with solid evidence. How do you choose to receive it? Do you investigate to determine which is incongruent with the truth, your opinion or the data presented? Or do you reject it out of hand?

which you choose says a ton about your ability to be unbiased.

Where U.S. coronavirus cases are on the rise

The states where the outbreak is growing fastest

graphics.reuters.com

 

[Dragon]

OFFICIALLY? Really?

Even after states are auditing their Covid deaths and reducing them by the hundreds?

It's obvious some of you are so scared of this virus, that won't leave your home. That's fine. I'm not asking you to. But don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining.

What they are doing is removing people who had other healts issues. Its a way to doctor the numbers. So if someone had a heart condition and died while having Covid-19 they change the COD to Heart disease instead, regardless of the fact that the patient may have lived for several month or years if he had not gotten Covid-19

 

[Surviving Saint]

What they are doing is removing people who had other healts issues. Its a way to doctor the numbers. So if someone had a heart condition and died while having Covid-19 they change the COD to Heart disease instead, regardless of the fact that the patient may have lived for several month or years if he had not gotten Covid-19

So why doctor the numbers in the first place?

 

[Beach Friends]

OFFICIALLY? Really?

Even after states are auditing their Covid deaths and reducing them by the hundreds?

Don't you dare question Fauci. He's been right about everything. Oh wait, I was thinking about a different Fauci. I think the one they are talking about is the same one who on January 21 said the virus is not something the citizens of the United States should be worried about, who on February 17th said the risk from the virus was minuscule and that Americans should be more worried about the annual Flu, the same one who said back in March that Americans should not be walking around with masks, the same one who later said the entire nation should be on a New York style lockdown.

Whatever the government says should not be questioned. Especially if the person telling you what to think is an expert.

Do you want to be an individual, or do you want to submit and take your place in the collective?

It's your choice - well, at least until you give that up.

 

[The moose]

Don't you dare question Fauci. He's been right about everything. Oh wait, I was thinking about a different Fauci. I think the one they are talking about is the same one who on January 21 said the virus is not something the citizens of the United States should be worried about, who on February 17th said the risk from the virus was minuscule and that Americans should be more worried about the annual Flu, the same one who said back in March that Americans should not be walking around with masks, the same one who later said the entire nation should be on a New York style lockdown.

Whatever the government says should not be questioned. Especially if the person telling you what to think is an expert.

Do you want to be an individual, or do you want to submit and take your place in the collective?

It's your choice - well, at least until you give that up.

Hey I have figured out you are the smartest man in all the land besides DD. Because neither of you guys are wrong about anything like ever!

But when you post stuff why don't you just do the work and post said article that you get your dates from?

Or did you just remember 1/21/20 and 2/17/20 out of the blue?

Come on teach us something!

 

[Dragon]

So why doctor the numbers in the first place?

Because then the current administration can say that Covid-19 is no more dangerous than the flu and everything should be opened up.

By lowering the number of deaths they are trying to convince people the pandemic is not serious