All things political. Coronavirus Edition. (18 Viewers)

[Maxp]

I fear we are really going to be in a bad place due to the obvious cuts to the federal agencies that deal with infectious disease, but also the negative effect the Affordable Care act has had on non urban hospitals. Our front line defenses are ineffectual and our ability to treat the populous is probably at an all time low. Factor in the cost of healthcare and I can see our system crashing. What do you think about the politics of this virus?

 

[Maxp]

You aren't comparing like statistics. You don't know the mortality rate of patients with pneumonia due to coronavirus. China would not quarantine 60 million people for the flu.

 

[The moose]

Yes it is similar to the flu but not the flu.

And yes how you die from the flu is your immune system is not real strong and you develop pneumonia then die just like with this but at a much higher rate than the flu.

Yes healthy people should not be a problem just the young, old, or weak.

I like kids and old people so eat your veggies stay hydrated and get quality sleep!

 

[BobE]

eat your veggies stay hydrated and get quality sleep!

What about 1 out of 3?

 

[The moose]

What about 1 out of 3?

Good luck!

Heck you know I just ate a peanut butter and jelly. That sure as hell ain't gonna help me any.

But I did have a salad last week it was just a hamburger salad ya know dressed!

 

[MT15]

Infoman, why don’t you tell us what you “know”?

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

Mike.
Pence.
Problem.
Solved.

 

[CoolBrees]

you need to read the sentence you quoted: it says Flu was 6% of the people who died last week.

That isn’t its mortality rate. Mortality rate is a percentage of those afflicted who die from it and 3% is pretty high. As I mentioned earlier, the real problem arises if the virus mutates again, the first being those who never show symptoms can be carriers.

 

[Maxp]

Here is a perspective I could absolutely see happening should we have widespread outbreaks.

Covid-19 Will Mark the End of Affluence Politics

The possibility of a global pandemic will reveal our inability to make and distribute the things people need—just in time for a presidential election.

www.wired.com

With potential shortages of goods, and restrictions on people’s movement, both parties are heading into unknown territory. It is likely Democrats will use this opportunity to further their case for Medicare for All. Pandemic surveillance and medical bureaucracies focused on billing do not mix well—stories about astronomical out-of-pocket costs for Covid-19 testing are already circulating. Republicans are likely to take a more xenophobic approach, emphasizing restrictions on foreigners and infected Americans. When it comes to managing shortages, however, both parties are split, just as they were in 1932, between their Wall Street factions that assume affluence and the less mature populist factions that seek assertive public power. The Democratic Party primaries certainly echo those of the Great Depression, with candidates from Bernie Sanders to Amy Klobuchar trying to wrap themselves in FDR’s mantle.

 

[B4YOU]

I’m optimistic that we saw bipartisan support for more funding than Trump was asking.

I think the Trump admin from top down is pushing the most optimistic narrative which worries me. You don’t change behavior by telling everyone this is like the flu.

 

[MT15]

We could go into the numerous reasons that this is a big deal. And why this virus is scarier than influenza, even though influenza is a serious problem.

But I’m waiting for Infoman to tell us why this is a big deal, since he knows.

 

[SaintForLife]

Apparently we are all focusing on the wrong things. CNN shows us what we should really be concerned about.

 

[superchuck500]

Mike.
Pence.
Problem.
Solved.

Managing a nation’s response to a viral outbreak is epidemiology. Epidemiology is a science.

And when you think of science, you think of Mike Pence.

Mike Pence's problem with science

As Indiana governor, Pence assiduously aligned himself with the social conservatism and science denialism of the Christian evangelical right--on issues like evolution, global warming and the dangers of smoking. Now a short step from the presidency, his Indiana tenure offers a clue to what he...

www.cnn.com

 

[B4YOU]

Besides that, and before we go completely off topic... the point stands... why such the uproar over a virus with an (out of context) 97% survival rate, and an 80% rate of recovery with little to no special treatment?

It’s a simple math problem. About 5% need critical care and 50% of those patients die giving us a 2.3% mortality rate. If the US end up with 1000 cases, then 20 people mostly 70+ die. If the US ends up with flu like numbers, then 20M get infected, 1M are critical, and 500k die.

But the math looks worse than that. No country has hospital capacity to add 1M over a flu season to critical care units. Or provide the preventive care to prevent all of that 20% from slipping into the 5% needing critical care. What you could see and what we may be seeing in Iran is increased mortality rates due to a lack of hospital and equipment capacity.

Lastly, we don’t know the number of infected in the US because we can’t test fast enough. CA has 7.4k on self quarantine and has done 200 tests. They just found their first case that most likely is due to community spread. How many more will they find when they get around to testing? We are still letting people in from NK, Japan, Italy, and Iran. These locations are in the upslope of an outbreak. China took draconian measures to stop the spread. Do you think we have the will to lock people into apartment buildings?

 

[superchuck500]

It’s a simple math problem. About 5% need critical care and 50% of those patients die giving us a 2.3% mortality rate. If the US end up with 1000 cases, then 20 people mostly 70+ die. If the US ends up with flu like numbers, then 20M get infected, 1M are critical, and 500k die.

But the math looks worse than that. No country has hospital capacity to add 1M over a flu season to critical care units. Or provide the preventive care to prevent all of that 20% from slipping into the 5% needing critical care. What you could see and what we may be seeing in Iran is increased mortality rates due to a lack of hospital and equipment capacity.

Lastly, we don’t know the number of infected in the US because we can’t test fast enough. CA has 7.4k on self quarantine and has done 200 tests. They just found their first case that most likely is due to community spread. How many more will they find when they get around to testing? We are still letting people in from NK, Japan, Italy, and Iran. These locations are in the upslope of an outbreak. China took draconian measures to stop the spread. Do you think we have the will to lock people into apartment buildings?

^ This. This is it man.

If case counts remain within capacity, outcomes will be good in the US. But this thing is pretty damn virulent and if outbreak in some communities exceeds capacity, it’s going to be more problematic. Recovery times are slow for hospitalized cases (some patients require ventilators for weeks) and the WHO said yesterday they didn’t see much evidence of bunch of unreported mild cases (that pull rates down). This is quite a bit nastier than the flu and our flu treatment protocols aren’t going to be very helpful.

And the answer about China is absolutely no way. The US is not structurally capable of the kind of mitigation measures China was able to execute. Nor do I think there’s political will to do those things.

 

[efil4]

IDK, but I have a daughter in Europe right now so I am pretty anxious. There is nothing about that situation that doesn't make me nervous, especially the transit home.

My sister lives in Florence Italy.

I has calmed down a bit since Sunday and Monday, but she is being hyper vigilant and I just sent her some anti viral masks and other stuff today.

( I had no idea how much it cost to mail a 4lb package to Florence )

 

[MT15]

Not only that, B4YOU, although your points are all valid and correct. (Darn it, I wanted to hear Infoman’s answer first).

Couple of other points: this is a novel virus that nobody has immunity to yet, well almost nobody. It will spread much more widely than influenza.

Also, it appears to have at least twice the transmission rate of influenza, meaning the spread will be twice as rapid.

And we have no treatment (like Tamiflu) or vaccine to slow it down.

people should be getting some stuff in place, in case schools close and/or places where they work shut down for a couple weeks. Staples, durable goods, that kind of stuff. Stuff you would need if you can’t leave your house for two weeks, or if the stores cannot restock their shelves.

 

[superchuck500]

Not only that, B4YOU, although your points are all valid and correct. (Darn it, I wanted to hear Infoman’s answer first).

Couple of other points: this is a novel virus that nobody has immunity to yet, well almost nobody. It will spread much more widely than influenza.

Also, it appears to have at least twice the transmission rate of influenza, meaning the spread will be twice as rapid.

And we have no treatment (like Tamiflu) or vaccine to slow it down.

people should be getting some stuff in place, in case schools close and/or places where they work shut down for a couple weeks. Staples, durable goods, that kind of stuff. Stuff you would need if you can’t leave your house for two weeks, or if the stores cannot restock their shelves.

The flu comparison is just dumb for so many reasons.

I know it’s easy to fall back on (I did it in my last post) but it’s really just not apt at all - for those reasons you said.

I wish people would stop with it.

 

[superchuck500]

1. Why haven’t we applied the same travel measures to other known outbreak locales that we did to China?
2. Why is the test-kit roll out so behind schedule?
3. Why is the White House downplaying this situation when the rest of the world isn’t?

These are fair criticisms irrespective of politics. The fact that the president and the team are more worried about the stock market and deflecting criticism than they are about the coming epidemic is very troubling. The administration needs to get their eye on the ball and it needs to come from the top down. I’m not surprised we’re getting this from Trump but this is a challenge we all need him to face.