US strikes deal w/ Taliban to remove troops from Afghanistan (1 Viewer)

[Heathen]

Surprised I didn't see it posted anywhere. And to preface -- I know there are too many contextual complexities to name regarding this.

Props to this administration for pushing to get this done. Endless war shouldn't be what American citizens view as 'normal'.

This would be a huge win for Americans and Afghanis if this works out as planned:

Afghan conflict: US and Taliban sign deal to end 18-year war

President Trump says it is "time after all these years to bring our people back home".

www.bbc.com

The US and Nato allies have agreed to withdraw all troops within 14 months if the militants uphold the deal.

President Trump said it had been a "long and hard journey" in Afghanistan. "It's time after all these years to bring our people back home," he said.

Talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban are due to follow.

Under the agreement, the militants also agreed not to allow al-Qaeda or any other extremist group to operate in the areas they control.

 

[RobF]

Calm before the storm would be my guess.. I'm being serious, outside of this right here, right now is there a reason to believe that there is a kinder, gentler Taliban that's taking over?

With the caveat that 'kinder and gentler' are relative and don't mean 'kind and gentle', technically, yes there's reason... but also emphatically no.

They're saying a lot of things. For example:

“We want to make sure that Afghanistan is not the field of conflict, the battlefield of conflict, any more.”​

​

He added: “We have pardoned anyone, all those who have fought against us. We don’t want to repeat any conflict, any war, again, and we want to do away with the factors for conflict.​

​

“Therefore, the Islamic Emirate does not have any kind of hostility or animosity with anyone, animosities have come to an end, and we would like to live peacefully. We don’t want any internal enemies and any external enemies.”​

(source)​

​

They've also said (same source, just further up), that they're "committed to the rights of women" with the heavy caveat of that being "within the framework of sharia." They've said they're committed to a "free and independent media", with the caveat of "requesting" that "nothing should be against Islamic values." They've also specifically said all translators "have been pardoned,", that "nobody is going to be treated with revenge."

On Afghanistan television, they also had a senior Taliban official being interviewed by a female presenter, which is apparently the first time that's happened.

So, sure, there's reason to think they might mean that. It's the rational approach for them to take in terms of establishing relationships with the international community, which is in their interests.

However.

That doesn't mean they do mean that. People aren't rational. And even if the people saying that do mean it, that doesn't mean all the Taliban agree, and there's already a lot of reports of people being 'treated with revenge', to put it mildly, or 'murdered' to put it accurately. At the same press conference, the Taliban spokesman stated, "Any Taliban soldiers who have carried out house-to-house inspections are “abusers” and will be “chased and investigated”" But will they? Really?

If I had to make a prediction, I'd say it's largely lip service. I wouldn't be surprised to see some level of tokenism in Kabul - slightly less repression of women, for example, slightly less brutality. But less repression and less brutality is still repression and brutality. And elsewhere, in Afghanistan, I can't see it.

 

[bdb13]

With the caveat that 'kinder and gentler' are relative and don't mean 'kind and gentle', technically, yes there's reason... but also emphatically no.

They're saying a lot of things. For example:

“We want to make sure that Afghanistan is not the field of conflict, the battlefield of conflict, any more.”​

​

He added: “We have pardoned anyone, all those who have fought against us. We don’t want to repeat any conflict, any war, again, and we want to do away with the factors for conflict.​

​

“Therefore, the Islamic Emirate does not have any kind of hostility or animosity with anyone, animosities have come to an end, and we would like to live peacefully. We don’t want any internal enemies and any external enemies.”​

(source)​

​

They've also said (same source, just further up), that they're "committed to the rights of women" with the heavy caveat of that being "within the framework of sharia." They've said they're committed to a "free and independent media", with the caveat of "requesting" that "nothing should be against Islamic values." They've also specifically said all translators "have been pardoned,", that "nobody is going to be treated with revenge."

On Afghanistan television, they also had a senior Taliban official being interviewed by a female presenter, which is apparently the first time that's happened.

So, sure, there's reason to think they might mean that. It's the rational approach for them to take in terms of establishing relationships with the international community, which is in their interests.

However.

That doesn't mean they do mean that. People aren't rational. And even if the people saying that do mean it, that doesn't mean all the Taliban agree, and there's already a lot of reports of people being 'treated with revenge', to put it mildly, or 'murdered' to put it accurately. At the same press conference, the Taliban spokesman stated, "Any Taliban soldiers who have carried out house-to-house inspections are “abusers” and will be “chased and investigated”" But will they? Really?

If I had to make a prediction, I'd say it's largely lip service. I wouldn't be surprised to see some level of tokenism in Kabul - slightly less repression of women, for example, slightly less brutality. But less repression and less brutality is still repression and brutality. And elsewhere, in Afghanistan, I can't see it.

Good post, thanks. Yeah, it's more or less a PR campaign in my view.

 

[coldseat]

It should be said that nobody "trust" the Taliban. Nor does it appear to me that the administration is "hoping" the Taliban keeps its word. All indication is that they're dealing with and managing the situation as it occurs. Taliban seems more concerned at the moment with establishing control than getting into fighting with Americans or impeding our departure. That can change at any minute, and any number of things can change the situation on the ground. But with a troop surge of 6,000 I believe (maybe naively given what we've seen) they will be able to finish the withdrawal of all US and NATO personal and most of the Afgan nationals that are applying for visas. The military is very good at short, extremely focused, clearly defined missions. This is clearly that now.

The only reason that I don't say all the Afgan nationals is because it's unclear (and even doubtful) that the US would be able to get all eligible Afgans out. Those that aren't in Kabul will be especially difficult to extract.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

That's not true. EVERYONE knew that the Taliban would try to regain power. What has surprised people is how quickly it happened.

Seems like SOMEONE suspected this fall to happen quickly.

Intelligence Warned of Afghan Military Collapse, Despite Biden’s Assurances (Published 2021)

Even as the president was telling the public that Kabul was unlikely to fall, intelligence assessments painted a grimmer picture.

www.nytimes.com

One report in July — as dozens of Afghan districts were falling and Taliban fighters were laying siege to several major cities — laid out the growing risks to Kabul, noting that the Afghan government was unprepared for a Taliban assault, according to a person familiar with the intelligence.
Intelligence agencies predicted that should the Taliban seize cities, a cascading collapse could happen rapidly and the Afghan security forces were at high risk of falling apart. It is unclear whether other reports during this period presented a more optimistic picture about the ability of the Afghan military and the government in Kabul to withstand the insurgents.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

Seems like SOMEONE suspected this fall to happen quickly.

Intelligence Warned of Afghan Military Collapse, Despite Biden’s Assurances (Published 2021)

Even as the president was telling the public that Kabul was unlikely to fall, intelligence assessments painted a grimmer picture.

www.nytimes.com

Yes, I know. But that is not what you stated in your original post. You stated that some people were surprised the Taliban tried to regain power. No, they weren't.

 

[bdb13]

Seems like SOMEONE suspected this fall to happen quickly.

Intelligence Warned of Afghan Military Collapse, Despite Biden’s Assurances (Published 2021)

Even as the president was telling the public that Kabul was unlikely to fall, intelligence assessments painted a grimmer picture.

www.nytimes.com

Yep, figured. Start getting the leaks now from the intelligent community..

 

[MT15]

Twitter report.

 

[Poison]

Putting any faith in what the Taliban says, or represents they will do, is like asking a crocodile for an assurance that he won't eat someone who falls out of a boat.

The Congressional Research Service published this two months ago: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R45122.pdf

After more than a year of negotiations, U.S. and Taliban representatives signed a bilateral agreement on February 29, 2020, agreeing to two “interconnected” guarantees: the withdrawal of all U.S. and international forces by May 2021, and unspecified Taliban action to prevent other groups (including Al Qaeda) from using Afghan soil to threaten the United States and its allies.1 In the months after the agreement, several U.S. officials asserted that the Taliban were not fulfilling their commitments under the accord, especially with regard to Al Qaeda (see text box below).2 U.S. officials also described increased Taliban violence as “not consistent” with the agreement.3 Although no provisions in the publicly available agreement address Taliban attacks on U.S. or Afghan forces, the Taliban reportedly committed not to attack U.S. forces in nonpublic annexes accompanying the accord. 4 Some lawmakers have raised questions about the executive branch’s decision to classify these annexes.5 In Section 1217 of the FY2021 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, P.L. 116-283)

.

 

[MT15]

 

[samiam5211]

The same is true of the people crossing the southern border.

The children of immigrants have always been what makes this country great.

 

[V Chip]

My nephew who is a loadmaster on the large Air Force transports sent me a picture like this a couple days ago. Said the normal max load for them was about 350 people but the plane in his picture had about 800. A lot of great people helped get them out safely.

 

[JRad]

That's not true. EVERYONE knew that the Taliban would try to regain power. What has surprised people is how quickly it happened.

If you had told me a couple weeks ago the Taliban would have regained power this fast…well, I’d be eating a big ol’ plate of crow right now.

I do, however, think the Taliban is smart enough to not poke the bear, so to speak. They’ll let us finish our evacuation efforts, there’s no gain for them to pull us back in. After we’re totally out, then we’ll see what promises they keep.

 

[wardorican]

The Taliban Claim They'll Respect Women's Rights — With Their Reading Of Islamic Law

The militants' spokesman doubled down on their efforts to convince the world that it has changed and that it will not seek to take revenge.

www.npr.org

The kinder gentler Taliban??

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

I think the best you can do as the U.S. is demand the Taliban constantly allow people who want to leave, a way out. The problem is you can't really know what's going throughout the country as there are no doubt thousands of acts of brutality that won't be accounted for.

 

[DaveXA]

I think the best you can do as the U.S. is demand the Taliban constantly allow people who want to leave, a way out. The problem is you can't really know what's going throughout the country as there are no doubt thousands of acts of brutality that won't be accounted for.

Yeah, they may be "behaving" in Kabul, but I'd be surprised if that's the same elsewhere.

 

[SystemShock]

Trivia: How many Muslims have received a Nobel prize in science?

 

[SystemShock]

The Taliban Claim They'll Respect Women's Rights — With Their Reading Of Islamic Law

The militants' spokesman doubled down on their efforts to convince the world that it has changed and that it will not seek to take revenge.

www.npr.org

The kinder gentler Taliban??

Time will tell, but they could be tired of civil strife. Afghanistan's been either in a civil war or military occupied since the 1970's.