100 Marines to Baghdad (Iran conflict discussion)(Reopened & Merged) (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

We’re gonna try to stay on point in this one - .

After the Iranian admission of shooting down the Ukrainian 737, which was carrying 82 Iranian passengers, protests against the Supreme Leader have broken out.

The UK ambassador to Iran has been arrested for talking photos of the protests. President Trump has tweeted support for the protesters in English and Farsi.

 

[samiam5211]

You know in between how utterly pissed off I am at Trump’s reckless behavior, I hadn’t thought about this through an electoral prism.

To me, the only way this becomes a major benefit for Trump is if Iran bends over backwards and basically tells Trump to go in raw and they will sign it....Which is not happening by November.

At one point I thought Trump was angling to try and get Iran to basically just give him a mulligan and offer the same Iranian deal with like a few more years on it, declare victory, let Fox News spin it for 4 months and then throw it in Democrats face. That or just keep in a holding pattern. Knowing most people aren’t going to care one way or another.

This enormous escalation really takes that off the table. No way Iran wants to hand Trump an election victory anymore and even if he decided to invade tomorrow, 10 months wouldn’t be enough to get in, overthrow the regime, neocon it up and get out without a sour taste In the public’s mouth.

Really the only most cynical opportunity would be Machiavellian provocation of Iran that hits too hard and forces us into a war Americans are manipulated into seeing us as the victims in.

I worry that by the election, war with Iran becomes the primary issue. The election becomes a yes/no vote on this single issue.

Then in the weeks before the election something happens to shift public opinion on this single issue, even if only temporarily, and the election is decided on a mostly temporary feeling.

Our electorate live in a 24 hour news cycle where the only things that matter happened since the last full moon.

Imagine if next 911 or Blackhawk down or Newton or Charlottesville happened a week before an election? Would most of us cast rational votes?

 

[N.O.Bronco]

I just hope that Iran lives up to its promise to expose all US Politicians that took bribes in the US-iran deal...

Setting aside how eye rolling this is from someone openly supporting someone that has made political grifting his self enriching business model.

Why would they have any incentive for that? There would be a much greater probability of Iran strategically looking to harm Trump, who they clearly have an incentive to harm at this point, by exposing the inner machinations of something like this:





Though it would be amusing to see Trump supporters if one of the Democratic campaigns really wanted to troll you all and started calling on Iran to leak the dirt and deliberately get caught trying to solicit a cooperation campaign to damage his candidacy..

 

[samiam5211]

I just hope that Iran lives up to its promise to expose all US Politicians that took bribes in the US-iran deal...

I would welcome any such information.

Which politicians do you believe we’re bribed

What about the Iran deal do you believe was the result of bribery?

 

[TheRealTruth]

Could you elaborate on what you mean by “pretty high up”?

I could see a concern that the outcome of this decision could be at least spun as not as bad as expected on the day people vote in 11 months. That should be a concern for democrats.

That does not mean they are worried that this is the best decision the country. They know this is a terrible decision made on a whim by an erratic man. Any amount of success would be entirely accidental.

Expecting failure is not the same thing as hoping for failure.

I cannot elaborate on their position but will say they are in charge of delegations of hundreds paid and volunteer staffers. They are directly involved in conference and strategic planning.

And I will state again, the exact phrasing is that they are worried that the strikes will gain Trump political capital in the mid to long term.

 

[samiam5211]

I cannot elaborate on their position but will say they are in charge of delegations of hundreds paid and volunteer staffers. They are directly involved in conference and strategic planning.

And I will state again, the exact phrasing is that they are worried that the strikes will gain Trump political capital in the mid to long term.

If they are really concerned about the mid to long term, then they aren’t very good political operatives.

They should be concerned with the situation on Election Day.

 

[reubenray]

I wish we would pull completely out of the Middle East. We have tried for to many years to bring peace there. There will never be peace there. We do not need their oil. I would gladly pay more for our oil to keep from getting any from them. Eventually they will all be fighting and killing each other without our help.

 

[Maxp]

So what do we get out of pulling out of Iraq? Iran will get nukes, Iran will run Iraq, American tax payers are on the hook for another trillion dollars for nothing. Trump could have seeded Iraq to Iran and made a better deal than Obama without ratcheting up tensions to open warfare. I'm all for completely leaving Iraq, but if this was the end game why make such a terrible deal?

 

[TheRealTruth]

If they are really concerned about the mid to long term, then they aren’t very good political operatives.

They should be concerned with the situation on Election Day.

Well I guess you know better, how come you aren't employed by one of the political campaigns?

 

[samiam5211]

Well I guess you know better, how come you aren't employed by one of the political campaigns?

You act like that one of the most desirable jobs out there.

 

[wardorican]

I wish we would pull completely out of the Middle East. We have tried for to many years to bring peace there. There will never be peace there. We do not need their oil. I would gladly pay more for our oil to keep from getting any from them. Eventually they will all be fighting and killing each other without our help.

The majority of US global policy has been to keep small conflicts small or regional. Not let them blowup beyond that. There is a phrase for this, but I can't remember it. I know I've heard it before.

Also, the UN was set up to prevent large scale wars from happening again.

 

[Archies Ghost]

The majority of US global policy has been to keep small conflicts small or regional. Not let them blowup beyond that. There is a phrase for this, but I can't remember it. I know I've heard it before.

Also, the UN was set up to prevent large scale wars from happening again.

Containment was/is used most often.

 

[Zardnok]

Stampede At Funeral For Iran's Soleimani Kills At Least 32, Injures Scores

Iranian television said the stampede took place in Kerman, Soleimani's hometown, where the Quds Force commander slain in a U.S. airstrike last week was to be buried.

www.npr.org

A stampede in south-central Iran at the funeral of Gen. Qassem Soleimani has killed at least 32 people and injured scores, temporarily suspending the burial of the slain commander of the Quds Force who was killed last week in a U.S. airstrike.

Iranian television said the stampede took place in Kerman, Soleimani's hometown, where he was to have been buried following a two-day funeral in which his casket traveled to several cities, where hundreds of thousands of Iranians paid respects.

Graphic videos posted online showed people strewn in the streets as others tried to resuscitate them.
...

The gathering in Tehran, which reports say exceeded 1 million people, is said to be the largest such procession since the one in 1989 for the funeral of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution.

So another 32 or 35 dead depending on which number is used. Also, 1 million people in Tehran shouting "Death to America" seems like a lot of hatred focused towards us. 1 million people is over double the amount at Trump's inauguration; I wonder how many will show up for Trump's funeral.

 

[Archies Ghost]

Stampede At Funeral For Iran's Soleimani Kills At Least 32, Injures Scores

Iranian television said the stampede took place in Kerman, Soleimani's hometown, where the Quds Force commander slain in a U.S. airstrike last week was to be buried.

www.npr.org

So another 32 or 35 dead depending on which number is used. Also, 1 million people in Tehran shouting "Death to America" seems like a lot of hatred focused towards us. 1 million people is over double the amount at Trump's inauguration; I wonder how many will show up for Trump's funeral.

Iranians have chanted "Death to America" every Friday for the past 40 years and have celebrated "Death to America" day on November 4th for the past 32 years.

 

[samiam5211]

Iranians have chanted "Death to America" every Friday for the past 40 years and have celebrated "Death to America" day on November 4th for the past 32 years.

Some Iranians...

Just like some Americans march with white supremacists or support banning Muslims from entering the US.

No country is a monolith. We seem to forget that far too often when looking at other countries.

 

[Archies Ghost]

Some Iranians...

Just like some Americans march with white supremacists or support banning Muslims from entering the US.

No country is a monolith. We seem to forget that far too often when looking at other countries.

If Iran was a monolith, Trump's Iran strategy would be hopeless. It should have been obvious from my previous postings in this thread that I recognize there is a powerful counter current opposing the present Iranian regime and am hopeful it can someday effect regime change internally.

Thanks for preaching, though.

 

[N.O.Bronco]

I think when you support a presidential regime that has embraced a draconian sanctions policy that has severely restricted the Iranian people from things like getting life saving drugs because you unilaterally and without cause abandoned a nonproliferation agreement being complied with and have subsequently vowed to make the bombing of cultural and religious landmarks a state policy in your self-inflicted escalatory adventure, you sort of lose the moral high ground to tone police the people protesting your actions.

 

[samiam5211]

If Iran was a monolith, Trump's Iran strategy would be hopeless. It should have been obvious from my previous postings in this thread that I recognize there is a powerful counter current opposing the present Iranian regime and am hopeful it can someday effect regime change internally.

Thanks for preaching, though.

Us killing the general doesn't make the people in Iran who were on our side more motivated to oppose the regime.

If Iran assassinated someone from the US who was very unpopular with liberals, most liberals would still support the military responding. It would not help build support for Iran inside the US, that is for sure. You may get a few crazies who still speak out against our government, but the overwhelming majority of even NeverTrumpers would be more supportive of Trump than they had been.

 

[Heathen]

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/eliz...s-qassem-soleimani_n_5e117968e4b0843d361379ea