All things political. Coronavirus Edition. (3 Viewers)

[Maxp]

I fear we are really going to be in a bad place due to the obvious cuts to the federal agencies that deal with infectious disease, but also the negative effect the Affordable Care act has had on non urban hospitals. Our front line defenses are ineffectual and our ability to treat the populous is probably at an all time low. Factor in the cost of healthcare and I can see our system crashing. What do you think about the politics of this virus?

 

[SystemShock]

Maybe because of the lock down ?

Let me show you something

Doesn't matter what you show me (especially if it is not the U.S.), because unless you know how many total people are exposed, symptomatic or asymptomatic, you can't tell whether exposures are going down, or why. One possibility, the virus spreads so fast and so many have been exposed, we have reached the so called herd immunity.

Now, I am not saying the lockdown didn't help. I am saying we don't really have enough data.

 

[Beach Friends]

We don’t yet know if the infection rate is going down. We are diagnosing fewer cases, but that doesn’t equal fewer infections if we are only testing people who get so severely ill that they go to the doctor and/or become hospitalized.

That stood out to me a few weeks ago when people were arguing the importance of the positivity rate. There may be something helpful that we can take away from that metric, but the limitations seemed kind of obvious at the time people were saying how revealing it was.

 

[SystemShock]

SS, we don’t know that the rate of exposure is going down because we aren’t doing testing correctly to know that.

Yes, that's what I said, or at least tried to.

 

[Dragon]

Doesn't matter what you show me (especially if it is not the U.S.), because unless you know how many total people are exposed, symptomatic or asymptomatic, you can't tell whether exposures are going down, or why. One possibility, the virus spreads so fast and so many have been exposed, we have reached the so called herd immunity.

Now, I am not saying the lockdown didn't help. I am saying we don't really have enough data.

Which is precisely why the entire country is being tested over the next 4 weeks before the final phase of the reopening

 

[JimEverett]

Jim, you are drawing conclusions with data that is not meant to be used to extrapolate the R0.

I am not drawing conclusions - the link you provided is drawing conclusions. The website I linked has as its purpose extrapolating data to determine R0, although I am sure it is far from perfect and I would be interested in hearing why it is wrong.

I know everyone and their brother thinks they understand epidemiology at this point, and I am far from an expert, but the amount of conclusions being jumped to is just staggering.

Right, like claiming the result of 80% of people wearing a mask that is 60% effective will be the cause of R0 going below 1.

 

[JimEverett]

That stood out to me a few weeks ago when people were arguing the importance of the positivity rate. There may be something helpful that we can take away from that metric, but the limitations seemed kind of obvious at the time people were saying how revealing it was.

It seems like a better metric than simple positive cases. As in, I would rather use the positivity rate metric over positive numbers in determining things like whether to partially reopen. But, as you say, its limitations are really obvious.

 

[Dragon]

I am not drawing conclusions - the link you provided is drawing conclusions. The website I linked has as its purpose extrapolating data to determine R0, although I am sure it is far from perfect and I would be interested in hearing why it is wrong.

Right, like claiming the result of 80% of people wearing a mask that is 60% effective will be the cause of R0 going below 1.

Those 80% is the protection afforded the person wearing the mask. But that is actually not the main purpose. The main purpose is preventing that person from infecting others and the efficiency combined with frequent handwashing is way higher than that.

If you COMBINE it so both the infected AND the carrier wears masks, you get a pretty good overall protection.

 

[The moose]

It seems like a better metric than simple positive cases. As in, I would rather use the positivity rate metric over positive numbers in determining things like whether to partially reopen. But, as you say, its limitations are really obvious.

The list limitations are because the nation does not test enough plain and simple.

When symptom less people get tested then we can make real head way in this.

Without real testing we have no earthly idea of where the next break out is gonna happen until it already has.

It is that simple.

 

[The moose]

Trump says he takes hydroxychloroquine 'daily'

Trump losing key part of his base after botched coronavirus response as Texas records biggest one-day rise

Follow the latest updates

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Optimus Prime]

Someone else who doesn't think anything is real/serious/important until is affects them personally
==================================================================

A Florida man who thought the coronavirus was "a fake crisis" has changed his mind after he and his wife contracted COVID-19.

Brian Hitchens, a rideshare driver who lives in Jupiter, downplayed the seriousness of the coronavirus in Facebook posts in March and April.

"I'm honoring what our government says to do during this epidemic but I do not fear this virus because I know that my God is bigger than this Virus will ever be," he wrote in a post on April 2. "Jesus is the King of Kings and Lord of Lords."............

"This thing is nothing to be messed with please listen to the authorities and heed the advice of the experts," he wrote. "We don't have to fear this and by heeding the advice doesn't mean that you fear it that means you're showing wisdom during this epidemic time."

The May 12 post, in which he implored people to "use wisdom," has been shared more than 500 times.

"Looking back I should have wore a mask in the beginning but I didn't and perhaps I'm paying the price for it now," he wrote. If he passed the virus on to his wife, he said, he knows that she and God forgive him...........

MSN

 

[SystemShock]

Right, like claiming the result of 80% of people wearing a mask that is 60% effective will be the cause of R0 going below 1.

Yep, there are a lot of claims going around, by both experts and non-experts. I am skeptical of the numbers being thrown around, simply because we really don't have any significant hard data to go by, the variables are not really quantifiable or validated to a comfortable degree (to me anyway), and many sources of data which may or may not be reliable. Add the dash of sensationalism, and, yeah, I am skeptical.

Maybe it is me, looking at it from the perspective of someone who writes code, as I deal with variables and variances every single day.

And I am a science guy. I believe in the scientific method. But in this case, the scientific method has not gone full circle just yet.

I personally think the virus is way more widespread than it is believed to be.

 

[SystemShock]

"I'm honoring what our government says to do during this epidemic but I do not fear this virus because I know that my God is bigger than this Virus will ever be," he wrote in a post on April 2. "Jesus is the King of Kings and Lord of Lords."............

Nothing fails like it...

 

[Beach Friends]

Trump says he takes hydroxychloroquine 'daily'

Trump losing key part of his base after botched coronavirus response as Texas records biggest one-day rise

Follow the latest updates

www.independent.co.uk

Hell yeah! I think this means Trump can be even better than he was before. Dude is like Steve Austin.

He knew when he said that the media would erupt.

 

[MT15]

It’s just obvious that certain members only want to believe what they want to believe. I don’t have time to read random websites and defend what other experts are saying, especially when the recommendations are simple and actually make common sense.

I have certainly changed my beliefs and mind on the wearing of masks after hearing the data and seeing the real devastation this disease is causing in some 40-somethings through 70-somethings. But you all go on your merry way acting like you know everything.

I just cannot imagine why a simple recommendation to wear a mask out in public is attacked as it has been. What is the purpose of acting like you all know better than the doctors and epidemiologists? Are you “owning the libs”? Honestly, I’ve got too much to do to be on here playing stupid gotcha games.

I hope everyone stays well and out of the hospital. Sincerely.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Even if it was helpful against Covid- and it looks like it isn’t- what would taking when you’re negative do?
=====================================
(CNN)President Donald Trump claimed Monday he is taking hydroxychloroquine after asking the White House doctor if he could take it -- despite the fact that he's said he is negative for Covid-19 and several recent studies show the drug is ineffective against the coronavirus and may even be harmful.

"A couple of weeks ago, I started taking it," Trump said. He later said he'd been taking it every day for a week and a half.

Asked if the White House doctor recommended that, Trump responded, "no."

"I asked him what do you think, he said, 'Well if you'd like it,' " the President told reporters........

Trump says he is taking hydroxychloroquine though health experts question its effectiveness | CNN Politics

President Donald Trump claimed Monday he is taking daily doses of hydroxychloroquine, a drug he’s long touted as a potential coronavirus cure even as medical experts and the US Food and Drug Administration question its efficacy and warn of potentially harmful side effects.

www.cnn.com

 

[Beach Friends]

It’s just obvious that certain members only want to believe what they want to believe. I don’t have time to read random websites and defend what other experts are saying, especially when the recommendations are simple and actually make common sense.

I have certainly changed my beliefs and mind on the wearing of masks after hearing the data and seeing the real devastation this disease is causing in some 40-somethings through 70-somethings. But you all go on your merry way acting like you know everything.

I just cannot imagine why a simple recommendation to wear a mask out in public is attacked as it has been. What is the purpose of acting like you all know better than the doctors and epidemiologists? Are you “owning the libs”? Honestly, I’ve got too much to do to be on here playing stupid gotcha games.

I hope everyone stays well and out of the hospital. Sincerely.

It's really unfortunate that some politicians did not really think through some of the restrictions they were putting in place. When people start to reject the more senseless restrictions the tendency may be to rebel against them all.

As far as jumping to conclusions - keep in mind that the lockdown was put in place based on some really bad models. A lot of people are reasonably questioning whether it was really necessary to suicide the economy. This is especially true when you hear some people saying we will not return to "normal" until we get a vaccine (that may never come).

 

[J-DONK]

It's really unfortunate that some politicians did not really think through some of the restrictions they were putting in place. When people start to reject the more senseless restrictions the tendency may be to rebel against them all.

As far as jumping to conclusions - keep in mind that the lockdown was put in place based on some really bad models. A lot of people are reasonably questioning whether it was really necessary to suicide the economy. This is especially true when you hear some people saying we will not return to "normal" until we get a vaccine (that may never come).

Moderna's vaccine is already going to phase 3, with a successful phase 2. We may not get it until the early in 2021, but unless something crazy happens we will have a vaccine at some point next year. We know that social distancing, and wearing a mask lowered the R0. If you don't comply you are only hurting yourself, and others.

We just don't know enough about this thing to really make assumptions about it. There is research that shows humidity, and temperatures also lowers the R0. Conceivably, there is a strong argument to open up completely this summer with mask, and social distancing. With the understanding we will have to go back into lockdown if we get another peak this fall/winter. I feel like that's the sensible solution. The problem is different states are at different points in their peak.

Also, the anti-lock down protest is not organic. The anti-lock down protest is largely being backed by groups associated with Trump's cabinet, like Devos.

I feel like this argument is completely moot, and conservatives don't get it. It's already been shown you can "open up" all you want. If the public doesn't feel safe, they don't go back to previous behaviors, and still stay largely in lockdown.

At the end of the day this is Trump trying to deflect blame again for his horrible response. Conservatives are desperately trying to point the finger at anyone but themselves, and right now that's: Liberal governors, and CHINA.

 

[Beach Friends]

At the end of the day this is Trump trying to deflect blame again for his horrible response. Conservatives are desperately trying to point the finger at anyone but themselves, and right now that's: Liberal governors, and CHINA.

I personally believe that people who think like this are part of an ever shrinking minority.

People are fed up with having their lives disrupted. 10's of millions have lost their jobs. Businesses are going under. People are told they have to behave like sheep and follow nonsensical rules like no more than 2 people in a boat, regardless of whether all the people reside in the same household.

They don't have to have someone else tell them that we overreacted. They know that when they look at their unpaid bills and realize that the Imperial College sold the world the most expensive pile of BS in the history of the world.