Election Night (+4) in America - Result: Biden Elected President (16 Viewers)

UncleTrvlingJim said:

It is important to remember that it's going to be a pretty solid win for Biden over Trump, but not for Democrats over Republicans. Republicans expanded their control of state legislatures, took back seats in the House, and at the moment held onto their Senate majority (TBD).

We're going to spend several months I'm sure debating what that means. I think Biden has a clear mandate to clean up the obvious messes of the Trump years (the breaking of Democratic norms, repair relationships with allies, general chaos in administration, 4AM tweet storms, divisive language, etc). But I don't think there is a huge mandate for all the policy goals.

That doesn't mean I don't think he should still pursue his policy goals -- I absolutely think he should. But I think it would be smart to not pretend that he has a clear "will of the people" moment for policies. He's going to need to continue to work to sell his vision and his goals.

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That seems to be the way that conventional wisdom is interpreting the results. There is certainly merit in that interpretation, but I also think there is a non-conventional way to look at what happened in this election by looking at the electorate and how they're changing. We know that reaction to Trump has driven voter engagement in both 2018 and this year, both for and against. More against in 2018 when Trump wasn't on the ticket. But on both sides in this election. Given that Biden isn't an engaging/populist candidate, Democrats have really focused on a combination of issues and opposition to Trump to drive voter turnout. Trump, by contrast, has made it all about him for Republicans and polls show (with a 94% approval rating) that Republicans have approved and supported him for it.

So what happens when he's no longer there? You take out Trump, and Democrats still have all of these issues to campaign on. Republicans (and we can already see this happening) by contrast will be campaigning on Trumpism without Trump. What I'm saying is that I wonder if the electorates haven't changed. It used to be that Republicans were always issue voters that didn't need a charismatic leader to drive voter turnout. Is that still true going forward? Will there be a big let down without Trump on the ballot? By contrast, talk was always about Democrats needing a charismatic leader to engage voters. I think these last four years have reversed that somewhat and if that's the case, midterm elections can turn out very differently.

I think our first true test of that will be the Georgia Senate runoffs. And given the work Abrams has done in Georgia (btw, she was my favored VP pick), I can see Dems picking up one of both of those seats.

Just a thought/theory I haven't seen discussed much.

Complex Kid said:

I don't see Tucker or Hannity going to a Trump Network. They know it's going to fail and the checks are going to bounce. They've used up the useful idiot for all he was worth and now they are going to ignore him.

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Tucker might not make that jump, but I'd bet everything i own that Hannity would. He's a Trump lover of the highest order.

FullMonte said:

The irony is that if Hannity and Carlson left Fox to go to Trump's new company, it would probably give Fox MORE credibility and help them improve their overall ratings.

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I don't think it would improve their ratings. Half their ratings are crazy uncles, and they'll follow Trump over the cliff. The other half are establishment Republicans and anti-Democratic Party people. They'll stick with Fox, but I don't see Fox's tent growing overall, since the loss of those uncles will shrink their ratings. Sure Fox would get a few more centrist viewers, but CNN and MSNBC will largely keep their constituents, although people like me would watch more Fox if they moved more to the center.

The problem for Trump TV is that most crazy uncles are broke, so their ad revenue will be lower than other networks.

Lapaz said:

I don't think it would improve their ratings. Half their ratings are crazy uncles, and they'll follow Trump over the cliff. The other half are establishment Republicans and anti-Democratic Party people. They'll stick with Fox, but I don't see Fox's tent growing overall, since the loss of those uncles will shrink their ratings. Sure Fox would get a few more centrist viewers, but CNN and MSNBC will largely keep their constituents, although people like me would watch more Fox if they moved more to the center.

The problem for Trump TV is that most crazy uncles are broke, so their ad revenue will be lower than other networks.

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Yeah, Fox will definitely take it on the chin in the short term, but they have the cash and resources to weather that easily. Trump doesn't have that, and I suspect it won't last long and be another bankrupted business venture, and those crazy uncles will either give up media altogether or slink back to FNC. I just don't think a Trump media company will last very long.

DaveXA said:

Yeah, Fox will definitely take it on the chin in the short term, but they have the cash and resources to weather that easily. Trump doesn't have that, and I suspect it won't last long and be another bankrupted business venture, and those crazy uncles will either give up media altogether or slink back to FNC. I just don't think a Trump media company will last very long.

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I don't know if Donald Trump will want to run a network from prison. Donald Jr. might try, but he doesn't have his dad's appeal to the crazy uncles.

UncleTrvlingJim said:

And what happens when the Republicans do that? They stir up a lot justified anger and enthusiasm to throw them out. And then they do. Trump was a one term president and lost the House after 2 years.

And I'm not saying that Biden should act sheepish or not own the fact he handily won the election. I think he should proceed with his agenda, but he needs to recognize that he still needs to work to sell it, still listen to concerns from people and so on. Ie, he needs to govern and lead. I think he will, but my goal isn't to see 2 years of Biden followed by a red wave in 2022, where he is ineffective his final 2 years. I'd then like to see a continuous march of better governance that lasts a long time, without the paroxysmal spasms back and forth like we've been seeing.

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I'm not disagreeing with your statement, but Obama did that for eight years and what did that get him? The Republicans labeled him as the most socialist, divisive president in the history of the United States. They said he rammed Obamacare down the nation's throat, despite the FACT they debated the bill for almost 2 years and the end result did not look anything like what they Democrats wanted.

The Republican voters believe all of the above and you couldn't tell them anything different even though at the end of Obama's term, his administration would be rated as centrist at worst.

Am I the only one wishing one of these networks grew some balls and called this already?

GrandAdmiral said:

Am I the only one wishing one of these networks grew some balls and called this already?

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Sameee. Fox needs to just say screw it and call it already. But, I think all of the major networks want to play up the recount and lawsuits angle because it's must see TV. They're gonna milk this for all it's worth imo.

DaveXA said:

Sameee. Fox needs to just say screw it and call it already. But, I think all of the major networks want to play up the recount and lawsuits angle because it's must see TV. They're gonna milk this for all it's worth imo.

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Not only that but it makes trumps agony last that much longer

DJ1BigTymer said:

I'm not disagreeing with your statement, but Obama did that for eight years and what did that get him? The Republicans labeled him as the most socialist, divisive president in the history of the United States. They said he rammed Obamacare down the nation's throat, despite the FACT they debated the bill for almost 2 years and the end result did not look anything like what they Democrats wanted.

The Republican voters believe all of the above and you couldn't tell them anything different even though at the end of Obama's term, his administration would be rated as centrist at worst.

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Obama was successful, despite the vilification and obstruction. If Biden manages to move us forward as much as Obama, then he will be a success. In fact, the more successful he is, the more the Republicans will attack him.

My recommendation is that Biden should first fix all of the messes that Trump has made including our Covid response and relations with the world, and then proceed to make improvements to our Democracy, including more protection for the Inspector Generals, and passing laws to assure more independence of the Justice Department and FBI, and then proceed to make progressive changes. He can probably do all of that with bi-partisan support. We need to make sure our Democracy and disastrous policies are corrected first, before tackling progressive changes. I know Obama went to progressive health care changes early in his administration, but he had a Democratic congress in his first couple of years, and also as bad of a situation as Bush left Obama, it pales in comparison to the mess Trump has left Biden. Biden may get a Democratic congress for his 2nd 2 years, and that's when he'll have a chance to pass progressive legislation.

So, do we have any idea of how many votes will be counted today? i.e. are we going to have a good idea on PA, NV, AZ tonight to at least call this thing? Realizing GA and maybe other states will have legal challenges. The new votes are just trickling in so slow.

wardorican said:

So, do we have any idea of how many votes will be counted today? i.e. are we going to have a good idea on PA, NV, AZ tonight to at least call this thing? Realizing GA and maybe other states will have legal challenges. The new votes are just trickling in so slow.

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Well Georgia has already said there's going to be a recount. So I think what we get from them moving forward won't matter much until that's done.

Dude, y'all have added 60 pages to this thread since Wednesday around 11:00. fork yeah.

wardorican said:

So, do we have any idea of how many votes will be counted today? i.e. are we going to have a good idea on PA, NV, AZ tonight to at least call this thing? Realizing GA and maybe other states will have legal challenges. The new votes are just trickling in so slow.

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GA is def a recount because of the margin. The others will probably fly in the face of any attempted legal challenges.

insidejob said:

GA is def a recount because of the margin. The others will probably fly in the face of any attempted legal challenges.

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Pretty sure the Republicans, or at least the Trump campaign will request a recount in Pa. Would be pointless, but that might be part of why it hasn't been called yet.

GrandAdmiral said:

Am I the only one wishing one of these networks grew some balls and called this already?

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Networks are hedging their bets after 2016 but the people on the ground in battleground states and the like have already basically called it.