Next Speaker of the House? (1 Viewer)

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    MT15

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    There’s a lot of doubt that Kevin McCarthy will be able to get enough votes to become Speaker. It certainly won’t happen on the first ballot. Already Boboert and MTG are publicly at odds over it.

    Maybe this is worth it’s own thread to watch. One person mentioned is Scalise.

     
    Gaetz looked like he was giving someone the side-eye when he voted for Gym Jordan.
    This is what I mean by these guys being unserious people, they throw out name after name without any consensus! Yesterday he threw out trump's name in the first of three votes. Was that a serious attempt to get him elected SoH? These clowns are just playing games, the D's are right to sit back and watch, and wait for them to behave like serious adults.
     
    McCarthy reportedly saying he has the votes.
    I don’t believe him. If he had the votes he wouldn’t wait until 10 PM. He very well may have the votes by then, but he doesn’t have them right now or they’d be voting.
     
    McCarthy reportedly saying he has the votes.

    I don’t believe him. If he had the votes he wouldn’t wait until 10 PM. He very well may have the votes by then, but he doesn’t have them right now or they’d be voting.
    They're focusing on two more holdouts. They have one McCarthy supporter who hasn't been there that is supposed to be returning at 9PM (hence the adjournment until 10PM), but they still need to either flip or get some rebels to vote present to lower the benchmark.
     
    I don’t believe him. If he had the votes he wouldn’t wait until 10 PM. He very well may have the votes by then, but he doesn’t have them right now or they’d be voting.
    I think they're maybe waiting for a couple of members to fly back into town? I think I read that.
     
    Here’s the first article I’ve seen on what has been offered:


    The Hill is conservative friendly, so I’m not sure how accurate this is. The Holman rule sticks out to me as egregiously bad. Some of the others are not bad at all - 72 hours to read a bill is reasonable.

    “Bring back the Holman rule: A recently released House rules package brings back the Holman rule, which allows members to propose amendments to appropriations bills that cut the salaries of specific federal workers or funding for specific programs down to $1, effectively defunding them.


    Some Republicans have suggested using the rule to defund certain investigations and officials in the FBI and Department of Justice or the Department of Homeland Security or officials who were involved in COVID-19 policies.”
     
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    They're just now figuring these out aren't they? Lol. Kettles and pots and all that.
     
    I hope the two Representatives that are going back to Washington to vote for McCarthy are flying Southwest and get delayed.
     
    We need Democrats to unite with the remaining moderate Republicans to elect a Republican that wants government to function. Robert Reich made that argument in the attached article. He suggested Republicans Fred Upton or Ohio’s David Joyce. I've heard arguments to get a deal with McCarthy, but he is a sleazebag. This deal can eliminate some of the distasteful deals that McCarthy has agreed to put in place that the far right-wing Republicans have insisted upon. Democrats will need Jefferies to negotiate this deal, and then get him to convince Democrats. Some think that the far left will balk, but I think they are pragmatic. They will know that Upton or Joyce is far better than the far likelier alternatives.

     
    We need Democrats to unite with the remaining moderate Republicans to elect a Republican that wants government to function. Robert Reich made that argument in the attached article. He suggested Republicans Fred Upton or Ohio’s David Joyce. I've heard arguments to get a deal with McCarthy, but he is a sleazebag. This deal can eliminate some of the distasteful deals that McCarthy has agreed to put in place that the far right-wing Republicans have insisted upon. Democrats will need Jefferies to negotiate this deal, and then get him to convince Democrats. Some think that the far left will balk, but I think they are pragmatic. They will know that Upton or Joyce is far better than the far likelier alternatives.


    People keep saying this but it’s sadly a fantasy.

    What really needs to happen is a middle party forms.
     
    People keep saying this but it’s sadly a fantasy.

    What really needs to happen is a middle party forms.
    I've heard others say that it's a fantasy, but moderate Republicans also don't want the far right Republicans to have a lot of control. The main barrier is convincing about a dozen of the 40 or so moderate Republicans to shift their support from McCarthy, since that could, and probably would, result in losing support of the RNC. Those moderate Republicans could establish a middle party along with moderate Democrats, but even if they don't, I think they could raise money based on their principles. Democrats could also negotiate concessions from McCarthy, but I would much rather they try to negotiate with a principled Republican.
     
    The problem is that the six Republicans who would need to join with the Democrats to get a moderate Republican speaker elected would be pariahs to their party.
     
    The problem is that the six Republicans who would need to join with the Democrats to get a moderate Republican speaker elected would be pariahs to their party.
    That's the popular narrative that I hear, but there are a couple of dozen Republicans that have stood up to their party on other votes, like voting for the January 6th committee. They may initially lose the support of the RNC, but they would be doing more to save the Republican party than the cowards running it now, so I think they'll eventually get welcomed back, particularly since they will have the power. There may be a few Democrats that won't vote for any Republican, but I think almost all Democrats can be convinced, so it wouldn't be a 1 to 1 Republican gain to Democratic loss. Democrats should at least try to help centrist get more control. The only reason that Democrats may not press for this is that it will actually help the Republican party, but I hope they recognize that is the best thing for the country, and for Biden's agenda. It will prevent a 2 year nightmare of ridiculous, worthless and baseless investigations.
     
    I've heard others say that it's a fantasy, but moderate Republicans also don't want the far right Republicans to have a lot of control. The main barrier is convincing about a dozen of the 40 or so moderate Republicans to shift their support from McCarthy, since that could, and probably would, result in losing support of the RNC. Those moderate Republicans could establish a middle party along with moderate Democrats, but even if they don't, I think they could raise money based on their principles. Democrats could also negotiate concessions from McCarthy, but I would much rather they try to negotiate with a principled Republican.

    Agree 100% - but the party power is still too strong. Just don’t think they see a path to do that.
     

    I think the more telling thing (not that it was a surprise to anyone who's paying attention) is his statement that if McCarthy wants to get any legislation passed, he will need the support of the freedom caucus. If only there were, oh, 212 other people McCarthy could approach to get support for his legislation....
     
    That's the popular narrative that I hear, but there are a couple of dozen Republicans that have stood up to their party on other votes, like voting for the January 6th committee. They may initially lose the support of the RNC, but they would be doing more to save the Republican party than the cowards running it now, so I think they'll eventually get welcomed back, particularly since they will have the power. There may be a few Democrats that won't vote for any Republican, but I think almost all Democrats can be convinced, so it wouldn't be a 1 to 1 Republican gain to Democratic loss. Democrats should at least try to help centrist get more control. The only reason that Democrats may not press for this is that it will actually help the Republican party, but I hope they recognize that is the best thing for the country, and for Biden's agenda. It will prevent a 2 year nightmare of ridiculous, worthless and baseless investigations.

    It comes down to legislation, and concessions. Democrats would want something for voting for the Republican speaker. It would probably have to do with some amount of committee assignments, and investigations.

    No one believes Republicans are going to pass Democrat legislation. If that's the case, Republicans don't actually have a lot to offer Democrats.

    Also from the real politik argument, Democrats want a Republican house clown show. Remind the American public how dysfunctional Republican rule would be for 2024.

    I would remind all the moderates on the board. What are you witnessing could have happened in 2020. Progressives played nice the entirety of the 2 years Democrats had complete control. They could, and some argue, should have pushed for major concessions from the party.
     

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