100 Marines to Baghdad (Iran conflict discussion)(Reopened & Merged) (1 Viewer)

Archies Ghost

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Here is a pretty good write-up on some contributing factors in the shooting down of the airlines. I have read a lot of articles by Tyler Rogoway, and I think he typically does a thorough job.

The basic premise is a bit off.

In no reasonable country would the expectation of an imminent strike by the United States be paired with normal airline operations.

Iran positioned a highly effective short range SAM battery along the normal departure path at Tehran's IKA airport and allowed civilian operations during a period of weapons free rules of engagement.

This is a basic disregard for aviation safety.

However, it is an authoritarian theocracy and its leadership will not hold themselves responsible. They will arrest and execute everyone remotely responsible.
 

Lapaz

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Not really the best analogy IMO, the Ferdinand incident was perpetrated by local dissidents and spiraled into world war because of an entrenched alliance system. I also don't think it's accurate to define Iranian conduct as rational, and suggest that US conduct has been irrational. If the US was hell bent on war, the missile attack was more than enough pretext to respond. Yes, the Iranians were careful to present an "off-ramp" - a chance to de-escalate, but the US also welcomed it. Similarly, the US has exercised restraint in responding to the Iranian downing of a US drone in international airspace.

Both nations are apparently trying to walk the fine line between antagonism and restraint in order to avoid broader conflict. It's quite risky - but that's apparent at this point.
I don't think killing one of their top leaders showed restraint by the U.S. That action has led to an irrational response by Iran against an airliner, but our action was also irrational, particularly in light of the Iraqi general being killed. If we had the intelligence, then there were many other ways to handle any attack the Iranians were planning, particularly since many other countries in the world are also planning attacks against us, just as we are planning attacks against them.
 

superchuck500

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I don't think killing one of their top leaders showed restraint by the U.S. That action has led to an irrational response by Iran against an airliner, but our action was also irrational, particularly in light of the Iraqi general being killed. If we had the intelligence, then there were many other ways to handle any attack the Iranians were planning, particularly since many other countries in the world are also planning attacks against us, just as we are planning attacks against them.
I certainly wasn't suggesting that everything the US has done exhibits restraint - in fact I said "walking the fine line between antagonism and restraint" . . . sometimes actions are less restrained than others.
 

LonghornSaint

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Iran positioned a highly effective short range SAM battery along the normal departure path at Tehran's IKA airport and allowed civilian operations during a period of weapons free rules of engagement.

This is a basic disregard for aviation safety.
Not certain how you know definitively that that was period of weapons free rules of engagement. Here is a timeline of flights prior to, and after the Flight 752 catastrophe. It looks like 8 flights took off after the Iran missiles hit the US Troop bases in Iraq, then Flight 752 was shot down, then the following 2 flights were cancelled (no idea why), and then 10 flights took off throughout that morning.


I have no idea why they would allow any flights to depart after Flt752 if they were maintaining a weapons free rules of engagement.

I think Tyler Rogoway makes sense even if just a couple of the caveats he described came true: a recipe for disaster, imo.
 
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MT15

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Its rather amusing being preached at about partisanship by you. Thanks for the laugh.

:p
So I wrote a rather pointed critique of your post, and get this? Whatever, that’s sort of how I felt about being preached to about divisiveness by a Trump supporter, tbh.

I also noticed you haven’t answered either question.

And, as you may or may not recall, I have often talked about how I have voted for Republicans in the past, more often than you might think. Had a good Senator from my state who was Republican and supported him. He was a good man. I have never registered as a democrat, nor given any money to democrats or Republicans for that matter. I was brought up to never vote along party lines, but to vote for the best candidate.

I’ve never voted a straight ticket in my life, which is a long time, until the 2018 election, when I voted straight democratic all the way down the line. I probably won’t vote for another republican until they are no longer the party of Trump. Not because I “hate” him, but because I see him for what he is. And refuse to support what he is.

I reflect on my views quite a bit, I always question myself. I have even changed my mind on things or about issues after reading someone else’s views, can you say the same?
 

Archies Ghost

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Not certain how you know definitively that that was period of weapons free rules of engagement. Here is a timeline of flights prior to, and after the Flight 752 catastrophe. It looks like 8 flights took off after the Iran missiles hit the US Troop bases in Iraq, then Flight 752 was shot down, then the following 2 flights were cancelled (no idea why), and then 10 flights took off throughout that morning.


I have no idea why they would allow any flights to depart after Flt752 if they were maintaining a weapons free rules of engagement.

I thing Tyler Rogoway makes sense even if just a couple of the caveats he described came true: a recipe for disaster, imo.
Weapons free is not the correct term but there is no term for the alert state Iran was in.

There are possible motivations for allowing civilian traffic to operate normally while expecting retaliation from the world’s military hyper power immediately after a retaliatory ballistic strike into your neighboring country.

The primary motivation is to use the civilian traffic as a shielding influence. Everyone knows the US is going to do its best to avoid killing civilians so allowing normal airline operations as a human shield is a great strategy.
 

Dadsdream

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Military families of U.S paratroopers deployed to the Middle East report receiving threatening Instagram messages, including kidnapping threats.

The Army's Morale, Welfare and Recreation (MWR) computer system was hacked and other information was pulled from service members personal devices. The question now is whether this was sanctioned by the Iranian government and/or the Iranian Islamic Republican Guard.

Analysts said the message has the traits of a psychological warfare act. Other messages appeared to be phishing attempts.

“If you like your life and you want to see your family again, pack up your stuff right now and leave the Middle East. Go back to your country. You and your terrorist clown president brought nothing but terrorism,” the message reads. “You fools underestimate the power of Iran. The recent attack on your [expletive] bases was just a little taste of our power. By killing our general, you dug your own grave. Before having more dead bodies, just leave the region for good and never look back.”
The message was sent over Instagram by an account that used deceased Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani’s portrait as a profile picture. Soleimani was killed by a U.S. airstrike on Jan. 3 in Baghdad, Iraq.


 

Archies Ghost

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According to this article, new scenarios are being floated to explain the shoot down.

1. The US interfered with the radar
2. Cyberattacks
3. Saboteurs in the air defense system

The most interesting note is an Iranian general stating there was an alert about incoming cruise missiles and that the SA-15 battery had trouble receiving the cancellation notice of the cruise missile alert, mistook the 737 for a cruise missile and fired at it twice.

Alerting your air defense system about inbound cruise missiles would seem to be an excellent time to also stop all civilian departures and direct civilian traffic away from the area.

 

The moose

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insidejob

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Now, the Independent is reporting that Trump secretly threatened the UK with 25% tariffs on automobiles if they did not accuse Iran of violating the JCPOA.

Typical Trump fashion. And his people will just applaud this as him just being him and that's what they want from their president.

I'd rather we didn't threaten all of our allies regularly and wonder if they'll even remain allies if he gets re-elected.
 

Dadsdream

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It used to be called "The Johnson Treatment."

There is a wonderful photo of Lyndon Johnson and Supreme Court Justice Abe Fortas. Johnson is towering over Fortas, smiling and invading his space as the jurist uncomfortably leans back and clinches his arms to his chest. That photo has become emblematic of what became known as the Johnson Treatment—Lyndon Johnson’s persuasive tactics described by Mary McGrory as “an incredible, potent mixture of persuasion, badgering, flattery, threats, reminders of past favors and future advantages.”

 

The moose

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Now, the Independent is reporting that Trump secretly threatened the UK with 25% tariffs on automobiles if they did not accuse Iran of violating the JCPOA.


The funny thing about all of that is they don't own the companies.

So that is a tariff on China for land Rover and jaguar. I think they own lotus also. Bentley is owned by VW. For the life of me I can't think of one auto maker there that is England owned company's. Mini is BMW.

Maybe Morgan is owned locally but they make about 90 cars a year.
 

The moose

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It used to be called "The Johnson Treatment."

There is a wonderful photo of Lyndon Johnson and Supreme Court Justice Abe Fortas. Johnson is towering over Fortas, smiling and invading his space as the jurist uncomfortably leans back and clinches his arms to his chest. That photo has become emblematic of what became known as the Johnson Treatment—Lyndon Johnson’s persuasive tactics described by Mary McGrory as “an incredible, potent mixture of persuasion, badgering, flattery, threats, reminders of past favors and future advantages.”


Yeah the LBJ treatment was real I agree.

But what LBJ was pushing was of a slightly higher level.

Do you want to weigh the merits of the great society to what is going on right now.

That would just be foolish.
 

Dadsdream

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Yeah the LBJ treatment was real I agree.

But what LBJ was pushing was of a slightly higher level.

Do you want to weigh the merits of the great society to what is going on right now.

That would just be foolish.
Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love LBJ.
He was an original and you knew what you were getting.
First-hand accounts tell of him casually kicking people in the shins with his cowboy boots to drive home a point.
He brow-beat, cajoled, lied, threatened, and did whatever it took.

1579203262242.png
 

Dadsdream

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Did he have his private attorney work with foreign nationals to stalk and intimidate US ambassadors?
No, but he fabricated an attack on a US destroyer and used it as a pretext to send ground troops to Vietnam.
 

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