Election Night (+4) in America - Result: Biden Elected President (9 Viewers)

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    Maxp said:
    Do you think someone other than Trump could have such a massive turnout among rural white Americans?
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    That is so hard to say. I’d like to claim that someone else with his message could do it, but honestly it’s him. It’s not just his role as an agent of their animus, it’s that he sounds like them. He believes the same crazy conspiracies. He doesn’t believe in science. It’s all authentic too, he’s not faking it. Even with all the wheels of government at his disposal he’s still a low information guy.

    I don’t think anyone else could be authentically like them.
     
    Heathen said:
    If he pulls ahead in Michigan, my confidence comes back
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    Lots of blue counties aren't fully reported.. a few red too. Most of the red counties are smaller population and aren't super heavy towards Trump.. we'll see. Biden can make up ground here, but it will be close.
     
    Saint by the Bay said:
    Me and I know one other person said Biden would lose any state he didn’t have at least a 4 pt aggregate polling lead in. Right now it’s shaping up almost exactly that way, with the exception of Georgia.

    Pollsters need to fix their models to account for rural white America. They are motivated and will continue to be so. They are being under counted by as much as 5 pts.
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    Mayor Pete was sounding the alarm on Rural America (Where I"m from), early in the campaign season. People should listen.
     
    wardorican said:
    Lots of blue counties aren't fully reported.. a few red too. Most of the red counties are smaller population and aren't super heavy towards Trump.. we'll see. Biden can make up ground here, but it will be close.
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    Even in the red counties it’s mail in vote which still favors Biden. He won’t win them, but mail in will narrow the gaps. I’ll be shocked if he ends up winning Michigan by less than 5k votes.
     
    NPR (via AP?) has called AZ for Biden.

    apps.npr.org

    2020 Election Results Live

    View interactive maps and live results for the 2020 U.S. election.
    apps.npr.org apps.npr.org

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    Maxp said:
    Do you think someone other than Trump could have such a massive turnout among rural white Americans?
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    I know you didn’t ask me, but my sense is no. We are dealing with a personality cult here in an incumbent president. That’s tough to win, and we probably shouldn’t be surprised that it’s this close.

    But I cannot emphasize enough the personality cult angle.
     
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    Michigan is interesting. So, the Blue counties near Detroit account for almost 3 million people and they're all between 60-80% in. So, expect a blue wave there. In the SW, Berrien County is going to lean Trump, by about +10. For some reason they're only at 2% counted. But, the county has about 150k people.
     
    Georgia... probably not enough votes left to count to flip it. But wow, close. There are probably like 150k votes out there, so only if they're like 70% Biden could this state flip. Possible, but not likely.

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    wardorican said:
    Georgia... probably not enough votes left to count to flip it. But wow, close. There are probably like 150k votes out there, so only if they're like 70% Biden could this state flip. Possible, but not likely.

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    The remaining vote is mostly mail in from Fulton and Dekalb County. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Biden get 80% of the remaining vote in Georgia. I think he pulls it off, narrowly.
     

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